Try the model
MD

Maryland 36 at Indiana 42

IU
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1IU 67.1%Griffin Oakes 20 Yd Field GoalAWAY 7 - HOME 16 · Q2 11:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:51 · Griffin Oakes 20 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense+5.0Pregame prior+6.5Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:30: D.J. Moore 23 Yd pass from Perry Hills (Adam Greene Kick) — MD win probability +15.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:38: Richard Lagow 5 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +17.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Mitchell Paige 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — IU win probability +19.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:51: Perry Hills 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MD win probability +14.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds for a TD — MD win probability +16.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MD made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:39MD 4th & 14 at IU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:51IU 4th & 3 at MD 3, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−4.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:05IU 4th & 1 at MD 6, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−2.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−8.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:45MD 4th & 8 at MD 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:03IU 4th & 5 at IU 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:36IU 4th & 5 at IU 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:21MD 4th & 11 at midfield, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:33MD 4th & 3 at IU 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−2.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:11MD 4th & 8 at IU 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−11.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:37MD 4th & 17 at MD 37, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−4.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:00MD 4th & 1 at MD 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:20MD 4th & 4 at IU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−1.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:18IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:44IU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:01MD Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:22MD Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:30MD Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:38IU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:00IU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:30IU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:51MD Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.4%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.4%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:49IU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 5:0341% → 40%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison for 12 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.4%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
59.3%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+14
59.3%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 14 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
59.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 5 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+1
59.1%
D.J. Moore run for 1 yd to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+6
59.1%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
59.0%
Teldrick Morgan run for no gain to the Ind 32Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
58.8%
D.J. Moore run for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-6
58.9%
Perry Hills sacked by Patrick Dougherty for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
59.6%
Wade Lees punt for 21 yds, downed at the Ind 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 3:0760% → 63%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
59.5%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-1
59.3%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+10
58.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 10 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
59.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 12 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
59.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 2 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
59.9%
Devine Redding run for 10 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
60.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 15 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
60.7%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+10
60.2%
Tyler Natee run for 10 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+10
60.8%
Tyler Natee run for 10 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
60.9%
Zander Diamont run for 8 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
63.3%
Zander Diamont 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:3038% → 38%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
62.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 21 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
61.7%
Perry Hills pass intercepted Marcelino Ball return for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:4663% → 72%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+25
62.6%
Devine Redding run for 25 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
62.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 17 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
64.0%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 49Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
63.7%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+16
63.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 16 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
64.5%
Tyler Natee run for 21 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
64.8%
Mike Majette run for 1 yd to the Mary 13Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+1
65.0%
Tyler Natee run for 1 yd to the Mary 12Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+11
64.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mike Majette for 11 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.8%
Devine Redding 1 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2531% → 36%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
69.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 7 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
63.6%
Ty Johnson 66 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 82 yds · 3:5164% → 67%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
64.3%
Zander Diamont run for 11 yds to the Ind 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
64.6%
Zander Diamont run for 1 yd to the Ind 27Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+15
64.5%
Devine Redding run for 15 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.6%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
65.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Donavan Hale for 16 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
65.9%
Tyler Natee run for 22 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
66.3%
Tyler Natee run for 5 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
66.9%
Zander Diamont run for 4 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
66.5%
Zander Diamont run for 2 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
67.3%
Tyler Natee run for 2 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
67.4%
Tyler Natee run for 4 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.0%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
67.1%
Griffin Oakes 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:2333% → 41%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.1%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
67.5%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
67.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 12 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
66.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 17 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.8%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
65.8%
Ty Johnson run for 11 yds to the Ind 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
66.1%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 20 yds to the Ind 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
66.3%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 2Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 1 yd to the Ind 1Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Perry Hills 1 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:5563% → 65%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.0%
Devine Redding run for 8 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
64.2%
Devine Redding run for 14 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
64.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 13 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.3%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+25
65.3%
Mike Majette run for 10 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
66.2%
Zander Diamont run for 5 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
66.3%
Tyler Natee run for 4 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
65.4%
Zander Diamont run for no gain to the Mary 6Similar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
65.1%
Tyler Natee run for no gain to the Mary 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1236% → 35%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
63.8%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 14 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.9%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.1%
Perry Hills run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
64.0%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-4
64.9%
Wade Lees punt for 44 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3164% → 63%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
64.4%
Devonte Williams run for 5 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
65.4%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
64.1%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
