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MINN

Minnesota 40 at Illinois 17

ILL
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:49 · Ryan Frain punt for 54 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 20 yds to the Minn 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior−27.7Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:11: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +4.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:16: Rodney Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +3.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:11: Rodney Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +8.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:24: Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +14.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:56: Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +12.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:49ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:28MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ILL 4th & 7 at MINN 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:47MINN 4th & 15 at ILL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:15ILL 4th & 7 at MINN 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.5
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:29MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:11ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:01MINN 4th & 5 at ILL 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:22ILL 4th & 2 at MINN 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:56ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:46MINN 4th & 3 at ILL 37, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−1.9
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:13MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 40, up 16
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:43MINN 4th & 5 at ILL 7, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:08ILL 4th & 10 at MINN 35, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:50MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 49, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:38ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 10, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:10ILL 4th & 4 at MINN 14, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:49MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:11ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:16MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:11MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:24ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:56MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:41MINN Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
21.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
21.6%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
21.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
21.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
21.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
21.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
22.6%
Jeff George Jr. run for no gain to the Illin 9 Jeff George Jr. fumbled, recovered by Minn Scott EkpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
22.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
22.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-2
22.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+5
22.1%
George, Jr., J. pass complete to Turner,Malik for 7 yards to the ILL20 (Buford, Ray), PENALTY MINN offside defense (Coughlin, C) 5 yards to the ILL18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+2
22.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 2 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+20
22.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 54 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 20 yds to the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-11
22.3%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 21
OWN 35
0
22.7%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 21
OWN 35
+9
22.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 9 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
22.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:0823% → 28%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
23.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 11 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
23.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+19
23.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 19 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
23.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
23.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+23
23.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Tyler White for 23 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.4%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
26.2%
Drew Wolitarsky run for 7 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
26.2%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+12
26.5%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
26.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
26.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 40 yds , Darius Mosely returns for no gain to the Illin 20 Darius Mosely fumbled, recovered by Minn Antoine Winfield Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
23.0%
Rodney Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:1624% → 25%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
24.0%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+8
24.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 8 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+23
23.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 8 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, targeting (Duke McGhee) to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
24.8%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
24.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 9 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
25.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
25.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
25.8%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
25.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic ThiemanSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+35
24.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 29 yds, downed at the Minn 13 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (6 Yards) to the Minn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 48 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
25.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+2
25.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+12
25.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 12 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
24.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
24.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+11
24.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 11 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
23.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 20 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
23.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-10
23.5%
Smith, Rodney rush for 9 yards to the ILL28, out-of-bounds (Green,Stanley), PENALTY MINN holding declined, PENALTY MINN holding (Weyler, Jared) 10 yards to the ILL47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+2
23.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
24.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
25.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 10 yds, downed at the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
25.4%
George, Jr., J. pass incomplete to Hardee,Justin, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Hardin, KiAnte) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
50
+4
27.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
27.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 7 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
27.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Dominic ThiemanSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
27.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+2
26.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 2 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
25.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
25.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
25.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+8
24.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
24.3%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-1
25.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+12
25.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 12 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
24.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 54 yds , Darius Mosely returns for no gain to the Illin 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
25.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+2
25.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
26.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
25.3%
Jeff George Jr. run for no gain to the Illin 25 Jeff George Jr. fumbled,Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 30 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for no gain to the Illin 49 Antonio Shenault fumbled, recovered by Minn Coney DurrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5778% → 86%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
22.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
22.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+35
22.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 35 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
21.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
13.8%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dominic Thieman for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
16.5%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
15.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+12
15.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Antonio Shenault at the ILLINOIS 43 ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
13.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
13.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+3
13.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
14.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate Wozniak, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:5816% → 32%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
15.5%
Jeff George Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 32 Jeff George Jr. fumbled, recovered by Illin Zach GrantSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+28
14.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 28 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
16.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 9 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
17.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, offside defense (Merrick Jackson) to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
17.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
17.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+7
16.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Justin Hardee for 7 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+3
16.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
17.6%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
31.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:2877% → 91%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
23.3%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-1
22.0%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+13
22.9%
Rodney Smith run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
50
+9
21.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-4
21.3%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
21.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 5 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
21.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 7 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
20.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+19
21.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Stanley Green) to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
20.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
20.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
8.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
11.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
11.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
11.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+17
11.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 40 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for 17 yds to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
7.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
7.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
7.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
8.5%
Ryan Santoso punt for 33 yds, downed at the Illin 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22SF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-4
8.8%
Merrick Jackson SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
6.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
6.5%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+6
6.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 12:13
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
6.9%
Ryan Santoso punt for 24 yds, downed at the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24FUMBLE
1 play · -24 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-16
7.0%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Hendrick Ekpe for a loss of 16 yards to the Illin 12 Jeff George Jr. fumbled, recovered by Minn Scott Ekpe , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5195% → 98%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
4.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
4.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+1
5.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 1 yd to the Illin 7Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
2.3%
Emmit Carpenter 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:354% → 4%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
3.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 9 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+10
4.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 10 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
4.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
4.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
4.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 7 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
4.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
4.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
4.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
4.2%
Chase McLaughlin 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:1897% → 97%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
50
0
3.5%
Conor Rhoda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 49 Conor Rhoda fumbled, recovered by Minn Conor Rhoda , return for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-2
3.3%
Conor Rhoda run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+2
3.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 11
OWN 49
+40
3.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 40 yds , Darius Mosely returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Kendrick FosterSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
1.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 29TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3398% → 99%
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
2.4%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.6%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 30DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
0.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 9 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+14
0.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 14 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
0.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 1
50
+30
0.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Sam Mays for 30 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
0.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 5 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+1
0.4%
Jeff George Jr. run for 1 yd to the Minn 14Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 4
OPP 14
0
0.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:24
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+14
TD · Q4 14:56
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q3 12:11
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com