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ILL

Illinois 8 at Michigan 41

MICH
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:55 · Ryan Frain punt for 44 yds, downed at the Mich 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior+29.2Home team on offense+26.7Score differential+24.3Blowout margin+11.6Garbage-time factor+9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:23: Jake Butt 3 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +0.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:52: Tyrone Wheatley 21 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:01: Khalid Hill 1 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:00: De'Veon Smith 4 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:22: Malik Turner 43 Yd pass from Jeff George Jr. (Jeff George Jr. Pass to Zach Grant for Two-Point Conversion) — ILL win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:39ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:52ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:50ILL 4th & 10 at MICH 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:34ILL 4th & 12 at MICH 38, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:24MICH 4th & 22 at MICH 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00MICH 4th & 4 at ILL 5, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:55ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:10MICH 4th & 20 at ILL 39, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:02ILL 4th & 3 at MICH 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:43MICH 4th & 4 at ILL 10, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:10ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 28, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:30MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 45, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:05ILL 4th & 26 at ILL 33, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:56MICH 4th & 2 at ILL 34, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:23MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:52MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:01MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:00MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:22ILL Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:48MICH Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3396% → 96%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
96.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 9 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
96.1%
Ty Isaac run for 6 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+33
96.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 33 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
96.0%
Jabrill Peppers run for 4 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+7
95.9%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
95.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 5 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
95.8%
Jabrill Peppers run for 1 yd to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.9%
Jake Butt 3 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:444% → 4%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
95.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-5
95.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 18 Ke'Shawn Vaughn fumbled, recovered by Illin Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
95.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+26
95.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the MICHIGAN 41 ILLINOIS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:2496% → 96%
Q1 8:16
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+16
95.7%
Chris Evans run for 16 yds to the Illin 21 Chris Evans fumbled, forced by Carroll Phillips, recovered by Mich Jake Butt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
96.1%
Tyrone Wheatley 21 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:004% → 4%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
95.9%
Kendrick Foster run for 17 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
95.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 17
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:5196% → 97%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
96.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+19
95.9%
Eddie McDoom run for 19 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
96.0%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+13
96.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 13 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
95.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 21 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
95.8%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+10
95.7%
Wilton Speight run for 10 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.6%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.5%
Speight, Wilton pass incomplete to Butt, Jake, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Jones, Julian) 0 yards to the ILLINOIS1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q1 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Khalid Hill 1 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
96.8%
George Jr., Jeff pass incomplete to White, Tyler, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing passer (Godin, Matthew) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
96.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
96.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
96.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
96.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (Ryan Frain) to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+9
97.0%
TEAM punt for 9 yds, blocked by Khaleke Hudson to the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:5097% → 98%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
97.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 13 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
97.5%
Jabrill Peppers run for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+16
97.5%
Karan Higdon run for 16 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
97.6%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+27
97.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 27 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
97.4%
Jabrill Peppers run for 3 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.4%
De'Veon Smith 4 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:262% → 1%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
98.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+45
98.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 45 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
98.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-10
98.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Allegretti) to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+5
98.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 5 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
98.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 30 yds, downed at the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 5:1099% → 99%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
98.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+14
98.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 14 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
98.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
98.8%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.9%
Jehu Chesson run for 5 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+14
99.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 14 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
99.1%
Jabrill Peppers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 13
OPP 49
-9
99.1%
Wilton Speight sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 22
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to De'Veon SmithSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 22
OWN 42
+13
99.0%
Kenny Allen punt for 41 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 13 yds to the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.2%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted Dymonte Thomas return for 4 yds to the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+13
99.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 13 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-3
99.4%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
99.4%
Kenny Allen 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:011% → 0%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.6%
Jeff George Jr. run for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 44 yds, downed at the Mich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 15 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
99.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 17 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
99.7%
Ty Isaac run for 15 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.7%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 12
OPP 31
-8
99.7%
Wilton Speight sacked by Hardy Nickerson for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 20
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Kenny Allen punt for 24 yds, downed at the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 58 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.7%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
99.7%
Malik Turner run for no gain to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+43
99.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 43 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
99.7%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 6 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+7
99.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 7 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Mich Mike McCraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
99.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 17
OWN 20
+17
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 17 yds Jehu Chesson fumbled, forced by Stanley Green, recovered by Illin James CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:240% → 1%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
99.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Zach GrantSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Kendrick FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:19100% → 100%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
99.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devin Asiasi) to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+30
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
50
0
99.8%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
50
+22
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 22 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.8%
Karan Higdon run for 9 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
99.8%
Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+4
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Nate Johnson for 4 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
99.9%
Kenny Allen 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Zach Grant for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
99.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Henry Poggi) to the Mich 11Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+1
99.9%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 19
OWN 12
+2
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Maurice Ways for 2 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+22
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 22 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
John O'Korn run for 3 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Eddie McDoom run for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
John O'Korn run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-2
99.9%
Ben Gedeon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 43 Ben Gedeon fumbled, recovered by Mich Ben GedeonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
1 play · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.9%
Malik Turner 43 Yd pass from Jeff George Jr. (Jeff George Jr. Pass to Zach Grant for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.7%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+2
99.8%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
99.8%
O'Korn, John pass incomplete to Harris, Drake, PENALTY ILLINOIS roughing passer (Watson, Tre) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN. Tre Watson ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Karan Higdon 45 Yd Run (Ryan Tice Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
99.9%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-13
99.9%
Jeff George Jr. sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 13 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 26
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME
15 plays · 45 yds · 7:05100% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Tyrone Wheatley for 6 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+23
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Bobby Henderson for 23 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Joe Hewlett run for no gain to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Drake Harris for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Bobby Henderson run for 3 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:01
Khalid Hill 1 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)
+1.7
TD · Q2 11:00
De'Veon Smith 4 Yd Run (Kenny Allen Kick)
+1
TD · Q1 7:52
Tyrone Wheatley 21 Yd pass from Wilton Speight (Kenny Allen Kick)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com