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NU

Northwestern 12 at Minnesota 29

MINN
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:02 · Ryan Santoso punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+11.6Pregame prior+4.6Score differential+5.0Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:40: Emmit Carpenter 19 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +3.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:21: Emmit Carpenter 42 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +5.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:28: Emmit Carpenter 30 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +5.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:17: Justin Jackson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — NU win probability +8.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:46: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +11.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:18NU 4th & 20 at NU 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16MINN 4th & 8 at NU 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:13NU 4th & 6 at MINN 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:13MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:25NU 4th & 6 at NU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:04NU 4th & 16 at NU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:40MINN 4th & 1 at NU 1, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:05NU 4th & 1 at MINN 16, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−2.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−8.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:50MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 29, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:21MINN 4th & 5 at NU 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 2 at NU 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:02MINN 4th & 12 at midfield, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:28NU 4th & 7 at NU 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:28MINN 4th & 13 at NU 13, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−7.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:28NU 4th & 5 at MINN 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:10NU 4th & 1 at MINN 13, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−4.0
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−16.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 7, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:24NU 4th & 4 at MINN 43, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−3.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−2.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:31NU 4th & 12 at MINN 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 12:18MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:17NU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:46MINN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:46NU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.8%−0.9
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:31MINN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4260% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
59.7%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+32
59.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 32 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+19
59.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 19 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
59.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+16
59.7%
Rodney Smith run for 16 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.9%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
60.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
60.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 1 yd to the Nwest 16 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-11
60.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Gaelin Elmore and Carter Coughlin for a loss of 11 yards to the Nwest 5Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 20
OWN 5
+61
60.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 51 yds, downed at the MINNESOTA 44 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
61.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
61.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 1 yd to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
61.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
60.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+7
60.7%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
60.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
60.6%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-1
60.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Minn Steven Richardson , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
50
+7
62.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-5
62.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Jonah Pirsig) to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
62.4%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
62.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Anthony Walker Jr.Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
61.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:1338% → 38%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
61.9%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
62.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+19
62.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 19 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
61.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 20 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
61.0%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
60.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
60.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-5
61.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (J.B. Butler) to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+3
61.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
62.0%
Jack Mitchell 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
63.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
63.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
63.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+5
62.5%
Ryan Santoso punt for 37 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
62.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
61.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Duke McGheeSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
62.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+2
63.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for 2 yds to the Minn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:3764% → 65%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
63.7%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
63.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 12 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
64.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+11
64.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 11 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.0%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Marcus McShepard return for no gain to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
63.4%
Justin Jackson run for 19 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
62.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-10
62.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 16
OWN 32
-2
64.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:1866% → 70%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
65.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+62
64.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 62 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
67.2%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.2%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.5%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 7:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
69.5%
Emmit Carpenter 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:3530% → 29%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
69.0%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
68.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 18 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
67.8%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+21
68.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 21 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
66.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+7
67.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 7 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
67.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-3
70.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:1173% → 72%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
72.8%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+3
73.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
72.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
73.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
72.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
72.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 30 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Minn Julian Huff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4577% → 79%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
76.5%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+4
75.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+6
75.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 6 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
78.5%
Emmit Carpenter 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Duke McGheeSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
78.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
77.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
76.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
77.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.0%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
80.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-4
80.2%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 12
50
0
78.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
78.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
78.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 4 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-5
78.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Winston DeLattiboudere for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
79.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:1683% → 87%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
82.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+20
82.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 20 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
82.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+7
82.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 7 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+17
82.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 17 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 2Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-11
82.3%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 11 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
87.4%
Emmit Carpenter 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1114% → 24%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
86.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
85.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+15
85.5%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Carr, Austin (McGhee, D), PENALTY MINN personal foul (McGhee, D) 15 yards to the MINN44, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
85.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin Jackson, broken up by Julian HuffSimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+5
85.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+5
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 5 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
83.8%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
83.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Eric Olson) to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
84.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+14
84.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 14 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+10
84.4%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Minn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.4%
Justin Jackson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
76.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
77.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+8
78.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
79.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4982% → 80%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
82.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-2
82.0%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 11
-4
81.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 7Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 7
0
80.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
79.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 11
50
+7
80.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 7 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
79.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Jonathan CelestinSimilar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
80.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:2683% → 96%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
83.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+26
82.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 26 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
84.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
85.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
85.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+4
85.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
85.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 10 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
85.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
85.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+7
84.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
85.3%
Leidner, Mitch pass complete to Carter, Eric for 2 yards to the NU2 (Igwebuike, G.), PENALTY MINN illegal formation 5 yards to the NU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:005% → 8%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
95.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for no gain to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
95.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 12 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
94.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 10 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
94.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 4
50
+10
94.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 10 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
94.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Yoshoub Timms for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+2
94.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
94.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 12
OPP 42
+10
95.3%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Scanlan, Andrew, PENALTY MINN holding 10 yards to the MINN32, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
93.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+14
93.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 14 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 28TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:1595% → 99%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
94.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
98.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 12 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
98.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 25 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
97.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew Scanlan, broken up by Ray BufordSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
97.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-2
97.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
97.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett Dickerson, broken up by Antoine Winfield Jr. NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:46
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q3 2:17
Justin Jackson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-8
FG · Q2 0:21
Emmit Carpenter 42 yd FG GOOD
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com