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PSU

Penn State 62 at Purdue 24

PUR
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:57 · Blake Gillikin punt for 46 yds , Bilal Marshall returns for no gain to the Prdue 24 Bilal Marshall fumbled, recovered by PnSt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense−9.0Pregame prior−12.3Score differential−3.0Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:33: Chris Godwin 38 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:29: Chris Godwin 1 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:17: Andre Robinson 4 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:32: DeAngelo Yancey 62 Yd pass from David Blough (J.D. Dellinger Kick) — PUR win probability +7.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:18: Miles Sanders 21 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick) — PSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 4:56PSU 4th & 20 at PSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:15PUR 4th & 3 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:57PUR 4th & 14 at PSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:36PSU 4th & 5 at PUR 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−5.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:43PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:57PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:17PUR 4th & 10 at PSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:49PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:57PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:03PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:21PSU 4th & 8 at PUR 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09PUR 4th & 30 at PUR 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:25PSU 4th & 1 at PUR 19, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:31PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 15, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:33PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:26PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:32PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:33PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:29PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:17PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:32PUR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:18PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:56PSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:09PSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:25PSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:1277% → 77%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
22.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
22.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 12 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
22.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
23.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+23
23.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 23 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
23.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 40Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+37
23.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 37 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.9%
Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 4:4923% → 28%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
23.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 10 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.4%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
23.4%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
23.7%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 6 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
23.9%
Bilal Marshall run for 3 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
24.2%
David Blough pass complete to Malik Kimbrough for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+23
24.3%
Markell Jones run for 23 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
24.8%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 8 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+9
24.9%
Richie Worship run for 9 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
25.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Curtis Cothran) to the PnSt 4Similar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
25.1%
Worship, Richie rush for 2 yards to the PENNST2, PENALTY PENNST offside 2 yards to the PENNST2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.2%
Jones, Markell rush for loss of 1 yard to the PENNST3, PENALTY PENNST face mask 1 yards to the PENNST1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q1 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.6%
Markell Jones 1 Yd Run (J.D. Dellinger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2474% → 72%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.4%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
26.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Evan Panfil for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 20
OWN 25
0
27.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+22
28.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds , Bilal Marshall returns for 22 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:2028% → 37%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
28.1%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 45Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
28.0%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 15 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
29.2%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
29.4%
Bilal Marshall pass complete to Richie Worship for 7 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
29.5%
Bilal Marshall run for no gain to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+7
29.4%
Bilal Marshall pass complete to Markell Jones for 7 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
30.9%
Malik Kimbrough run for 1 yd to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-1
31.2%
Malik Kimbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+19
31.0%
David Blough pass complete to David Yancey for 19 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
32.0%
Richie Worship run for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
32.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 6 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.5%
Cameron Posey 1 Yd pass from David Blough (J.D. Dellinger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:4965% → 71%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
35.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
35.5%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
35.8%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Lorenzo Neal) to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
35.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 21 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
34.7%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Charles, Irvin, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Hayes, Josh) 10 yards to the PURDUE37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
34.8%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 38Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+38
29.2%
Chris Godwin 38 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 5:2332% → 37%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.9%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 11 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
32.8%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 37Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
32.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 6 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+10
33.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 10 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
35.0%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 10 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
35.6%
Bilal Marshall run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
35.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
35.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+15
33.8%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Yancey, DeAngelo, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Allen, Marcus) 15 yards to the PENNST21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
36.6%
Jones, Markell rush for no gain to the PENNST21, PENALTY PURDUE holding (Hopkins, Brycen) 10 yards to the PENNST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+5
36.3%
Richie Worship run for 5 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 15
OPP 26
-1
36.3%
David Blough pass complete to Malik Kimbrough for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+2
35.4%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 2 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+42
36.5%
J.D. Dellinger 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:0963% → 66%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
37.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+14
38.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 14 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
37.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
37.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+11
38.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
36.9%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+15
37.5%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Blacknall, Saeed, PENALTY PURDUE pass interference (Hayes, Josh) 15 yards to the PURDUE37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
36.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 17 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
36.0%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
36.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
38.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
34.2%
Tyler Davis 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4239% → 38%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for no gain to the Prdue 25Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.8%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
