Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 17 at Maryland 28

MD
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:07 · TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the Mary 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:41: LJ Scott run for 48 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:41: Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 36 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene PAT MISSED) — MD win probability +7.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:38: Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:49: Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +21.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:23: Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +17.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00MSU 4th & 8 at MD 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37MD 4th & 10 at MD 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:41MSU 4th & 18 at MD 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MD 4th & 7 at MSU 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35MD 4th & 9 at MD 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:31MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00MD 4th & 18 at MD 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−3.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:11MD 4th & 11 at MSU 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:35MSU 4th & 7 at MD 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−13.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:49MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:32MD 4th & 1 at MSU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−6.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−7.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:23MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 40, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:07MD 4th & 15 at MSU 43, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%
    28% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:51MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:41MSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:41MD Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:38MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:49MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:23MD Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
47.4%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
47.4%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
47.4%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
47.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
47.4%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
47.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-6
47.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
47.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 26 yds, downed at the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
48.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Riley Bullough) to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.6%
D.J. Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
48.5%
Perry Hills run for 3 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+7
48.4%
Perry Hills run for 7 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
48.9%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
48.7%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
48.4%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
48.3%
Wade Lees punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
48.7%
LJ Scott run for 12 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.6%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
48.2%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
48.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
50
0
47.9%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Alvin Hill return for no gain to the Mary 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 3:2249% → 56%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
49.0%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 1 yd to the Mary 5Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+37
48.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 22 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, roughing passer (Riley Bullough) to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
49.8%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+14
49.1%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 35 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Riley Bullough) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
50
+16
50.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Ty Johnson for 16 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
50.3%
D.J. Moore run for 7 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
50.4%
Hills, P. pass incomplete to Moore, D., PENALTY MSU offside (Williams, Kevin) 4 yards to the MSU23, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
50.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 7 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+8
50.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 8 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
56.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 8 yds for a TD, (K. Goins Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
54.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+9
54.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 9 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
53.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
53.3%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
54.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Gerald Holmes MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 3
OPP 28
-15
54.8%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to Shelton, R.J. for 7 yards to the UMD21 (Hill, A.;Davis, R.), PENALTY MSU pass interference (Madaris, Monty) 15 yards to the UMD43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
55.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
56.5%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
56.4%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+15
55.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 15 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
57.1%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
57.7%
Perry Hills pass complete to Derrick Hayward for 5 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
57.7%
Rowe, C. pass incomplete to Jacobs, L., PENALTY UMD holding (Dunn, M.) 10 yards to the UMD38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+6
57.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+7
57.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 7 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
57.2%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
56.2%
Wade Lees punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:3240% → 50%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
59.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, delay of game (Brian Lewerke) to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+3
59.8%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+24
60.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 24 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
59.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 15 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
50.4%
LJ Scott run for 48 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
53.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison for 5 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-4
53.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 20 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
52.2%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Kenneth Goins Jr.Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
51.6%
Wade Lees punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
51.1%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
50.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
51.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+3
53.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 3 yds to the Mary 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:4655% → 64%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+40
54.5%
Ty Johnson run for 40 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
50
+6
56.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 6 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
57.1%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
56.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 5 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
64.3%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 36 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:5839% → 54%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
61.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 9 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+26
59.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 26 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
58.8%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+16
59.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 16 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
57.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
57.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 8 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
57.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
57.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
61.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:1054% → 55%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
54.3%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 2 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+21
54.5%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 21 yds to the Mary 49 Lorenzo Harrison fumbled, forced by Chris Frey, recovered by MchSt David DowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0053% → 56%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
46.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton, broken up by Josh WoodsSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+21
47.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 21 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
44.3%
Michael Geiger run for 4 yds to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
52.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 4 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
51.7%
Perry Hills sacked by Malik McDowell for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
50.8%
Wade Lees punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
46.9%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
46.1%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
46.4%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+18
46.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 18 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
45.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton, broken up by JC JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
45.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+12
46.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Monty Madaris for 12 yds Monty Madaris fumbled, forced by JC Jackson, recovered by Mary Chandler BurkettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
53.1%
Ty Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-6
53.1%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 4Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+15
51.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 15 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+37
53.5%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 37 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
57.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison for 5 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-6
57.7%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the MchSt 35 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (Teldrick Morgan) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+4
57.0%
Perry Hills run for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+6
54.2%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
53.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Khari WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:2150% → 59%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.0%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
47.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+18
49.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 18 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
46.8%
LJ Scott run for 11 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
45.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+7
45.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
45.1%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
45.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
46.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
41.3%
Michael Geiger 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4644% → 73%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
44.5%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
45.5%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.8%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+44
44.5%
Ty Johnson run for 44 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
52.0%
Ty Johnson run for 18 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
52.1%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.0%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 22 yds · 0:0035% → 30%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
66.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 12 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
63.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 8 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
61.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
61.5%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to Scott, LJ for 16 yards to the UMD35, out-of-bounds (Woods, J.), PENALTY MSU pass interference (Madaris, Monty) 15 yards to the MSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 25
OWN 34
+6
65.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+7
65.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
70.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Teldrick Morgan at the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 5:0973% → 96%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
72.9%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
76.9%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
77.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
76.5%
Perry Hills run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+8
74.5%
Ty Johnson run for 8 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
78.6%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+15
78.6%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 15 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.6%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
95.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 20 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
94.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Donnie Corley, broken up by Alvin HillSimilar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
94.9%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Roman Braglio for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+10
95.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · -11 yds · 2:1296% → 97%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
50
+1
96.4%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
96.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Terrance Davis) to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+16
96.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 16 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 15
OPP 43
-18
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the Mary 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:49
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
+21
TD · Q4 3:23
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q2 0:38
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com