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MD

Maryland 14 at Penn State 38

PSU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:12 · Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense+9.9Pregame prior+4.0Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:13: Perry Hills pass complete to Ty Johnson for 66 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +2.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:06: Trace McSorley run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:52: Tyrrell Pigrome run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +12.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:15: Saquon Barkley run for 45 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:27MD 4th & 26 at MD 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:08PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:07PSU 4th & 4 at MD 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:20PSU 4th & 6 at MD 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:20MD 4th & 5 at MD 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:00MD 4th & 8 at MD 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:29PSU 4th & 21 at PSU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−2.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:03PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MD 4th & 4 at MD 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:12PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.1%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:52MD 4th & 2 at PSU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−1.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−9.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:47PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 44, up 10
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:14MD 4th & 8 at MD 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:55MD 4th & 10 at MD 40, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:03PSU 4th & 18 at MD 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:58MD 4th & 11 at MD 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:10MD 4th & 5 at MD 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:33PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:13MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:06PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:52MD Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:15PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:15PSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:2759% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
58.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 21 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
58.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+17
58.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 17 yds to the PENNST 43 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, OFF ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
58.7%
Trace McSorley run for 17 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
58.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 20 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
58.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Mary 5Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
59.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.5%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-8
59.5%
Perry Hills sacked by Garrett Sickels for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-9
59.8%
Perry Hills sacked by Evan Schwan for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 19Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 26
OWN 19
+8
59.8%
Wade Lees punt for 38 yds , John Reid returns for 8 yds to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
61.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
61.2%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 19
OWN 42
+5
60.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds , William Likely returns for 5 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-15
61.0%
McSorley, Trace pass complete to Gesicki, Mike for 31 yards to the UMD12, out-of-bounds, PENALTY PSU pass interference 15 yards to the PSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 19
OWN 42
0
60.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:4339% → 42%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
60.9%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
60.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
61.0%
Perry Hills run for 8 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
60.8%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by John ReidSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+66
58.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Ty Johnson for 66 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
58.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
58.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
58.8%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
59.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
59.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 9 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
59.6%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
59.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
59.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
59.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean Hamilton, broken up by William LikelySimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
59.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 29 yds, downed at the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6INT
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
58.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 3 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-5
58.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Mary 5Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+11
58.8%
Perry Hills run for 11 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+29
58.9%
Teldrick Morgan run for 29 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.6%
Perry Hills pass intercepted Brandon Smith return for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:4660% → 61%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
60.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+14
60.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 14 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
59.8%
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
60.4%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Mary 39 PENN ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Trace McSorley) to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+4
59.6%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
61.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-2
61.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+5
60.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 5 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
61.0%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
61.0%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
60.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
60.7%
Tyler Davis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.6%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
60.4%
Perry Hills run for 2 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
60.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for no gain to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
61.7%
Wade Lees punt for 37 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:1861% → 71%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
60.6%
Mark Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+25
60.3%
Trace McSorley run for 25 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
62.4%
Mark Allen run for 6 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
62.4%
Mark Allen run for 4 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
62.8%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
62.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+7
62.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
62.8%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
62.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon Barkley, broken up by Jalen BrooksSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-10
63.8%
Barkley, Saquon rush for 14 yards to the UMD0, clock 06:17, PENALTY PSU holding (Bates, Ryan) 10 yards to the UMD24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+15
62.1%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Gesicki, Mike, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Savage, D.) 15 yards to the UMD9, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
70.6%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.2%
Ty Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
69.4%
Perry Hills run for 7 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
69.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
70.8%
Wade Lees punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0071% → 68%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
71.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
71.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-13
69.9%
Trace McSorley sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 13 yards to the PnSt 30 PENN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Trace McSorley) to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 21
OWN 30
0
67.7%
TEAM punt blocked by Lorenzo Harrison blocked by Lorenzo Harrison Chandler Burkett return for no gain to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
66.8%
Perry Hills sacked by Koa Farmer for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 20 Perry Hills fumbled, recovered by PnSt Torrence Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2871% → 71%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
70.5%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
70.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-9
69.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Darnell Savage Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+5
70.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 37 , William Likely returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:0330% → 43%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
70.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 26 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
69.0%
Perry Hills run for 4 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
56.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:2662% → 75%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
62.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 25 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.0%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
74.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 45 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:1073% → 74%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
74.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (10 Yards) to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.8%
Ty Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
72.6%
Trey Edmunds run for 1 yd to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
73.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (-5 Yards) to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
74.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.8%
Wade Lees punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18FUMBLE
11 plays · 65 yds · 0:0075% → 77%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
75.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+13
75.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
76.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
76.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
74.9%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+9
74.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
76.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 6 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-3
76.6%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+12
75.8%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
76.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
76.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Mary 11 Saquon Barkley fumbled, forced by William Likely, recovered by Mary William LikelySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:2322% → 20%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
77.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 11Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+15
77.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 15 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+44
77.4%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 44 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
74.0%
Trey Edmunds run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+2
74.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+8
75.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 8 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 2
OPP 22
-5
80.4%
Jake Funk run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
82.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 6 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
82.8%
Mark Allen run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
82.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
83.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
82.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete, broken up by Shane CockerilleSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
82.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds , William Likely returns for no gain to the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
83.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 12 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
82.5%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+4
83.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 4 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
83.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
84.0%
Wade Lees punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:4285% → 95%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.8%
Mark Allen run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+70
94.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
93.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Ty Johnson for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
93.8%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+8
93.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 8 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by John ReidSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
93.7%
Trey Edmunds run for 9 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
93.4%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
93.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+5
93.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 5 yds to the Mary 40 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
93.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
96.6%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+2
96.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-8
96.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Jesse Aniebonam and Kingsley Opara for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
96.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 38 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
96.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Levern Jacobs for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 8Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+1
96.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the Mary 9Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 9
0
96.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
96.5%
Wade Lees punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2597% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
97.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
97.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
97.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
97.2%
Mark Allen run for 1 yd to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+14
97.2%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Gesicki, Mike, PENALTY UMD pass interference (Cockerille, S.) 14 yards to the UMD25, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.5%
Miles Sanders run for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
99.4%
Teldrick Morgan run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+7
99.4%
Ty Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+3
99.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 3 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Wade Lees punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.5%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+17
99.6%
Mark Allen run for 17 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
99.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 13 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 8 yds to the Mary 14 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jonathan Holland) to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 12
OPP 24
-3
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:52
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 0:00
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 0:15
Saquon Barkley run for 45 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com