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MINN

Minnesota 31 at Maryland 10

MD
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:27 · TEAM run for no gain to the Mary 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:27: Rodney Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +5.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Conor Rhoda pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 17 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +12.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:21: Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +8.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:30: Rodney Smith run for 70 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +6.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:42: Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +4.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MD 4th & 3 at MD 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:58MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33MINN 4th & 8 at MD 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:32MD 4th & 11 at MINN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MINN 4th & 17 at MINN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:21MD 4th & 15 at MD 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:29MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:03MD 4th & 1 at MD 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:48MINN 4th & 4 at MD 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:24MD 4th & 4 at MD 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:21MINN 4th & 3 at MD 19, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%−0.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:16MD 4th & 20 at MD 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:24MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:34MD 4th & 21 at MD 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:15MD 4th & 9 at MINN 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−7.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:24MD 4th & 2 at MINN 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:09MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:45MD 4th & 17 at MD 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 13:27MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:14MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:30MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:42MD Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:08MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
56.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 5 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
56.2%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
56.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
56.2%
Wade Lees punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Myrick at the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
56.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
56.2%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
56.2%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Nate Wozniak, broken up by Jermaine Carter Jr.Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
56.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 42 yds , William Likely returns for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
56.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass intercepted KiAnte Hardin return for no gain to the Mary 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4944% → 44%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
56.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 16 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
56.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
56.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-5
56.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Jared Weyler) to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+2
56.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
56.3%
Emmit Carpenter 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
15 plays · 35 yds · 2:0157% → 57%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
56.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Michael Dunn) to the Mary 15Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+12
56.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 12 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
56.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 5 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
56.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 5 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
56.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 4 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
57.3%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
57.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
57.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 5 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
57.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 3 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-10
57.7%
Harrison, L. rush for 6 yards to the MINN35, out-of-bounds (Hardin, KiAnte), PENALTY UMD holding (Davis, T.) 10 yards to the UMD49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 17
OWN 49
0
57.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+6
56.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 6 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
56.8%
Wade Lees punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2643% → 43%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
56.8%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
56.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
56.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
56.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-5
56.5%
Rhoda, Conor pass complete to Still, Rashad for 11 yards to the MINN45, out-of-bounds (Jackson, J.), PENALTY MINN illegal formation 5 yards to the MINN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+26
56.8%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Rashad Still for 26 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
55.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-6
55.6%
Conor Rhoda run for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 48 Conor Rhoda fumbled, recovered by Minn Conor RhodaSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 48
0
56.3%
Conor Rhoda pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
57.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 36 yds , William Likely returns for no gain to the Mary 16 William Likely fumbled, recovered by Minn Thomas BarberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:1846% → 51%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
54.4%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
54.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
48.8%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
50.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-3
50.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 7 yds to the Mary 25 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (Damian Prince) to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 16
OWN 15
-5
50.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Damian Prince) to the Mary 10Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 21
OWN 10
0
50.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+6
50.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 6 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
49.7%
Wade Lees punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 34 , Jalen Myrick returns for no gain to the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
49.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 10 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
48.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
48.3%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
48.7%
Conor Rhoda sacked by Chandler Burkett for 0 yards to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
49.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2949% → 46%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
49.0%
Harrison, L. rush for 6 yards to the UMD31 (Hardin, KiAnte), PENALTY UMD holding (Morgan, T.) 10 yards to the UMD15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
48.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Jermaine Carter Jr.Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+11
48.1%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 21 yds to the Mary 36 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (D.J. Moore) to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
48.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 8 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
45.7%
Wade Lees punt for 49 yds , Drew Wolitarsky returns for 11 yds to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:0555% → 56%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
45.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Nate Wozniak) to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+11
46.2%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
44.9%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.4%
Conor Rhoda run for no gain to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
44.7%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Rodney Smith for 10 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
44.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
42.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-2
42.6%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
44.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
45.2%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
45.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+5
44.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 5 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+17
44.0%
Wade Lees punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 47 , Jalen Myrick returns for 17 yds to the Mary 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:5260% → 73%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
39.8%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+8
39.2%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
39.1%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
39.2%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 8 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
39.3%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+5
40.9%
Brooks, Shannon rush for 3 yards to the UMD19 (Braglio, R.), PENALTY UMD offside (Ellis, T.) 5 yards to the UMD17, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
38.9%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Brian Smith, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
26.9%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 17 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
31.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 6:3271% → 81%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
29.3%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 10 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+5
28.3%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 5 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
27.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
27.8%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
27.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
28.2%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
28.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
28.1%
Rhoda, Conor pass incomplete to Still, Rashad, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Daniels, Elis.) 10 yards to the UMD26, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
27.4%
Conor Rhoda run for 2 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+2
27.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+3
27.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
27.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
19.0%
Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
20.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 10 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
20.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 17
OWN 30
-3
20.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 20
OWN 27
0
19.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 20
OWN 27
+2
19.7%
Wade Lees punt for 49 yds , Jalen Myrick returns for 2 yds to the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
16.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-5
16.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Nate Wozniak) to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
16.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
17.2%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Brian Smith, broken up by Tino EllisSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+22
17.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 37 yds MINNESOTA Penalty, kick catching interference (Antonio Shenault) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
50
0
19.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
50
-10
18.7%
Johnson, T. rush for 5 yards to the MINN45, out-of-bounds (Myrick, Jalen), PENALTY UMD holding (Dunn, M.) 10 yards to the UMD40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+1
17.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Lorenzo Harrison for 1 yd to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 19
OWN 41
-2
17.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Jonathan Celestin for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
17.1%
Wade Lees punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Myrick at the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5587% → 90%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
13.4%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
13.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
13.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 33 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (Brandon Lingen) to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 18
OWN 23
0
13.5%
Conor Rhoda pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Chandler BurkettSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 18
OWN 23
-5
13.6%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 23
OWN 18
+9
14.0%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+15
10.5%
Ryan Santoso punt for 60 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 15 yds to the Mary 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2913% → 15%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
12.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 11 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
13.5%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
13.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+20
13.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 20 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
14.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+16
15.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 16 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
15.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to DeAndre LaneSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
15.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
14.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Jonathan CelestinSimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
15.3%
Adam Greene 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:3891% → 98%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
9.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
8.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+70
2.0%
Rodney Smith run for 70 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:423% → 8%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
2.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+20
2.8%
Ty Johnson run for 20 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
3.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 31 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
3.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 9 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
3.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-1
3.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+6
3.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 6 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
3.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the Minn 12Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+1
3.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
7.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 11 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3095% → 96%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
5.5%
Conor Rhoda run for no gain to the Minn 14Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
5.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+1
5.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 5
OWN 19
-2
4.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 52 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24INT TD
13 plays · 51 yds · 2:504% → 1%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
3.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
3.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 5 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
3.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 4 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Levern Jacobs, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
3.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 11 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to DeAndre LaneSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
3.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 8 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
4.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 5 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
4.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
4.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 11 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
4.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 3 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
4.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+82
1.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass intercepted for a TD Antoine Winfield Jr. return for 82 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25FUMBLE
9 plays · -4 yds · 0:231% → 1%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Malcolm CulmerSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 12 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
0.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
0.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to DeAndre LaneSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 17
OWN 30
0
0.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 17
OWN 30
-9
0.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Gary Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 21 Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, recovered by Minn Gaelin Elmore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the Mary 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 17 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
-12
FG · Q3 8:21
Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOOD
-8.7
TD · Q4 9:30
Rodney Smith run for 70 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com