Try the model
NEB

Nebraska 27 at Indiana 22

IU
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:13 · Caleb Lightbourn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−13.9Home team on offense−11.0Score differential−5.0Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:33: Richard Lagow pass intercepted for a TD Chris Jones return for 33 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +4.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Devine Redding run for 33 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +23.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 9:57: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 72 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +18.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:26: Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +31.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 0:45: Drew Brown 39 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +7.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:46NEB 4th & 9 at IU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:08IU 4th & 7 at NEB 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:03IU 4th & 18 at IU 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 42, up 17
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12IU 4th & 7 at NEB 40, down 17
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:29NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:23IU 4th & 16 at NEB 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:13NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 48, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:32IU 4th & 1 at IU 44, down 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:18IU 4th & 10 at NEB 28, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:38IU 4th & 15 at IU 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:09NEB 4th & 11 at NEB 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:39IU 4th & 4 at IU 49, down 9
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:59NEB 4th & 10 at IU 40, up 9
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:46IU 4th & 3 at NEB 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−2.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:09NEB 4th & 13 at NEB 27, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:12IU 4th & 5 at IU 42, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:54NEB 4th & 1 at IU 48, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.2%−8.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:45NEB 4th & 12 at IU 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−10.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−30.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:47NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:33NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:00IU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:57NEB Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:26IU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:0472% → 70%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.9%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
28.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 12 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
28.1%
Terrell Newby run for 9 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
28.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Bryan ReimersSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
28.4%
Tre Bryant run for 1 yd to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
28.8%
Terrell Newby run for 11 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
28.9%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+17
29.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 17 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
29.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Ind 24Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
29.5%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Ind 23Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
29.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
29.9%
Drew Brown 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:2330% → 31%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
29.9%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+22
30.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 22 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
30.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ind 49Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+12
30.9%
Devine Redding run for 12 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
31.2%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Neb 39Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
31.4%
Mike Majette run for 3 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
31.5%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
31.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Luke TimianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:1369% → 72%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
30.6%
Tre Bryant run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+45
31.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 45 yds to the Ind 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
30.2%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Ind 21Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
30.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+17
30.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 17 yds to the Ind 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.9%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
23.5%
Richard Lagow pass intercepted for a TD Chris Jones return for 33 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2724% → 23%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.5%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.6%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
23.4%
Richard Lagow sacked by Marcus Newby for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+47
23.1%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 47 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0177% → 78%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
22.8%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
22.3%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
22.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
22.2%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:1623% → 23%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
22.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 18 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
23.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Joshua Kalu) to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
23.6%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 47Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
23.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 10 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
23.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 4 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
23.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-1
23.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mike Majette for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
23.0%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 36 yds, downed at the Neb 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8SF
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3079% → 76%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
20.7%
Tre Bryant run for no gain to the Neb 4Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
20.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 4
-2
21.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Conrad) to the Neb 2Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 2
+7
21.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
23.9%
Caleb Lightbourn punt blocked by Chase Dutra for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:5724% → 25%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
24.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
23.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 9 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+10
24.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 10 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
23.7%
Devonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+9
23.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devonte Williams for 9 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+9
23.7%
Zander Diamont run for 9 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
23.5%
Zander Diamont run for 9 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+18
23.9%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Donavan Hale for 18 yds to the Neb 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
23.8%
Devonte Williams run for 5 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
23.7%
Zander Diamont run for 2 yds to the Neb 6Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-10
23.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Danny Friend) to the Neb 16Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-3
22.7%
Zander Diamont sacked by Dedrick Young II for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 19Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 16
OPP 19
+36
24.6%
Griffin Oakes 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5776% → 76%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
24.3%
Terrell Newby run for 18 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
23.3%
Brandon Reilly run for 6 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
23.2%
Tre Bryant run for 2 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
23.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
24.0%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3124% → 24%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
24.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 4 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
24.1%
Mike Majette run for 3 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+13
23.9%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 13 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
24.4%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 6 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
25.1%
Tyler Natee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
24.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 4 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
24.3%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 40 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 2 yds to the Neb 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3177% → 78%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
23.4%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 17Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+4
22.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Jonathan Crawford return for 4 yds to the Neb 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2527% → 26%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
26.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for no gain to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
26.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
24.7%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
26.2%
Griffin Oakes 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0675% → 75%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
25.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
25.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 12 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
24.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
22.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-15
23.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Brandon Reilly) to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+8
25.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 8 yds to the Neb 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:0827% → 25%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
26.7%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
26.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Danny Friend for 6 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+7
26.4%
Mitchell Paige run for 7 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
27.0%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-13
27.3%
Richard Lagow sacked by Aaron Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the Ind 23Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+5
25.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ind 28Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
25.2%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+15
24.7%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 46 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 15 yds to the Neb 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1776% → 74%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
24.1%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
24.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 40Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
24.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
25.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:0626% → 25%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
25.6%
Zander Diamont run for 2 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
25.6%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 8 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
26.6%
Zander Diamont run for 6 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
27.6%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Mitchell PaigeSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
26.9%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
25.3%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3276% → 77%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Trey FosterSimilar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
24.2%
Brandon Reilly run for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
24.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 15 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
22.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
22.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+9
22.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 9 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
22.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
22.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
23.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:5924% → 22%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.0%
Devonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
24.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Leon Thornton III for 11 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.8%
Devonte Williams run for no gain to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
24.6%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+14
23.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 14 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
26.9%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kevin Maurice) to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
27.1%
Zander Diamont run for 4 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
28.6%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Ricky Jones for 4 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-1
24.1%
Mike Majette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+2
22.3%
Zander Diamont run for 2 yds to the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3180% → 78%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-13
19.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by TEAM for a loss of 13 yards to the Neb 17 NEBRASKA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Neb 17Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 23
OWN 17
+9
20.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+1
21.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 1 yd to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+39
21.6%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 45 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 39 yds to the Neb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0425% → 49%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
25.2%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
49.1%
Devine Redding run for 33 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1465% → 65%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
35.5%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
35.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Tony Fields return for no gain to the Ind 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2844% → 41%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
43.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 1 yd to the Ind 38Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
44.1%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 39Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+3
41.9%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+9
40.7%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 52 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 9 yds to the Neb 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:0364% → 83%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
35.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 16Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+11
36.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 11 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
34.7%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-5
33.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
35.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+72
17.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 72 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1515% → 52%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
15.3%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 24 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
17.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 11 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
18.7%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 36 yds to the Neb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.6%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Neb 4Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26FG
19 plays · 60 yds · 7:0564% → 94%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
35.7%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+12
36.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 12 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
32.8%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
30.9%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
29.9%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
28.0%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
25.1%
Tre Bryant run for no gain to the Ind 48Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
25.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
21.3%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
19.6%
Terrell Newby run for 13 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
14.1%
Terrell Newby run for 14 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
13.0%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Ind 20Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
12.6%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for 1 yd to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-3
11.5%
Brandon Reilly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
5.8%
Drew Brown 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 27INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0711% → 10%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
9.8%
Richard Lagow pass intercepted Aaron Williams return for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:26
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)
+31.7
TD · Q3 0:00
Devine Redding run for 33 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)
+23.8
TD · Q4 9:57
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 72 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com