Try the model
PUR

Purdue 31 at Minnesota 44

MINN
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.5MINN 87.5%Emmit Carpenter 52 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 12:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:50 · Emmit Carpenter 52 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+36.9Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:55: David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 60 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +9.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +19.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:16: Rodney Smith run for 7 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +9.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:45: Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +12.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:10: J.D. Dellinger 34 yd FG GOOD — PUR win probability +8.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 11PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:50MINN 4th & 9 at PUR 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:55MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:52PUR 4th & 13 at PUR 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:38MINN 4th & 1 at PUR 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:10MINN 4th & 20 at MINN 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00PUR 4th & 2 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:26MINN 4th & 9 at PUR 35, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:26PUR 4th & 16 at PUR 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:27MINN 4th & 1 at PUR 11, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%−1.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:29PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:16PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 47, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:55MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 28, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:05PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:36MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 21, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.9
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:43PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 49, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 41, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:45PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:33MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 24, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:10PUR 4th & 5 at MINN 17, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−5.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:10MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:40PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−7.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:51MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:55PUR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:10PUR Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:27MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:55PUR Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00PUR Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:16MINN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:45MINN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:30MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1088% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+46
88.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 46 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.0%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Prdue 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
88.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
88.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
87.5%
Emmit Carpenter 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.5%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
87.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
87.5%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 5 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
87.5%
David Blough run for no gain to the Prdue 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:5687% → 88%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
87.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 35Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Da'Wan HunteSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+35
87.6%
Rodney Smith run for 35 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5613% → 14%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
87.4%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
87.3%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
87.3%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 36Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
87.4%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+38
87.3%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 38 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
86.1%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 20 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.4%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
86.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
86.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
86.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bilal Marshall at the Prdue 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
86.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 5 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-3
86.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 20Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
86.5%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 8
OWN 20
-5
86.6%
PURDUE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 15Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
86.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 49 yds, downed at the Minn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.9%
Kobe McCrary run for no gain to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
85.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 11 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.2%
Kobe McCrary run for no gain to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
86.1%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+7
86.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
86.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 32 yds, downed at the Prdue 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 1:1315% → 17%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
85.1%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-3
85.2%
David Blough run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 11 David Blough fumbled, recovered by Prdue Markell JonesSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+89
82.8%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 89 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
82.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-3
82.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-10
82.0%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Gelen Robinson for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 20
OWN 14
+5
81.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 49 yds , Bilal Marshall returns for 5 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
80.8%
Bilal Marshall pass incomplete to Markus BaileySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+8
81.2%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
50
0
81.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 44 yds, downed at the Minn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:3681% → 80%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
80.6%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+28
80.7%
Rodney Smith run for 28 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
81.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 20 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
81.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Prdue 35Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-7
82.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+7
80.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 7 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+53
80.0%
Emmit Carpenter 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.5%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
79.1%
David Blough sacked by Hendrick Ekpe and Jonathan Celestin for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
79.9%
David Blough sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 8 yards to the Prdue 19Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
80.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 44 yds, downed at the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:4579% → 86%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
79.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 9 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+10
80.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
80.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
80.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 9 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+7
80.1%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
80.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 23 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
80.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3217% → 27%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.9%
Markell Jones run for 11 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
82.4%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
82.1%
David Blough run for 1 yd to the Prdue 40Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+60
73.0%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 60 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:2876% → 80%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+51
75.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 51 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
78.7%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 21Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
78.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+10
77.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 10 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
80.2%
Emmit Carpenter 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:5822% → 20%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
78.4%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+4
78.7%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
80.2%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
80.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 53 yds, downed at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+34
79.2%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Antonio Blackmon return for 34 yds to the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.6%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
65.7%
Markell Jones run for 8 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
64.6%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.8%
David Blough pass intercepted Duke McGhee return for no gain to the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:3569% → 79%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
69.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 12 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
70.2%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+9
70.2%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
70.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
70.2%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
79.3%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.5%
PURDUE Penalty, false start (Cameron Posey) to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
76.7%
Markell Jones run for 9 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
75.9%
David Blough pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
77.0%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 10 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
75.0%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 40Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
75.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 8 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
74.3%
Bilal Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
75.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 33 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.7%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
75.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
75.1%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Minn 28 Mitch Leidner fumbled, recovered by Minn Mitch Leidner , return for 1 yd to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
74.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
73.7%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 27Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
74.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+6
75.6%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 6 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
75.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
73.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
73.6%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
72.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Navon MosleySimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
71.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
70.1%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 7 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
69.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
69.7%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 1 yd to the Prdue 49Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
71.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 40 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1673% → 71%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+26
72.7%
Rodney Smith run for 26 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
74.0%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Smith, Rodney, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Beebe, Colton) 15 yards to the MINN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 25
OWN 22
0
72.7%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+12
72.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 12 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+7
71.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 7 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
71.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 27FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
70.7%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 20 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.8%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
68.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+13
70.0%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 13 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
66.5%
David Blough sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 16
OWN 48
-3
69.3%
David Blough sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 44 David Blough fumbled, recovered by Minn Julian Huff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 28TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:1077% → 90%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
76.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 11 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
77.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 24 yds to the Prdue 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.8%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
87.7%
Jack Wegher run for 6 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Jack WegherSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
87.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
88.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Jack WegherSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
89.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
88.0%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+4
87.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
87.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Leroy ClarkSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
86.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 31FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:4712% → 22%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
87.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 12 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
87.1%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
86.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo Yancey, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+8
87.8%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 8 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
86.0%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 10 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
86.0%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Mahoungou, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Buford, Ray) 15 yards to the MINN22, 1ST DOWN PUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-2
85.2%
David Blough sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+7
86.9%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 7 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
78.1%
J.D. Dellinger 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
88.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 3 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
88.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
88.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Da'Wan HunteSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
87.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 33FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5819% → 20%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.8%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 7 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
80.3%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
79.7%
Jack Wegher run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 26 Jack Wegher fumbled, forced by Nick Rallis, recovered by Minn Antoine Winfield Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 34TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:0494% → 99%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
93.8%
Smith, Rodney rush for 1 yard to the PUR25 (Parker, C.J.), PENALTY MINN holding (Weyler, Jared) 10 yards to the PUR36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+8
93.9%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+11
95.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 11 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
95.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.8%
Rodney Smith run for 14 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 35END OF GAME
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Jack WegherSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
98.6%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 10 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
98.4%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 8 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
98.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+8
98.5%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 8 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
98.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Nick Rallis) to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Anthony Mahoungou, broken up by Ray Buford PURDUE Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
98.1%
David Blough sacked by Gaelin Elmore for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+16
98.5%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 16 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q4 11:45
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+12
TD · Q3 11:16
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com