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NU

Northwestern 54 at Michigan State 40

MSU
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-4.6MSU 57.7%Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 19 - HOME 17 · Q2 6:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:42 · Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense−3.6Pregame prior+9.7Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:28: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 57 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +15.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:49: Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +18.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:08: Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 86 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:53: Kevin Cronin kickoff for 60 yds , Solomon Vault return for 95 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +20.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:25: Justin Jackson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +20.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MSU 4th & 7 at NU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30NU 4th & 6 at NU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:31NU 4th & 7 at NU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:48MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 17, up 14
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15MSU 4th & 4 at NU 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:42NU 4th & 10 at MSU 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:37MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19NU 4th & 16 at NU 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:09MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:23MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:54NU 4th & 5 at NU 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:36NU 4th & 12 at MSU 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:02NU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−4.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:02MSU 4th & 3 at NU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:31NU 4th & 4 at NU 49, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:53MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:31MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:32NU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:04NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:28NU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:49NU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:54MSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:08MSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:53NU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:25NU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:10MSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:02NU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
65.9%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+33
65.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 33 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
65.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+2
65.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
65.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
65.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds, downed at the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
65.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+1
65.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 5Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
65.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
65.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 1:2166% → 68%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
66.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 24 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
66.1%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
67.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Josiah Price for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4INT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2233% → 31%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
66.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
66.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
66.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+43
69.3%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Justin Layne return for 43 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
69.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete NORTHWESTERN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
69.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
69.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 62 yds, downed at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
70.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
70.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
70.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
70.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:4329% → 33%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
70.6%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+11
70.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 11 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
70.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
70.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
69.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
69.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
70.2%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
69.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 6 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+29
67.1%
Justin Jackson run for 29 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:1768% → 70%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
68.4%
LJ Scott run for 23 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
69.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 8
50
+4
69.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Josiah Price for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
69.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
69.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Prescott Line for 12 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
69.6%
Donnie Corley run for 5 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-10
69.6%
Scott, LJ rush for 10 yards to the NU14 (Igwebuike, Godwin;Hartage, Montre), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the NU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+9
69.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 9 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
69.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 2 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
69.9%
Michael Geiger 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0630% → 37%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
69.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
69.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
68.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
68.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 7 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
68.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
68.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
68.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 15 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
67.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+10
67.8%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete to Wilson, Macan, QB hurry by Cooper, Demetrius, PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU14, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
67.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
67.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
62.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds for a TD MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10SF
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:3564% → 63%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
64.4%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
64.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 8
OWN 7
-7
63.4%
Joe Gaziano SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3738% → 42%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
62.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 8 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
61.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
62.0%
Justin Jackson run for 22 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
61.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 13
OPP 19
-5
61.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 18
OPP 24
+8
61.9%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
62.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
57.7%
Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Monty Madaris, broken up by Trae WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
60.0%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
59.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+7
58.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 7 yds to the Nwest 29 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:1043% → 41%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
57.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-1
57.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+10
58.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 10 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
56.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-8
57.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Malik McDowell and Josh Butler for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 16
OWN 36
+6
59.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
58.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+5
58.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 5 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
57.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+5
56.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 61 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 5 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
56.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3244% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
54.5%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
55.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 12 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
40.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 57 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for no gain to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
43.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
43.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Donnie Corley for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
45.3%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
45.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
44.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
43.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:2860% → 81%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
40.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 7 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+1
39.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+11
40.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 11 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
39.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 8 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+14
38.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
37.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 20 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
37.3%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
37.0%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
18.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5523% → 38%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.3%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
23.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 14 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
38.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 59 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
35.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
35.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
37.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 5 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
35.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 17 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
37.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
36.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-5
35.4%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 41 Tyler O'Connor fumbled, recovered by Nwest Joe Gaziano , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
30.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-6
31.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
33.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
52.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 86 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5331% → 29%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
31.2%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Jr. Anthony Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
30.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 7 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
29.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.0%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
30.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
29.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Jared McGee return for no gain to the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:1871% → 95%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
28.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
29.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 5 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+4
29.7%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete to Nagel, Flynn, PENALTY MSU offside defense 4 yards to the NU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
30.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
29.6%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+8
28.6%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
28.7%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
26.5%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
26.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
25.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+16
26.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 16 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
24.9%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
25.0%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
4.8%
Justin Jackson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:098% → 21%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
7.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Delton Williams for 22 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
8.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 19 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
9.8%
R.J. Shelton pass complete to Josiah Price for 19 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
10.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 7 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
20.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:0787% → 97%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
12.6%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
12.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 7 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
12.4%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+1
12.4%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+5
10.3%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+29
2.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 29 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
3.0%
R.J. Shelton pass complete to Donnie Corley for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
50
0
3.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
50
+7
3.1%
Tyler O'Connor run for 7 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
3.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty Madaris, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
3.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton, broken up by Kyle QueiroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3898% → 98%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
2.0%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+3
2.1%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+4
2.0%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+13
1.7%
Hunter Niswander punt blocked by Edward Barksdale blocked by Edward Barksdale Jalen Watts-Jackson return for 13 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 31FG
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:262% → 1%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
1.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+13
1.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 13 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
1.4%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 15 yards to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+7
1.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 7 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
1.2%
Michael Geiger 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:53
Kevin Cronin kickoff for 60 yds , Solomon Vault return for 95 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q4 8:25
Justin Jackson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-20.2
TD · Q3 2:08
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 86 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com