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MSU

Michigan State 27 at Illinois 31

ILL
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:51 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior−12.0Home team on offense−2.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:59: Kendrick Foster run for 64 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +18.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:58: Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler O'Connor pass to R.J. Shelton for Two-Point Conversion) — MSU win probability +24.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:37: Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +24.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:52: Damion Terry pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +39.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:35: Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +47.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57MSU 4th & 8 at ILL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:57ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MSU 4th & 21 at ILL 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:04ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:51MSU 4th & 15 at ILL 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:52ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 19, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:35MSU 4th & 5 at ILL 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:06ILL 4th & 1 at MSU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−1.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:25MSU 4th & 5 at ILL 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−8.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:56ILL 4th & 8 at MSU 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−9.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:56MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−5.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:33ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 42, up 8
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:37MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.6%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:45MSU 4th & 8 at ILL 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−4.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−14.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:45ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:52MSU 4th & 4 at ILL 13, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%−3.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−16.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:19MSU 4th & 2 at ILL 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−8.8
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−14.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 0:14ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:59ILL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:58MSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:37ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:52MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−2.9
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:35ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
32.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
32.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
32.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:0367% → 66%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
32.9%
LJ Scott run for 15 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
32.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
32.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
32.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 10 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
32.9%
Shelton, R.J. rush for 3 yards to the ILL27 (Harding,Dele), PENALTY MSU illegal shift 5 yards to the ILL35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+7
32.9%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
32.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
32.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
33.9%
Michael Geiger 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
34.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
33.9%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
33.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
16 plays · 38 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
34.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 7 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
34.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
34.3%
Tyler O'Connor run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
34.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 17 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
34.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
34.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 8 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
33.9%
Trishton Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
34.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+5
34.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense (Carroll Phillips) to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+13
34.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 13 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
33.9%
Scott, LJ rush for 5 yards to the ILL10 (Nickerson,Hardy;Green,Stanley), PENALTY MSU holding (Machado, Miguel) 10 yards to the ILL25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 20
OPP 25
-6
34.0%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 26
OPP 31
+1
34.2%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 25
OPP 30
-10
34.5%
O'Connor, Tyler rush for 10 yards to the ILL20 (Nickerson,Hardy), PENALTY MSU holding (Lukusa, Thiyo) 10 yards to the ILL40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 35
OPP 40
+4
34.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to LJ Scott for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 31
OPP 36
0
34.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
36.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
35.5%
Jeff George Jr. run for 9 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
35.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 1:2264% → 63%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
36.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
36.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+13
36.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to LJ Scott for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
35.1%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
35.2%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+12
35.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 12 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
34.8%
Madre London run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-1
34.8%
R.J. Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-10
35.5%
O'Connor, Tyler pass complete to London, Madre for 8 yards to the ILL27, out-of-bounds (Watson,Tre), PENALTY MSU holding (Machado, Miguel) 10 yards to the ILL45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 45
0
36.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 21
OPP 45
0
36.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, downed at the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
37.8%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-5
37.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Sam Mays) to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 15
OWN 5
0
37.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 15
OWN 5
0
36.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 15
OWN 5
+20
36.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 36 , Brandon Sowards returns for 20 yds to the Illin 25 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
35.7%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+2
35.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-5
36.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 15
OPP 41
0
37.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
38.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
37.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Desmond Cain for 8 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+1
37.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
36.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
36.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:5764% → 69%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
35.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 9 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
35.3%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
35.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Matt Sokol for 16 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
34.6%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+8
34.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
34.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 13
OPP 24
0
34.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+8
36.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 8 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
31.4%
Michael Geiger 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 2:2134% → 53%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
34.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 14 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
35.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 11 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
36.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
36.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Desmond Cain for 9 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
36.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+5
33.7%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach Grant, broken up by Darian HicksSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
37.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 15 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
37.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Mays, broken up by Matt MorrisseySimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
38.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
52.9%
Kendrick Foster run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12KICKOFF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:3552% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
47.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+47
48.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 47 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
43.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 10 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
43.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
43.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 5 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+2
44.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 2 yds Josiah Price fumbled, forced by Stanley Green,Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
38.9%
Michael Geiger 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:2641% → 59%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
41.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
41.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+9
40.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 9 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
58.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 64 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.0%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 26 LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Stanley Green, recovered by Illin Jaylen Dunlap , return for 12 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5362% → 67%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
61.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Justin Hardee, broken up by Tyson SmithSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
61.8%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
60.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
67.4%
Chase McLaughlin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.8%
Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
66.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 7 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
65.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (David Beedle) to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
67.0%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Chunky Clements for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
68.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
70.3%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
69.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+10
68.7%
Kendrick Foster run for 10 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
69.3%
Ryan Frain punt for 42 yds, downed at the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 4:0830% → 60%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
70.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie Corley, broken up by Cameron WatkinsSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
70.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 12 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
69.8%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
70.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+26
71.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 26 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
66.6%
Felton Davis III run for 14 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
64.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 16 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
64.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+9
64.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 9 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler O'Connor pass to R.J. Shelton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:2151% → 83%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ainslie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
50.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 13 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
54.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Justin Hardee for 23 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
57.7%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
57.7%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+19
55.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 19 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
57.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.7%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 5:5226% → 37%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
74.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
74.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
75.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 5 yds Josiah Price fumbled, forced by Chunky Clements, recovered by MchSt Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
75.4%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
73.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
73.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 10 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.2%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
71.5%
Damion Terry pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 11 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
69.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 10 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
68.6%
Donnie Corley run for 4 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+7
68.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
68.6%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
68.6%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Felton Davis III, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-5
71.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Felton Davis III) to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+7
73.7%
Damion Terry run for 7 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
62.7%
Michael Geiger 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0075% → 72%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
75.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
74.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach Grant, broken up by Demetrious CoxSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+12
72.3%
Ryan Frain punt for 35 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 12 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:1536% → 78%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
64.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 20 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
60.7%
R.J. Shelton run for 13 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
59.9%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+8
60.9%
Damion Terry run for 8 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
62.1%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+13
22.2%
Damion Terry pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1735% → 92%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
35.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 22 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
40.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+14
41.6%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Mays,Sam, PENALTY MSU pass interference (Smith, Tyson) 14 yards to the MSU35, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
44.2%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Hardee,Justin (Smith, Tyson), PENALTY MSU pass interference (Smith, Tyson) 15 yards to the MSU20, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
44.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 4 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
91.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 1:1627% → 27%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
73.5%
Damion Terry pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 7 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+20
70.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 20 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
66.3%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
67.2%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
70.6%
Damion Terry pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.9%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
66.6%
Damion Terry pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+4
67.5%
Damion Terry pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 4 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 2
OPP 15
-1
73.3%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:35
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+47.3
TD · Q4 2:52
Damion Terry pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-39.9
TD · Q4 12:37
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+24.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com