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IU

Indiana 14 at Northwestern 24

NU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDSAFETYEnd of GameFG-3.8NU 85.9%Griffin Oakes 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 24 · Q3 11:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:19 · Griffin Oakes 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense+15.4Score differential+5.3Garbage-time factor+3.4Pregame prior+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Time remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:39: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 34 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +2.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:51: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 32 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +9.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Jack Mitchell 19 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +7.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 11:19: Griffin Oakes 30 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +3.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:49: Nick Westbrook run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) INDIANA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined — IU win probability +8.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11IU made the numbers' call on 8 of 14
  1. Q1 11:30IU 4th & 7 at IU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32IU 4th & 9 at IU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:50NU 4th & 10 at NU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:40IU 4th & 3 at NU 3, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:36NU 4th & 1 at IU 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−2.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:36NU 4th & 10 at IU 34, up 18
    Close callPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:59IU 4th & 2 at NU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−6.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:53NU 4th & 7 at NU 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:54IU 4th & 1 at IU 29, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:39NU 4th & 3 at IU 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−0.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:44IU 4th & 2 at IU 24, down 18
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00IU 4th & 5 at NU 20, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:19IU 4th & 10 at NU 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:13NU 4th & 8 at NU 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:25IU 4th & 2 at NU 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−3.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:15NU 4th & 17 at NU 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:02IU 4th & 5 at NU 26, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−5.7
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:42NU 4th & 12 at IU 46, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−1.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:45IU 4th & 18 at NU 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:45NU 4th & 13 at NU 33, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:22IU 4th & 13 at IU 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:58NU 4th & 9 at NU 39, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:59NU 4th & 15 at NU 26, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:52IU 4th & 6 at IU 46, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−0.3
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:10IU 4th & 3 at NU 6, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 11:37NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:39NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51NU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:49IU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:2359% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
59.0%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+12
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
59.0%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
59.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+5
59.0%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 4 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+9
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
60.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
60.2%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
60.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick Westbrook, broken up by Alonzo MayoSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
60.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for no gain to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+4
60.4%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 43 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1461% → 64%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Jonathan CrawfordSimilar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
60.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 10 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
61.3%
Justin Jackson run for 27 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
64.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 34 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
63.4%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
63.5%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
63.6%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+7
63.7%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 57 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 7 yds to the Nwest 37 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4065% → 66%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
65.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 8Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+2
66.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
66.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
65.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:1734% → 34%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
65.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 16 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
65.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 11 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
65.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 11 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
65.1%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
65.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 10 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.1%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Nwest 3Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.1%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.6%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
66.1%
Griffin Oakes 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:4266% → 76%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
65.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
65.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 3 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
65.6%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
66.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+16
65.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 16 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
66.4%
John Moten IV run for 8 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
66.4%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
66.5%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Ind 32Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
75.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 32 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete INDIANA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.0%
Richard Lagow pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for no gain to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
75.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
76.1%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 5
50
+5
76.1%
INDIANA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
76.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Ind 44Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+8
76.0%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
75.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
75.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.2%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
76.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon Vault, broken up by Jonathan CrawfordSimilar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
75.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Rashard FantSimilar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
75.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 29 yds, downed at the Ind 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:1822% → 23%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
78.5%
Devine Redding run for 11 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
77.9%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 16Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
78.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+4
77.4%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
77.6%
Lagow, Richard pass incomplete to Jones, Ricky (McShepard, M.), PENALTY NU pass interference (McShepard, M.) 15 yards to the IND44, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.1%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
77.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Donavan Hale for 10 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
76.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 7 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+5
75.9%
Williams, D. rush for no gain to the NU39 (Robbins, C.J.), PENALTY NU offside defense (Robbins, C.J.) 5 yards to the NU34, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
75.4%
Tyler Natee run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
75.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Tyler Natee for 4 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+1
76.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
76.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for no gain to the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
82.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
82.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
81.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Marcelino BallSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 7
OWN 29
-4
81.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 18%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
84.9%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
85.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
85.2%
Richard Lagow run for 7 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
82.3%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
83.6%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+36
83.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 36 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