63.4%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:3337% → 56%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
62.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+14
63.0%
Ty Johnson run for 14 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
60.6%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
60.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+13
59.9%
Perry Hills run for 13 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
58.7%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Ind 37Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-1
58.8%
Perry Hills sacked by Derrian Meminger for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 38Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+15
59.5%
INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
43.6%
D.J. Moore 23 Yd pass from Perry Hills (Adam Greene Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1548% → 48%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
47.9%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 13Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+7
47.5%
Mike Majette run for 7 yds to the Ind 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1149% → 46%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
48.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 13 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
48.1%
Devine Redding run for 6 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
49.8%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
48.5%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+7
46.3%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 51 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 7 yds to the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:0855% → 55%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
45.4%
Ty Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+6
44.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 6 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
44.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
43.9%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 9 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
42.4%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
42.2%
Ty Johnson run for 10 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.2%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
41.2%
Lorenzo Harrison run for no gain to the Ind 49Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-10
42.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+9
43.9%
Wes Brown run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 11
50
+7
44.7%
Wade Lees punt for 44 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 7 yds to the Ind 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 2:3345% → 68%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
44.5%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
44.5%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+33
42.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 33 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
48.1%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
48.6%
Tyler Natee run for 4 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
48.1%
Zander Diamont run for 4 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
48.4%
Tyler Natee run for no gain to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+29
48.2%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Ricky Jones for 29 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
49.9%
Tyler Natee run for 4 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.8%
Richard Lagow 5 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:1338% → 49%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.8%
Ty Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
61.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
60.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+17
58.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 17 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
57.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 7 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
55.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for no gain to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
57.1%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+18
60.1%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 18 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
55.3%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ind 13Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
55.2%
Perry Hills run for 4 yds to the Ind 9Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-5
58.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 14Similar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
50.7%
Adam Greene 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0053% → 77%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
52.9%
Mike Majette run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 22Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+13
52.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 13 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
53.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 8 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+15
57.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
58.3%
Mike Majette run for 27 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
77.2%
Mitchell Paige 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0326% → 24%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
74.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 19 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
72.8%
Ty Johnson run for 10 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
70.9%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
69.9%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 4
50
-13
70.4%
Perry Hills sacked by Marcus Oliver for a loss of 13 yards to the Mary 37 Perry Hills fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 17
OWN 37
+5
76.2%
Wade Lees punt for 46 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 5 yds to the Ind 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 2:5576% → 79%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
75.7%
Devine Redding run for 7 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+17
77.0%
Devine Redding run for 17 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
78.4%
Devine Redding run for 15 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
80.5%
Richard Lagow sacked by Cavon Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+5
79.3%
Devonte Williams run for 5 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
78.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 15 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
82.2%
Tyler Natee run for 10 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-9
82.3%
Zander Diamont run for 6 yds to the Mary 9 INDIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 19
OPP 24
0
81.7%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 19
OPP 24
+3
81.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 3 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+38
79.2%
Griffin Oakes 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:3125% → 24%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
75.5%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
75.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 5 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-17
76.0%
Perry Hills sacked by Marcus Oliver for a loss of 17 yards to the Mary 9 Perry Hills fumbled, recovered by IndSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0384% → 93%
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
84.0%
Tyler Natee run for 7 yds to the Mary 2Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.9%
Tyler Natee 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:399% → 21%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
91.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-1
91.9%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 29Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+6
92.3%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison for 9 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+19
91.8%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
91.3%
Perry Hills pass complete to Ty Johnson for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
90.3%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-1
91.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+13
94.3%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 13 yds to the Ind 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
93.0%
Lorenzo Harrison run for no gain to the Ind 18Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
93.3%
Perry Hills pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison for 4 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+9
94.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 9 yds to the Ind 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.6%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.8%
Perry Hills 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3889% → 98%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.0%
Tyler Natee run for 3 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
90.2%
Tyler Natee run for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
90.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 10 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
93.4%
Devonte Williams run for 3 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
94.0%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+52
98.2%
Zander Diamont 52 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:382% → 20%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 14 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
98.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison for 14 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
97.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 37 yds to the Ind 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
97.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Roughing Passer (5 Yards) to the Ind 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+20
TD · Q3 0:00
Mitchell Paige 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+19
TD · Q3 6:38
Richard Lagow 5 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com