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NU

Northwestern 45 at Purdue 17

PUR
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+3.4PUR 31.9%David Blough run for 1 yd for a TD,(J.D. Dellinger KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 6:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:10 · David Blough run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior−22.8Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:06: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 33 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +5.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:34: Justin Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +9.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:13: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +13.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:22: David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 49 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +9.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:00: Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +10.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:53PUR 4th & 1 at NU 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53NU 4th & 2 at PUR 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10PUR 4th & 1 at NU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10NU 4th & 1 at NU 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00PUR 4th & 13 at NU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:29NU 4th & 6 at NU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:09PUR 4th & 2 at NU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:06PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 40, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:00PUR 4th & 16 at NU 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:16NU 4th & 3 at PUR 6, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:23NU 4th & 1 at PUR 1, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:16PUR 4th & 11 at NU 47, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:16PUR 4th & 10 at NU 15, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:10PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:56NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:06NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:34NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:13NU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:22PUR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:00NU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:57NU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:0724% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
24.3%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 16 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
24.3%
David Blough pass complete to Malik Kimbrough for no gain to the Prdue 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
24.3%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 12 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
24.3%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
24.3%
Markell Jones run for 11 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
24.3%
Markell Jones run for 7 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
24.3%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
24.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 3 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
24.3%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
24.3%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Nwest 9Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+26
26.8%
J.D. Dellinger 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
26.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+31
26.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 31 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
26.3%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
26.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Da'Wan HunteSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
26.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-1
26.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+50
26.5%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted C.J. Parker return for 50 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3TD
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2429% → 32%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
28.7%
David Blough pass complete to Malik Kimbrough for 3 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+9
28.7%
Markell Jones run for 9 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
28.7%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 8 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+4
28.7%
David Blough run for 4 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
28.7%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 7 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
28.5%
David Blough run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.9%
David Blough run for 1 yd for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
31.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
31.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
31.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
31.1%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
31.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
31.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bilal Marshall at the Prdue 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
34.3%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
34.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal Marshall, broken up by Trae WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+2
33.8%
David Blough pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for 2 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:3567% → 69%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
33.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 20 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
33.0%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
33.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 1:5632% → 32%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.8%
Markell Jones run for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
32.0%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 14 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
32.7%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 5 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
32.8%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
32.7%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
34.5%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-3
34.3%
David Blough sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
33.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo Yancey, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
32.3%
Joe Schopper punt for 39 yds, downed at the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
34.5%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
34.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
35.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Myles NorwoodSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
35.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
36.9%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-1
36.9%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+9
35.7%
David Blough run for 9 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
35.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4964% → 72%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
35.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
36.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 8 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
35.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 5 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
34.9%
Justin Jackson run for 16 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
34.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
34.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 8 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
34.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
28.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 33 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
30.9%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
30.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
30.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
29.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12INT
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:5170% → 70%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
29.9%
Justin Jackson run for 15 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
28.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
29.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 8 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
29.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
28.9%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+20
28.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 20 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
28.2%
John Moten IV run for 8 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-5
28.2%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 10Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
30.1%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Markus Bailey return for no gain to the Prdue 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:5432% → 33%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
32.3%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 10Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+7
32.4%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 7 yds to the Prdue 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
32.7%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+7
33.1%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 7 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
33.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo Yancey, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
33.0%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 4 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
32.4%
David Blough pass complete to David Yancey for 5 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-2
33.0%
Joe Schopper punt for 45 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14END OF HALF
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:0869% → 71%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
31.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 21
0
30.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew ScanlanSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+12
31.5%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
30.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
29.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Jacob ThienemanSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
30.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+14
30.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 14 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
28.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
29.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+29
28.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 29 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:2669% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
31.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+11
31.1%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
29.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+9
29.7%
John Moten IV run for 9 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
29.3%
John Moten IV run for 6 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+26
29.0%
John Moten IV run for 26 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
20.0%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0021% → 24%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.4%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
22.4%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 8 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
22.6%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 11 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
23.5%
David Blough pass intercepted Anthony Walker Jr. return for 17 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
10.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5112% → 22%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
12.1%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 20 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
13.1%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 6 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+49
22.3%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 49 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2280% → 91%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
20.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
19.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
19.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 16 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+37
19.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 37 yds to the Prdue 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
18.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
18.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT
14 plays · 31 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
11.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
11.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+12
11.0%
David Blough run for 12 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
12.2%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
12.3%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 7 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
12.5%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jason King) to the Prdue 43Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+5
11.7%
David Blough pass complete to Malik Kimbrough for 5 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+2
11.7%
David Blough pass complete to Brian Lankford-Johnson for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 13
50
+17
11.5%
David Blough run for 17 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
12.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
12.8%
David Blough run for no gain to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-6
12.3%
David Blough sacked by Xavier Washington for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
11.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 30 yds, downed at the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:0994% → 99%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
6.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+16
6.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 16 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
5.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
5.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+14
6.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 14 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
5.5%
John Moten IV run for 9 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+27
5.3%
John Moten IV run for 27 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
5.2%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Prdue 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.7%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
0.8%
David Blough pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for 2 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 5:2799% → 100%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
0.8%
John Moten IV run for 6 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+10
0.8%
John Moten IV run for 10 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
0.8%
John Moten IV run for 8 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
0.8%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Prdue 18Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+5
0.8%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
0.8%
Corey Acker run for 2 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
0.8%
John Moten IV run for 6 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-1
0.7%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 6Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
0.3%
Jack Mitchell 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Brian Lankford-Johnson run for no gain to the Prdue 25Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Trent Goens return for 23 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
0.2%
Tom Hruby run for 1 yd to the Prdue 6Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
0.2%
Tom Hruby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 8Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
0.2%
Matt Alviti run for 7 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
Tom Hruby run for no gain to the Prdue 2 Tom Hruby fumbled, recovered by Nwest Tom HrubySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26DOWNS
19 plays · 83 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
0.2%
David Yancey run for 3 yds to the Prdue 5Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+2
0.2%
David Yancey run for 2 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+5
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terrance Landers for 5 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
0.2%
David Yancey run for 1 yd to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+2
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terrance Landers for 2 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+20
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jack Wegher for 20 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 8 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 11 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
0.2%
Jack Wegher run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Anthony MahoungouSimilar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 11
OPP 47
+11
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 6 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-2
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+17
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jack Wegher for 17 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Anthony Mahoungou, broken up by Roderick CampbellSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Terrance LandersSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 14Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:13
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 8:00
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q3 10:22
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 49 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com