84.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
84.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 11 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
84.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Tony FieldsSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
84.1%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
83.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron Green, broken up by Jonathan CrawfordSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 3
OPP 16
0
82.9%
Matt Micucci pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 15%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
87.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 4 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
87.6%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
85.5%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:0685% → 93%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
85.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 7 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+16
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 16 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
85.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 11 yds to the Ind 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Ind 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Rashard FantSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 11 yds to the Ind 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
86.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 2Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
92.8%
Jack Mitchell 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 3:4110% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
89.9%
Devine Redding run for 8 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
89.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 33 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
88.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+9
89.1%
Devine Redding run for 9 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-2
89.3%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+8
89.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 8 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.7%
Mike Majette run for no gain to the Nwest 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
88.7%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
89.7%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky Jones, broken up by Marcus McShepardSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
85.9%
Griffin Oakes 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
90.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+13
90.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 13 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
90.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
90.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
90.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
89.7%
TEAM puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
88.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
87.7%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
88.3%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
88.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
92.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 12
OWN 42
0
92.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete, broken up by Ralph Green IIISimilar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+13
91.9%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete (Dutra, Chase), PENALTY IND pass interference (Dutra, Chase) 13 yards to the IND45, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete, broken up by Robert McCray IIISimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
92.3%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-7
92.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Mike Barwick Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 3:329% → 16%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
91.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+15
90.4%
Devonte Williams run for 15 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
90.3%
Devonte Williams run for 1 yd to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
90.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick Westbrook, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
91.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 18 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
91.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 14 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
90.3%
Devonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
90.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+3
91.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 3 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+23
91.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 19 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Kyle Queiro) to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.6%
Nick Westbrook run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) INDIANA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
88.9%
Justin Jackson run for 17 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
89.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-1
89.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-5
88.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Nile Sykes for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
87.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:5712% → 9%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
87.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Camion Patrick for 7 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-1
86.9%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
88.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 6 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
87.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 16 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
86.6%
Devonte Williams run for 24 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 28 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-17
84.9%
Williams, D. rush for 2 yards to the NU26 (Igwebuike, G.;Walker, Jr. A.), PENALTY IND clipping 17 yards to the NU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 27
OPP 45
+18
86.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Camion Patrick for 18 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
85.2%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-9
86.5%
Richard Lagow sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 18
OPP 36
+53
90.7%
Griffin Oakes 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-4
92.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
91.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+3
91.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 36 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 3 yds to the Ind 36 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 8%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
90.4%
Lagow, Richard rush for 1 yard to the IND40, out-of-bounds (Miller, Alex), PENALTY IND holding (Cronk, Coy) 10 yards to the IND29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+13
91.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 13 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
90.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-6
90.7%
Richard Lagow sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 36Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+2
92.0%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 49 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 2 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
93.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+9
93.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 9 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 2 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
93.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
93.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
93.7%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
93.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
92.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, downed at the Ind 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
94.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 8 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
93.8%
Richard Lagow pass intercepted Kyle Queiro return for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0495% → 95%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
95.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
94.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-9
95.0%
Matt Alviti sacked by Nile Sykes for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 15
OWN 26
+4
95.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 36 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 4 yds to the Ind 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28DOWNS
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:404% → 3%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.6%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Devine ReddingSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 9 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
95.3%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+9
96.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
95.6%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 17 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
95.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 9 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+6
95.3%
Devine Redding run for 6 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
95.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Donavan Hale for 4 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
95.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Donavan Hale for 1 yd to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+2
95.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 2 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 3
OPP 6
0
96.9%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29SF
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4398% → 97%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
97.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
98.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-2
98.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 8
OWN 8
-4
98.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the Nwest 4Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 12
OWN 4
-4
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETY NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:51
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 32 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q3 2:49
Nick Westbrook run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) INDIANA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined
-8.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Jack Mitchell 19 yd FG GOOD
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com