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IOWA

Iowa 28 at Illinois 0

ILL
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:14 · Ryan Frain punt for 23 yds, downed at the Iowa 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior−23.7Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. PUNT · Q2 4:33: David Reisner punt for 50 yds , Riley McCarron returns for 55 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +6.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:51: LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +10.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:40: LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 40 — IOWA win probability +3.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:55: Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 21 — ILL win probability +3.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:04: LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line — IOWA win probability +8.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 13IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:45IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:47ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:11IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:14ILL 4th & 11 at IOWA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:35IOWA 4th & 11 at ILL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:06ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:06ILL 4th & 3 at IOWA 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−0.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:14IOWA 4th & 2 at ILL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:33ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:33ILL 4th & 2 at IOWA 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:25IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 11, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:15ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:51ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:40IOWA 4th & 19 at IOWA 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−2.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:08IOWA 4th & 14 at ILL 23, up 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.5%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−6.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:55ILL 4th & 3 at IOWA 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:41ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 48, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:41ILL 4th & 11 at IOWA 30, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 7:51IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:17IOWA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:41IOWA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
23.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 16 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
23.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Tyler White for no gain to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
23.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+3
23.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 3 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
23.4%
Ryan Frain punt for 27 yds, downed at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.5%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
24.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
24.5%
Drake Kulick run for 1 yd to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
24.6%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
25.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
25.6%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+14
25.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 14 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
25.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
25.8%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
25.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
25.4%
Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds, downed at the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
26.8%
Riley McCarron run for 2 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-5
27.0%
IOWA Penalty, false start (Keegan Render) to the Iowa 12Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+2
27.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 2 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+7
27.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 43 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
50
0
28.5%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
50
+7
28.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 7 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
28.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 4 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
28.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Tyler WhiteSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
28.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-6
28.5%
Wes Lunt sacked by Jaleel Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 40 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
27.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 23 yds, downed at the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
28.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+16
28.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 16 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
28.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 17 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
27.9%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
28.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarronSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
28.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
29.2%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
30.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Christian DiLauro) to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
30.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach Grant, broken up by Brandon SnyderSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
30.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+11
30.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 11 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
29.7%
David Reisner punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8INT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:1871% → 69%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
29.2%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 35Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
30.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarron, broken up by Cameron WatkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+1
30.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 1 yd to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 36
0
30.8%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted Dillan Cazley return for no gain to the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.3%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
33.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 8 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-1
33.1%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
32.3%
Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10FUMBLE
12 plays · 79 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
31.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 11 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
31.5%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-2
31.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
32.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Noah Fant for 10 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
30.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
30.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Noah Fant for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+12
30.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 12 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
29.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Noah Fant, broken up by Dawuane SmootSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
29.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
30.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+17
30.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 17 yds to the Illin 1 Akrum Wadley fumbled, forced by Tre Watson, recovered by Illin Jamal MilanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 7:4133% → 25%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
32.6%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
32.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
31.8%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+55
25.0%
David Reisner punt for 50 yds , Riley McCarron returns for 55 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
26.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 9 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
26.8%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+5
26.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
26.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 17 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
28.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
29.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
28.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
27.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 46 yds, downed at the Iowa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2375% → 74%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
25.3%
Brady Ross run for 2 yds to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
24.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Iowa 9Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+2
25.5%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
25.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 42 yds, downed at the Illin 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0027% → 24%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.7%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
26.4%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
24.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach Grant, broken up by Brandon SnyderSimilar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 13
OWN 44
+17
24.3%
Ryan Frain punt for 47 yds , Riley McCarron returns for 17 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
23.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
25.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
25.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 47 yds, downed at the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 6:1275% → 88%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
25.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 31 LeShun Daniels Jr. fumbled, forced by Rob Bain, recovered by Iowa Adrian FalconerSimilar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
24.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
24.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 16 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
23.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+10
22.8%
Akrum Wadley run for 10 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
22.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+10
22.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 10 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
22.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+10
22.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 10 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.7%
C.J. Beathard run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
15.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Tyler White for 1 yd to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
15.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
14.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 4 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
14.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
11.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
11.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 17
OWN 40
-5
11.8%
IOWA Penalty, false start (Riley McCarron) to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 22
OWN 35
+3
12.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to LeShun Daniels Jr. for 3 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
12.6%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
13.0%
Kendrick Foster run for 9 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+4
13.0%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
13.1%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Desmond King return for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 26 yds · 4:5790% → 93%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
10.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
10.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 7 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
10.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
10.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+8
10.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 8 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
10.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
8.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-15
8.7%
IOWA Penalty, tripping (Sean Welsh) to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 30
+12
9.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 12 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-5
9.2%
IOWA Penalty, false start (Sean Welsh) to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
6.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Noah FantSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+5
7.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Noah Fant for 5 yds to the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
11.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
11.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+6
11.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 6 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
11.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-2
11.7%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+13
11.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
12.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
12.5%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+7
12.0%
Wes Lunt run for 7 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
12.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:4796% → 99%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
4.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
50
+50
0.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 50 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
0.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+9
0.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 9 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
0.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+11
0.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 11 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
0.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 6 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Kendrick FosterSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+9
0.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to D.J. Taylor for 9 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 5 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+9
0.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to D.J. Taylor for 9 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to D.J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.2%
Wes Lunt sacked by Cedrick Lattimore for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 30 Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by Illin Joe Spencer , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 11
OPP 30
0
0.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to D.J. Taylor, broken up by Bo BowerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
0.1%
Toks Akinribade run for 3 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
0.1%
Toks Akinribade run for 2 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+3
0.1%
Toks Akinribade run for 3 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:51
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)
-10.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:04
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
-8.4
PUNT · Q2 4:33
David Reisner punt for 50 yds , Riley McCarron returns for 55 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com