38.7%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 4 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
38.3%
Joe Schopper punt for 36 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:2964% → 61%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
35.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
33.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-6
34.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-5
37.9%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
38.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 26 yds, downed at the Prdue 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:3642% → 39%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+31
41.8%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 31 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
44.6%
PURDUE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+5
43.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
43.2%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
43.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
41.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
39.3%
J.D. Dellinger 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
35.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0340% → 42%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
39.8%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
42.1%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 3 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+22
41.7%
David Blough pass intercepted Brandon Smith return for 22 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:1168% → 78%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
32.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+9
32.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
32.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.2%
Chris Godwin 1 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3126% → 25%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.8%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
26.4%
Richie Worship run for 1 yd to the Prdue 31Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
25.6%
David Blough run for no gain to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
28.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
27.1%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 6
50
-11
28.2%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the Prdue 39Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+5
25.5%
David Blough pass complete to Malik Kimbrough for 5 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
24.9%
Joe Schopper punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:4675% → 73%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
25.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 10 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
24.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
25.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
26.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 46 yds , Bilal Marshall returns for no gain to the Prdue 24 Bilal Marshall fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:1878% → 88%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
22.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 20 yds to the Prdue 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.9%
Andre Robinson 4 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0214% → 14%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
14.4%
Bilal Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
14.0%
David Blough pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 5 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
13.7%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 4 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
13.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 45 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18FG
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:2988% → 90%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
11.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 42 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
10.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 17 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
10.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 2 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
10.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
10.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
9.9%
Tyler Davis 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4211% → 20%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.2%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
11.5%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for no gain to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
11.0%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Marshall, Bilal, PENALTY PENNST holding (Campbell, Christian) 9 yards to the PURDUE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
11.7%
Bilal Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 38Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+62
19.5%
DeAngelo Yancey 62 Yd pass from David Blough (J.D. Dellinger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:5783% → 93%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
17.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 22 yds to the Prdue 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
16.5%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+21
6.8%
Miles Sanders 21 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · -9 yds · 2:0410% → 8%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.3%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
10.1%
Markell Jones run for 11 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
9.9%
PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 25
OWN 21
0
9.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 25
OWN 21
+1
9.2%
David Blough pass complete to Anthony Mahoungou for 1 yd to the Prdue 22Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 24
OWN 22
-6
8.8%
David Blough sacked by Ryan Buchholz for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 16Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 30
OWN 16
+65
7.7%
Joe Schopper punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PURDUE 29 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
1 play · 81 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
2.1%
Saquon Barkley 81 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23FUMBLE
14 plays · 29 yds · 4:282% → 2%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
2.3%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 7 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
2.5%
Richie Worship run for 6 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
2.4%
Richie Worship run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
2.4%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 5 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
2.4%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 5 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
2.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
2.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 8 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-5
2.5%
Blough, David pass complete to Phillips, Gregory for 13 yards to the PENNST25, PENALTY PURDUE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+10
2.2%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 10 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
2.4%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
2.3%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 5 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-14
2.2%
David Blough run for a loss of 14 yards to the PnSt 42 David Blough fumbled, recovered by PnSt Kevin GivensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0099% → 100%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
1.3%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
1.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 18 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
1.2%
Miles Sanders run for 9 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
1.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
1.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Irvin Charles for 26 yds to the Prdue 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.9%
Tommy Stevens run for 1 yd to the Prdue 1Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Mark Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-10
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar run for a loss of 10 yards to the Prdue 4 Elijah Sindelar fumbled, recovered by Prdue Elijah SindelarSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 20
OWN 4
+8
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar run for 8 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+33
0.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Christian Campbell return for 18 yds to the Prdue 13 PENN ST Penalty, Clipping (15 Yards) to the Prdue 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
0.2%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
0.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+5
0.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 5 yds to the Prdue 19Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
0.2%
Andre Robinson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
0.1%
Tario Fuller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 15Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
0.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
0.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
0.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 39
-4
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:29
Chris Godwin 1 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)
-10.6
TD · Q3 8:17
Andre Robinson 4 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)
-10.2
TD · Q3 1:18
Miles Sanders 21 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com