Try the model
MICH

Michigan 13 at Iowa 14

IOWA
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Kinnick Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:37 · Kenny Allen punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior−17.1Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:27: C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — IOWA win probability +7.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: One-score game).
  2. FG · Q3 9:55: Keith Duncan 25 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +6.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:35: Kenny Allen 51 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +13.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49: De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 17 — MICH win probability +23.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Keith Duncan 33 Yd Field Goal — IOWA win probability +64.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:28IOWA 4th & 8 at MICH 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:00MICH 4th & 8 at IOWA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:25IOWA 4th & 6 at MICH 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:41IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:19IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:14MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27IOWA 4th & 3 at MICH 3, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:19MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 40, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:52IOWA 4th & 1 at MICH 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−4.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:55IOWA 4th & 7 at MICH 7, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−11.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:51MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:44IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 13, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−4.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:37MICH 4th & 10 at IOWA 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:15IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 39, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−4.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:35MICH 4th & 7 at IOWA 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−3.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:39IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:23MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−9.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:56MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:27IOWA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1811% → 12%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
10.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
11.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
11.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 9 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
11.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
50
0
11.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
50
-1
12.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+3
12.2%
C.J. Beathard run for 3 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
12.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2088% → 86%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
12.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+9
12.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
12.8%
Chris Evans run for 12 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
13.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
13.1%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
13.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
13.7%
Kenny Allen punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1414% → 14%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
13.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Nate WietingSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+1
13.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 1 yd to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 9
OWN 36
-5
13.9%
Ron Coluzzi run for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4FG
12 plays · 23 yds · 3:2786% → 85%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
13.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Bush) to the Iowa 46, (Devin Bush ejected)Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
13.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
14.1%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Iowa 40Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+12
14.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Henry Poggi for 12 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
14.3%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
14.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
14.6%
Jabrill Peppers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 19Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+9
14.9%
IOWA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Desmond King) to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
14.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Iowa 8Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 4:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
15.3%
Kenny Allen 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:1215% → 18%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
15.3%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
15.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
15.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
15.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
16.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 7 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
17.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
17.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
17.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 22 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
18.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
18.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-2
18.7%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
18.4%
Miguel Recinos 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:0682% → 85%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
17.6%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+8
17.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 8 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
17.4%
Jabrill Peppers run for 7 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
17.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
17.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 29 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
17.5%
Eddie McDoom run for 6 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
17.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
18.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 5 yds to the Iowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
14.8%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5115% → 15%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
14.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 16 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.9%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
14.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
15.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
14.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 54 yds, downed at the Mich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0585% → 84%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
15.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-2
15.7%
Jaleel Johnson SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5916% → 15%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
15.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Akrum WadleySimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
15.5%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
15.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarronSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
14.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5985% → 83%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
15.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 1 yd to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
16.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+5
16.7%
Kenny Allen punt for 36 yds , Desmond King returns for 5 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:1717% → 25%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
17.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+27
17.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 27 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
18.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 7 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+8
18.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryan Mone) to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
19.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
19.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 4 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
17.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4578% → 75%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
22.2%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jaleel Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+10
24.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 10 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
22.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+4
24.6%
Kenny Allen punt for 52 yds , Desmond King returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
24.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:4329% → 39%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
29.0%
Jerminic Smith run for 8 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
30.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
29.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
28.5%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
31.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 12 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
32.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 12 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
32.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
33.2%
C.J. Beathard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
32.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to LeShun Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
38.5%
Keith Duncan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5563% → 61%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.3%
Chris Evans run for 8 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
36.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
38.7%
Kenny Allen punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4439% → 38%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
38.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 16Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
38.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-6
38.3%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 13Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+19
38.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 54 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 19 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3964% → 58%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
36.3%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 49Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-2
37.4%
Wilton Speight sacked by Parker Hesse for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 49 Wilton Speight fumbled, forced by Parker Hesse, recovered by Mich Lavert Hill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+3
40.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chris Evans for 3 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
42.3%
Kenny Allen punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:5943% → 45%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
43.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
44.1%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
43.6%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
45.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+6
48.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
49.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-12
49.9%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 34 IOWA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (C.J. Beathard) to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 21
OWN 34
+5
44.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 5 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
44.7%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:2753% → 67%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
47.1%
Chris Evans run for 7 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+6
47.0%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
47.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
48.1%
Wilton Speight run for 4 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+17
49.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 17 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
45.1%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
44.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
45.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+15
48.3%
IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Snyder) to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
44.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
43.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-6
45.9%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+51
32.7%
Kenny Allen 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3640% → 36%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
39.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
40.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Riley McCarronSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
38.8%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Adrian FalconerSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
36.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 33 yds, downed at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21INT
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:2569% → 76%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
30.7%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
30.9%
Jabrill Peppers run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
30.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Drake Harris for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
50
+7
29.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
29.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
27.1%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
27.6%
Eddie McDoom run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+3
23.5%
Wilton Speight run for 3 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
23.6%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted Manny Rugamba return for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4239% → 43%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
40.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
40.8%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
39.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 10 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.3%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted Channing Stribling return for no gain to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:2680% → 80%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
19.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 17Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
18.3%
Jabrill Peppers run for 1 yd to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
19.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+8
20.1%
Kenny Allen punt for 41 yds , Desmond King returns for 8 yds to the Mich 26 MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:1640% → 94%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
39.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 10 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
41.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
37.6%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+8
31.1%
C.J. Beathard run for 8 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+33
94.3%
Keith Duncan 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Keith Duncan 33 Yd Field Goal
+64.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 17
-23.6
FG · Q4 9:35
Kenny Allen 51 yd FG GOOD
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com