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WIS

Wisconsin 21 at Northwestern 7

NU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Quintez Cephus
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense−5.0Pregame prior−7.9Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:33: Jazz Peavy 46 Yd Run (Andrew Endicott Kick) — WIS win probability +7.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:39: Austin Carr 13 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick) — NU win probability +15.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:00: Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 38 — NU win probability +6.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:10: Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Nwest 36 — WIS win probability +10.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:57: Corey Clement 2 Yd Run (Alec Ingold Run for Two-Point Conversion) — WIS win probability +14.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:50WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28NU 4th & 3 at NU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:50WIS 4th & 10 at NU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:37NU 4th & 1 at WIS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:10WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:24NU 4th & 7 at NU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:11WIS 4th & 7 at NU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:58NU 4th & 7 at NU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:48NU 4th & 6 at NU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:41WIS 4th & 11 at NU 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:45NU 4th & 1 at WIS 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.1%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:20NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:48WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:20NU 4th & 7 at NU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:06WIS 4th & 4 at NU 10, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−11.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:48NU 4th & 8 at NU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:13WIS 4th & 8 at NU 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−1.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:06NU 4th & 10 at NU 35, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:23WIS 4th & 5 at NU 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.5
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:36NU 4th & 6 at NU 6, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:34WIS 4th & 10 at NU 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:17NU 4th & 1 at NU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:33WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:39NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:57WIS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    88.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0165% → 65%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.7%
Corey Clement run for 8 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
34.8%
Corey Clement run for 8 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
35.0%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
35.1%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
35.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
35.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0436% → 36%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
35.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+7
35.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 7 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
36.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
36.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
36.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:1464% → 62%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
36.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 11 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
36.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+13
36.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 13 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
36.2%
Corey Clement run for 15 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
36.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
36.4%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+7
36.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Corey Clement for 7 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
36.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+3
36.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
36.5%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-1
36.7%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
37.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
37.9%
Andrew Endicott 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:5438% → 40%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+17
38.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 17 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
38.9%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+19
38.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 19 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
40.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
40.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
40.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 3 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
40.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Wisc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1261% → 60%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
38.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyle Penniston) to the Wisc 24Similar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+10
39.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 10 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
39.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Corey Clement for 4 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
39.2%
Alex Hornibrook run for no gain to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
40.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3841% → 40%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
40.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
40.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+4
40.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 4 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 14:24
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
39.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, downed at the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3961% → 61%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
38.8%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
39.3%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+32
40.1%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 32 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
38.0%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
38.3%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
39.1%
Bart Houston run for no gain to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
38.6%
Andrew Endicott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0239% → 38%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.4%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
39.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
38.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
38.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:0862% → 71%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
38.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 11 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
37.6%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
37.5%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
36.9%
Alec Ingold run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
29.4%
Jazz Peavy 46 Yd Run (Andrew Endicott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3330% → 30%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
30.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 15 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
31.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
31.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+3
30.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
29.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:4170% → 72%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
30.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 12 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
29.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for 25 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
28.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
28.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 1 yd to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
28.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Matthew Harris) to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
28.2%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+3
28.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-2
27.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
28.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 26 yds, downed at the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 0:5627% → 44%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
27.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
27.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+28
27.0%
Justin Jackson run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
50
0
29.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew ScanlanSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
50
0
29.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
50
+9
28.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+28
28.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 28 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
43.6%
Austin Carr 13 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:3065% → 62%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
35.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
35.6%
Alex Hornibrook run for 2 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
36.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
37.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2440% → 38%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
40.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
39.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 14:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
37.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 30 yds, downed at the Wisc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1164% → 61%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
36.5%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-1
36.5%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
37.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
39.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 53 yds, downed at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5439% → 37%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
39.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 4Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
39.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
37.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 7
OWN 6
+24
37.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 50 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 24 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5865% → 70%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
35.5%
A.J. Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+5
37.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 5 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+15
35.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to George Rushing for 15 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
34.0%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
34.0%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
35.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
30.4%
Andrew Endicott 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1235% → 33%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
34.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 13 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
36.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
37.9%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
34.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+1
33.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:2069% → 72%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
31.5%
Corey Clement run for 13 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
30.5%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
29.6%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+17
28.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 17 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
26.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+2
26.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
27.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Xavier Washington) to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
26.6%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
25.1%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
25.0%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
25.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
27.9%
Andrew Endicott 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:3134% → 35%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
33.9%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
36.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+32
35.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 32 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
40.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 8 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
40.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
40.2%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eric Olson) to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
39.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 20
OPP 29
-1
37.8%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 21
OPP 30
+22
35.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Garret Dooley and Conor Sheehy for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 33, Clayton Thorson fumbled, forced by Conor Sheehy, recovered by Wisc D'Cota Dixon, return for 22 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:1376% → 95%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
24.1%
Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+1
23.3%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
22.4%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+19
22.1%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 19 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
21.6%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-1
20.2%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+6
20.8%
Bart Houston run for 6 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
19.8%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.8%
Corey Clement 2 Yd Run (Alec Ingold Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
5.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kyle Queiro) to the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:397% → 6%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
7.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 11 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
7.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-8
6.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by T.J. Edwards for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+22
6.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 22 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
7.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
6.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
6.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+6
6.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1195% → 96%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
5.0%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
4.6%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+4
4.6%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
4.4%
Anthony Lotti punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:425% → 4%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
4.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew ScanlanSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
4.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 4 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
4.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
4.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5796% → 97%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
3.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
3.5%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
2.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+1
3.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 26 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 1 yd to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:082% → 1%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
1.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 7 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
1.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+9
1.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
1.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew ScanlanSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
1.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 4 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -37 yds · 1:4498% → 99%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 20
OWN 46
-13
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 33
OWN 33
-14
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 47
OWN 19
0
1.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:021% → 1%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
1.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
1.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Austin Carr 13 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick)
+15.2
TD · Q4 8:57
Corey Clement 2 Yd Run (Alec Ingold Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-14
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:10
Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Nwest 36
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com