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MICH

Michigan 32 at Michigan State 23

MSU
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.6MSU 2.3%Kenny Allen 45 Yd Field GoalAWAY 30 - HOME 10 · Q4 14:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:42 · Kenny Allen 45 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior−15.3Home team on offense−40.9Score differential−21.2Garbage-time factor−8.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:19: De'Veon Smith 1 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +2.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:39: De'Veon Smith 5 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +3.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:31: Monty Madaris 20 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:01: Donnie Corley 5 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:01: Jabrill Peppers Defensive PAT Conversion — MICH win probability +14.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 14:09MSU 4th & 1 at MICH 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:24MSU 4th & 16 at MICH 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:41MICH 4th & 5 at MSU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:20MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:01MICH 4th & 1 at MSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:47MSU 4th & 2 at MICH 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:42MICH 4th & 26 at MSU 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:43MSU 4th & 17 at MICH 17, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:01MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:44MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 46, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:55MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 45, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:46MSU 4th & 5 at MICH 13, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:37MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 30, up 13
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:58MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:30MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:19MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:39MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:31MSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:01MSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.3 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.0%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:578% → 12%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.5%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
8.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to LJ Scott for 12 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
8.3%
LJ Scott run for 8 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
8.6%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
8.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+14
9.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 14 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
9.4%
LJ Scott run for 10 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
9.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+15
10.1%
LJ Scott run for 15 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
10.3%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Mich 5Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.6%
LJ Scott 5 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1689% → 89%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
11.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
11.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 20 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
11.6%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+15
11.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 15 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
12.0%
Eddie McDoom run for 20 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
12.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+7
12.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.1%
Jabrill Peppers 3 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:1612% → 15%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Higby) to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
11.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+23
11.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 8 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Delano Hill) to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
12.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-5
13.0%
R.J. Shelton run for 5 yds to the MchSt 49 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Delton Williams) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+3
12.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 3 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+11
13.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
14.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
15.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
15.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
15.2%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:4186% → 89%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
14.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+33
14.3%
Eddie McDoom run for 33 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
13.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 26 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
14.1%
Khalid Hill run for no gain to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malik McDowell) to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.4%
De'Veon Smith 1 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:3912% → 15%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
12.4%
LJ Scott run for 24 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
13.4%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+18
13.9%
LJ Scott run for 18 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
14.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-6
14.6%
R.J. Shelton run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 16
OPP 34
0
13.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 16
OPP 34
+52
14.8%
Michael Geiger 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3485% → 87%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
15.3%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
15.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 16 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
15.0%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
50
+43
14.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 43 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
14.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
14.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to De'Veon SmithSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
15.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
12.9%
Kenny Allen 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:0914% → 13%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
13.6%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-2
13.8%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Mike McCray for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 12 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 15
OWN 12
0
13.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 15
OWN 12
-5
13.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 20
OWN 7
+8
13.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 49 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
15 plays · 48 yds · 4:3687% → 92%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
12.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
12.7%
Jabrill Peppers run for 15 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
12.7%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-2
12.8%
Jehu Chesson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+10
12.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 10 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
11.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
11.9%
Jabrill Peppers run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
11.9%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
12.7%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
11.9%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Harris, Drake, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Layne, Justin) 6 yards to the MICHIGANST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.2%
De'Veon Smith 5 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
9.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Jourdan Lewis return for no gain to the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:2292% → 94%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
8.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 14 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
8.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Drake HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+20
8.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 20 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
7.7%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Darboh, Amara, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Smith, Tyson) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
6.3%
Kenny Allen 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:2992% → 93%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.8%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
7.7%
Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
8.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 15 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
7.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
7.2%
Khalid Hill run for 4 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
7.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 8 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
7.1%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+42
6.8%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted Darian Hicks return for 42 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:329% → 9%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
9.4%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+23
9.4%
Donnie Corley run for 23 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
9.3%
Tyler O'Connor run for no gain to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
9.3%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 9Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
9.0%
O'Connor, Tyler pass incomplete to Shelton, R.J., PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Peppers, Jabrill) 7 yards to the MICHIGAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
9.7%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 3Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
9.4%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Mich 2Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
9.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Mich 2Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
9.0%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 4 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tyler Higby) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 6:5893% → 98%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
7.1%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+39
7.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 39 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
6.4%
Jabrill Peppers run for 8 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
6.1%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
6.1%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
6.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+13
6.0%
Karan Higdon run for 13 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
5.7%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
4.8%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
4.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+15
5.6%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Darboh, Amara, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Hicks, Darian) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
4.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-5
4.6%
Jabrill Peppers run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 12
-15
4.8%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Chesson, Jehu, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Darboh, Amara) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 26
OPP 27
0
4.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 26
OPP 27
+45
2.3%
Kenny Allen 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:493% → 2%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.8%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
2.4%
Damion Terry run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.4%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+40
2.3%
LJ Scott run for 40 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
2.8%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
2.5%
Damion Terry run for 5 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+9
2.5%
Damion Terry run for 9 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
2.5%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 17 Damion Terry fumbled, recovered by MchSt LJ ScottSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
2.4%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
2.2%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
2.1%
Michael Geiger 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2298% → 98%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
1.7%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-2
1.7%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 17Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
1.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+6
1.6%
Kenny Allen punt for 48 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:242% → 12%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+10
1.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Josiah Price for 10 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+34
1.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 34 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
11.9%
Monty Madaris 20 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:2395% → 96%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
5.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 2 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+5
5.1%
Wilton Speight run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+23
5.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 23 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
4.6%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
4.4%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-1
3.7%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
4.0%
Kenny Allen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 64 yds · 1:564% → 5%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+24
4.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 24 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
4.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
4.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Donnie Corley for 8 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
4.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
4.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+23
5.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 23 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
6.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
6.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 5 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
5.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 5
OPP 13
-8
4.6%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Jabrill Peppers for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q4 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
2.4%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
2.3%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+44
2.1%
Kenny Allen punt for 44 yds , Donnie Corley returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:262% → 8%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
1.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to LJ Scott for 35 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
2.1%
O'Connor, Tyler pass incomplete to Shelton, R.J., PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul (Wormley, Chris) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
2.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 10 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
2.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
2.7%
O'Connor, Tyler pass incomplete to Shelton, R.J., PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Lewis, Jourdan) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.4%
Donnie Corley 5 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
7.7%
Jabrill Peppers Defensive PAT ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:01
Donnie Corley 5 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+14.7
TD · Q4 0:01
Jabrill Peppers Defensive PAT Conversion
-14.4
TD · Q4 7:31
Monty Madaris 20 Yd pass from Brian Lewerke (Michael Geiger Kick)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com