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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreMD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:58 · Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 5 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:28: Terrell Newby 5 Yd Run (Spencer Lindsay Kick) — NEB win probability +2.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:23: Timeout MARYLAND, clock 01:23 — NEB win probability +2.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Jordan Westerkamp 4 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Spencer Lindsay Kick) — NEB win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- SACK · Q2 0:00: Max Bortenschlager sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 27 — MD win probability +1.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:30: Terrell Newby 1 Yd Run (Spencer Lindsay Kick) — NEB win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
- Q1 12:12MD 4th & 10 at NEB 28, tiedClose callWent for it · 17.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.3%−0.129% to convertField goal17.4%60% to makePunt17.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 7:34MD 4th & 9 at MD 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.9%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q1 5:01NEB 4th & 1 at MD 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.0%71% to convertField goal82.6%−0.477% to makePunt81.3%−1.6average punt
- Q1 1:16MD 4th & 5 at NEB 47, down 14Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it15.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:25NEB 4th & 13 at MD 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snapGo for it85.7%−1.118% to convertField goalTheir call86.7%84% to makePunt82.8%−3.9average punt
- Q2 8:00MD 4th & 3 at MD 34, down 14Close callWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.9%average punt
- Q2 6:13MD 4th & 4 at MD 45, down 14Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:23NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 45, up 14Close callWent for it · 87.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.2%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt87.5%average punt
- Q3 13:15NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 28, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q3 11:17MD 4th & 21 at MD 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−1.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q3 2:00MD 4th & 10 at MD 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 14:50NEB 4th & 8 at MD 41, up 28Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%34% to convertField goal99.7%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:12MD 4th & 3 at MD 27, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:11NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 37, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 10:46NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q4 9:49MD 4th & 7 at MD 14, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 7:58NEB 4th & 2 at MD 44, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%57% to convertField goal98.5%−0.427% to makePunt98.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:53NEB 4th & 6 at MD 21, up 21Close callWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%−<0.138% to convertField goal99.1%74% to makePunt98.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:53MD 4th & 15 at MD 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 1:31NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 37, up 21Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:00MD 4th & 3 at NEB 44, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.152% to convertField goal0.6%27% to makePunt0.5%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:42NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:28NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17NEB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:30NEB Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:22MD Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.4%97% to makeGo for two1.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMDDrive 1DOWNS11 plays · 39 yds · 2:4315% → 16%
NEBDrive 2TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:2484% → 85%
Q1 11:16
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+26
83.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 26 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+25
84.0%
Terrell Newby run for 10 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
84.0%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 10 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 1:5116% → 16%
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
84.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+10
84.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+21
84.5%
Wade Lees punt for 36 yds, downed at the NEBRASKA 28 MARYLAND Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Neb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4TD7 plays · 57 yds · 2:5685% → 87%
MDDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5414% → 14%
NEBDrive 6MISSED FG14 plays · 83 yds · 6:1987% → 87%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
87.2%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 26 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
87.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 3 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
87.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Terrell Newby for 5 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
87.1%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 3 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-9
87.4%
Ryker Fyfe sacked by Shane Cockerille for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4714% → 14%
Q2 8:00
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+5
86.4%
Wade Lees pass complete to Kenneth Goins Jr. for 5 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
86.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 6 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
86.4%
Wade Lees punt for 33 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8TD20 plays · 78 yds · 5:3887% → 96%
Q2 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-3
86.8%
Ryker Fyfe sacked by Shane Cockerille for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+6
86.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 6 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-2
88.1%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Tre Bryant for 13 yds to the NEBRASKA 40 NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+14
89.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Cethan Carter for 14 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
89.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+5
90.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.6%
Jordan Westerkamp 4 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Spencer Lindsay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
94.3%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0796% → 96%
MDDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 1:285% → 4%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
95.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-9
95.7%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 21
OWN 34
+13
95.9%
Wade Lees punt for 48 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 13 yds to the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12TD16 plays · 69 yds · 7:2097% → 100%
Q3 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
96.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 3 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
96.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+8
96.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+10
97.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 10 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+8
97.0%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 8 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:210% → 0%
NEBDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 11 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:230% → 0%
NEBDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 1 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 13:11
4TH & 9
OWN 37
-2
99.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 54 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 7 Teldrick Morgan fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD3 plays · 93 yds · 0:270% → 1%
NEBDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:411% → 1%
Q4 9:49
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
98.9%
Wade Lees punt for 38 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 18 yds · 3:3099% → 100%
Q4 8:45
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+11
99.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Terrell Newby for 11 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
99.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 5 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 6
OPP 21
-13
99.5%
Ryker Fyfe sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 13 yards to the Mary 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21FUMBLE4 plays · -5 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
99.2%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Ross Dzuris for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+5
99.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 5 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-3
99.4%
Max Bortenschlager run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 29 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+3
99.4%
Wade Lees punt for 46 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 3 yds to the Neb 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+7
99.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 51 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 7 yds to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23FUMBLE10 plays · 29 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 4 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+12
99.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 12 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jake Funk for 5 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 7 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-8
99.5%
Max Bortenschlager sacked by Marcus Newby for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 48 Max Bortenschlager fumbled, recovered by Mary Mike Minter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Jordan Westerkamp 4 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Spencer Lindsay Kick)
+6.4
TD · Q1 4:28
Terrell Newby 5 Yd Run (Spencer Lindsay Kick)
+2.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:23
Timeout MARYLAND, clock 01:23
+2.6