Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 26 at Penn State 29

PSU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Beaver Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.9PSU 59.9%Tyler Davis 19 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q2 12:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:00 · Tyler Davis 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 57Home team on offense+1.0Pregame prior+6.3Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:27: Trace McSorley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +17.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:29: Shannon Brooks run for 37 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +23.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:54: Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +34.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:02: Tyler Davis 40 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +44.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Saquon Barkley 25 Yd Run — PSU win probability +55.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:18MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:32PSU 4th & 5 at MINN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:32PSU 4th & 2 at MINN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00PSU 4th & 1 at MINN 1, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:53MINN 4th & 8 at PSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:00PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:47MINN 4th & 1 at PSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−2.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:28PSU 4th & 18 at PSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:45MINN 4th & 5 at PSU 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:44MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−2.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:28PSU 4th & 9 at MINN 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−11.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:28MINN 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:29PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:54MINN 4th & 10 at PSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−9.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−37.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:06MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:54PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:27PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:29MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
59.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
59.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
59.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+50
59.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 50 yds , John Reid returns for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
59.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
59.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 5 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
59.2%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+9
59.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 9 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean Hamilton, broken up by Antoine Winfield Jr.Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+15
59.0%
Gillikin, Blake punt 34 yards to the MINN41, fair catch by Myrick, Jalen, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Rallis, Nick) 15 yards to the PSU40, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
59.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre Thompkins, broken up by Antonio ShenaultSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+4
59.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
59.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
59.1%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
59.0%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
59.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 17 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
58.6%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
58.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
59.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
59.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 33 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 1:4559% → 59%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
59.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+7
59.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+5
59.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
59.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 23 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
60.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
59.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+3
59.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+5
59.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 5 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon Barkley, broken up by Damarius TravisSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
60.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+8
59.6%
Trace McSorley run for 8 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
59.4%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:0841% → 44%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
58.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 25 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
57.7%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
57.7%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
57.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
57.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 15 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
57.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 13 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
57.2%
Brooks, Shannon rush for 5 yards to the PSU3 (Bowen, Manny;Smith, Brandon), PENALTY MINN holding (Wright, G) 10 yards to the PSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+1
57.3%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
57.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-2
58.3%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
56.3%
Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:4957% → 60%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+53
56.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 53 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
58.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
58.8%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Minn 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
58.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jonathan Celestin) to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
58.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
58.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.0%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
59.9%
Tyler Davis 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
57.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 16 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
57.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 15 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
55.7%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
55.7%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+4
56.1%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
56.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
57.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
59.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
59.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
59.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Andre Robinson for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+5
58.5%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+13
58.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 38 yds , Jalen Myrick returns for 13 yds to the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:4145% → 61%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
54.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+14
53.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 14 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
53.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
53.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 7 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
53.0%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
54.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
52.1%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Smith, Brian (Haley, Grant), PENALTY PSU pass interference (Haley, Grant) 15 yards to the PSU14, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
52.1%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
52.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 5 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
39.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:3844% → 43%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.9%
Trace McSorley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
45.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
47.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
47.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-8
47.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 18
OWN 43
0
43.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 18
OWN 43
0
42.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Myrick at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 1:1258% → 66%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
42.1%
Smith, Rodney rush for 6 yards to the MINN19 (Haley, Grant), PENALTY MINN holding (Wozniak, Nate) 6 yards to the MINN7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+25
42.4%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
40.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 4 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
40.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+8
39.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 8 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
38.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 19 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
37.7%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
37.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
37.7%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+35
33.6%
Emmit Carpenter 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
38.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
37.4%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+33
37.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 38 yds, downed at the PENNST 30 PENN ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
37.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 2 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
37.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
37.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
36.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
36.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
37.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
38.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5235% → 49%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
34.8%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
34.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Irvin CharlesSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+80
48.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Irvin Charles for 80 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
48.4%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-2
48.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
50.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian Smith, broken up by Jordan SmithSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+22
51.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PENNST 43 MINNESOTA Penalty, kick catching interference (Duke McGhee) to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:5755% → 60%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+36
54.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 36 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
56.1%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Andre RobinsonSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
54.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
60.1%
Tyler Davis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
56.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, roughing passer (Curtis Cothran) to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
52.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
51.7%
Kobe McCrary run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-1
51.8%
Kobe McCrary run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 3
50
+3
53.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 38 yds , John Reid returns for 3 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:0658% → 82%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
57.8%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 15Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+15
57.6%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Charles, Irvin (Shenault, A), PENALTY MINN pass interference (Shenault, A) 15 yards to the PSU30, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
58.5%
Trace McSorley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+53
59.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 53 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
63.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.6%
Trace McSorley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:5826% → 51%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
73.9%
MINNESOTA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaylen Waters) to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
74.1%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
74.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 8 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+2
74.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
73.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 20 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
72.1%
Rodney Smith run for 14 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
72.5%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-1
71.9%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+37
48.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 37 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
58.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+7
57.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 7 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
58.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 5 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
59.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22INT
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:0048% → 51%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
52.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+2
49.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Colton Beebe for 2 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
49.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+16
48.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 16 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
48.0%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+17
46.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 17 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
46.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Colton BeebeSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
46.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the PnSt 12Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
48.6%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
57.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
56.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+32
54.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 32 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
62.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
58.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre Thompkins PENN ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
56.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 4:4049% → 90%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
50.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 16 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
47.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
46.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
44.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Colton Beebe for 8 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
42.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+16
43.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 16 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
40.6%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Robert Windsor and Kevin Givens for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+15
43.3%
Smith, Rodney rush for loss of 7 yards to the PSU41 (Givens, Kevin), PENALTY PSU face mask (Allen, Marcus) 15 yards to the PSU19, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
39.9%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+3
38.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-2
38.4%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
10.3%
Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 0:5219% → 66%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
18.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
17.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 20 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
21.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 7 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
29.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+26
22.4%
Trace McSorley run for 26 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
34.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+40
66.4%
Tyler Davis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0060% → 71%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.5%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-4
40.5%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Evan Schwan for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
46.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
29.5%
Emmit Carpenter 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
84.6%
Saquon Barkley 25 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Saquon Barkley 25 Yd Run
+55.1
FG · Q4 0:02
Tyler Davis 40 yd FG GOOD
+44.7
FG · Q4 0:54
Emmit Carpenter 37 yd FG GOOD
-34.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com