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PSU

Penn State 45 at Indiana 31

IU
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:51 · Joseph Gedeon punt for 46 yds, downed at the PnSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior−2.4Home team on offense+7.1Garbage-time factor+3.1Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:13: Devine Redding run for 6 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +15.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:09: Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +20.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:23: Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +27.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:06: Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +28.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:58: Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +39.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:30IU 4th & 1 at IU 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42IU 4th & 20 at IU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:56PSU 4th & 2 at IU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:03PSU 4th & 1 at IU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−2.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:49PSU 4th & 9 at IU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:05IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:38IU 4th & 6 at PSU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:42IU 4th & 1 at PSU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−13.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:54PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:29IU 4th & 11 at IU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−4.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:51IU 4th & 19 at IU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−11.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:49IU 4th & 3 at IU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:07PSU 4th & 8 at IU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−8.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:28PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:13IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:43PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:00IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:13IU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:09PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:23PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:06IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:58PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:0271% → 71%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
29.5%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
29.6%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+32
29.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 32 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
29.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 17 yds to the Ind 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
29.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 9Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
30.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacob Robinson) to the Ind 4Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
30.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 10Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
29.5%
Trace McSorley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3530% → 30%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 1 yd to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
29.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 11 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
30.0%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
30.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 5 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
30.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+19
30.2%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 44 yds , John Reid returns for 19 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0670% → 70%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
29.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
29.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
29.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
29.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0231% → 30%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
30.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 9 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-4
30.9%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 45Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+13
30.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 13 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
31.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
31.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-10
30.8%
Richard Lagow sacked by Garrett Sickels and Kevin Givens for a loss of 10 yards to the Ind 48Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 20
OWN 48
+14
30.1%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 47 yds , John Reid returns for 14 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3070% → 70%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-12
30.2%
Trace McSorley sacked by Greg Gooch for a loss of 12 yards to the PnSt 7 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Trace McSorley) to the PnSt 7Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 22
OWN 7
+2
30.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 2 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+45
30.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 45 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
29.4%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Ind 45Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
29.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Irvin CharlesSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+7
29.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
30.3%
Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the Ind 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:2832% → 32%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
31.5%
Devine Redding run for 16 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
32.4%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
31.9%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+17
31.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Camion Patrick for 17 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
32.7%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
32.7%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+2
32.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 2 yds Mitchell Paige fumbled, forced by Malik Golden, recovered by PnSt Brandon BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2769% → 68%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
30.8%
Andre Robinson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-5
31.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Jacob Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
31.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3732% → 40%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
32.0%
INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+2
31.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 23
OWN 27
+27
31.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Donavan Hale for 27 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
32.9%
Devine Redding run for 8 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+24
33.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 24 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
33.8%
Devine Redding run for 10 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.9%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the PnSt 4Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
33.9%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3563% → 61%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
37.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 13
OWN 8
0
38.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 13
OWN 8
0
38.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 13
OWN 8
0
39.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4141% → 42%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
40.6%
Devonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
41.3%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+15
40.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 15 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
41.8%
Devonte Williams run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 46 Devonte Williams fumbled, recovered by PnSt Kevin GivensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5964% → 63%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
36.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 6
50
+5
36.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
36.2%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-4
36.8%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
42.9%
Mitchell Paige run for 5 yds to the PnSt 46 Mitchell Paige fumbled, forced by Shareef Miller, recovered by PnSt Malik GoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FUMBLE
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:5964% → 62%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
35.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
36.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+11
37.7%
Trace McSorley run for 11 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
35.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Ind 33 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 43Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 9
OPP 43
0
36.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
36.1%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+2
36.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
38.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 37 yds , Isaac James returns for no gain to the Ind 6 Isaac James fumbled, recovered by PnSt Christian CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
27.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1529% → 28%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
29.4%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 22Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
29.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
28.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wes Rogers) to the Ind 12Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+17
28.3%
Devine Redding run for 17 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+48
28.0%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 38 yds , John Reid returns for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 28 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4572% → 72%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
28.3%
Trace McSorley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
27.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+34
28.5%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Rashard Fant return for 34 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:5633% → 47%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
33.4%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-8
33.5%
Richard Lagow sacked by Evan Schwan for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+18
30.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Donavan Hale for 18 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
33.6%
Devine Redding run for 7 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+12
47.3%
Devine Redding run for 12 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:3060% → 60%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
39.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+21
39.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 21 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
39.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-8
40.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0344% → 51%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
43.8%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+9
44.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 9 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
44.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+3
44.2%
Alex Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+34
43.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 34 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
48.8%
Alex Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
49.1%
Alex Rodriguez run for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-2
47.9%
Alex Rodriguez run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
50.9%
Griffin Oakes 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4351% → 49%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
49.3%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Connor McGovern) to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
50.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+16
51.4%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Tony Fields return for 16 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:4356% → 54%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
55.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 9 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
55.6%
Ricky Brookins run for 2 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
55.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 11 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
56.5%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wes Rogers) to the PnSt 17Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+10
56.8%
Tyler Natee run for 10 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
57.2%
Tyler Natee run for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
56.5%
Devine Redding run for 6 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.4%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:4249% → 46%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
51.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+21
52.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 21 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
51.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 12 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
49.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-2
48.6%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
52.3%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
54.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:1755% → 76%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
54.7%
Tyler Natee run for 6 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+9
55.9%
Tyler Natee run for 9 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
57.6%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Camion Patrick for 52 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
60.7%
Tyler Natee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
76.3%
Devine Redding run for 6 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:4628% → 52%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
72.1%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+43
74.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 43 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
68.8%
Andre Robinson run for 5 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+5
68.8%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete, PENALTY INDIANA offside (Scales, Tegray) 5 yards to the INDIANA21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
48.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 21 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2657% → 59%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.4%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
58.4%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 38Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-4
57.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Brookins for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+3
58.9%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 43 yds , Gregg Garrity returns for 3 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:5942% → 76%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
58.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 12 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
56.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+54
54.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 54 yds to the Ind 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
51.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 4Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1234% → 69%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 11 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
35.4%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 37Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+22
35.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Camion Patrick for 22 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
39.9%
Alex Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+40
68.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:5041% → 36%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
59.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
59.5%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Gesicki, Mike, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Riggins, A'Shon) 15 yards to the PENNST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
55.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 26 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
51.7%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Blacknall, Saeed, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Blacknall, Saeed) 15 yards to the INDIANA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 25
OPP 40
-6
57.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Nile Sykes for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 31
OPP 46
-1
58.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 32
OPP 47
0
61.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 32
OPP 47
0
63.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0467% → 64%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
67.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wes Martin) to the Ind 10Similar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+1
66.9%
Tyler Natee run for 1 yd to the Ind 11Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 19
OWN 11
0
66.4%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 19
OWN 11
0
64.7%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
63.7%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 46 yds, downed at the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:4641% → 83%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
58.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 13 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
56.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+26
56.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 26 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
53.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+13
53.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds to the Ind 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
56.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4530% → 24%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
29.5%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
29.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+3
26.2%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
24.4%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 32FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3887% → 94%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
12.9%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
11.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
6.9%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+39
5.6%
Tyler Davis 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 33FUMBLE TD
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:2612% → 2%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
11.9%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
11.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+14
10.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 14 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
2.2%
Richard Lagow sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 18 yards Richard Lagow fumbled, forced by Brandon Bell, recovered by PnSt Torrence Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 9 yds, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 34END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
2.2%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Ind 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:58
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-39.8
TD · Q4 11:06
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)
+28.8
TD · Q4 12:23
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-27.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com