Try the model
ILL

Illinois 16 at Nebraska 31

NEB
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5NEB 86.3%Drew Brown 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q2 5:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:59 · Drew Brown 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior+30.4Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:11: Kendrick Foster run for 31 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +4.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:01: Chase McLaughlin 24 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +4.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:40: Chase McLaughlin 33 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +7.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:58: Terrell Newby run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +25.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:32: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Trey Foster for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +19.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 4:49ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:08NEB 4th & 15 at ILL 39, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    88.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:59NEB 4th & 3 at ILL 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:01ILL 4th & 6 at NEB 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:44ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:40ILL 4th & 10 at NEB 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−10.3
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:23NEB 4th & 1 at ILL 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−5.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−20.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:21ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:57ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:14ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:23NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:11ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:58NEB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:32NEB Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:03NEB Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0693% → 92%
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.9%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
92.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 10 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
92.8%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
92.6%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
92.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
92.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
92.3%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+18
92.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 18 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Bryan ReimersSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
92.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 13 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
91.9%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+13
91.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 13 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (James Crawford) to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:038% → 8%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
91.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gabe Megginson) to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
91.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 12 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
91.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (Joshua Kalu) to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
91.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
91.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-9
91.2%
Wes Lunt sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
91.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 42 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 5:3192% → 90%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
91.5%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
91.4%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
91.2%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
91.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 18Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+37
91.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 37 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
91.3%
Brandon Reilly run for 11 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
91.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
91.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-5
91.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-15
90.9%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jordan Westerkamp) to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 25
OPP 49
+10
90.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 10 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 15
OPP 39
+56
90.1%
Drew Brown 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:5010% → 16%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
89.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+11
89.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 11 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
89.0%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+11
89.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 11 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
88.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
88.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
84.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 31 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:4787% → 86%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
87.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
86.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
86.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 21 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
86.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
86.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 13 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
86.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
86.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 7 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
85.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
86.3%
Drew Brown 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:5214% → 22%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 10 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
84.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 13 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
83.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+26
83.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Nathan Echard for 26 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
82.2%
Nathan Echard run for 1 yd to the Neb 17Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+13
81.7%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Neb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
81.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
80.5%
Nathan Echard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 10Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
80.4%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
81.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 4 yds to the Neb 6Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
78.1%
Chase McLaughlin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7INT
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:1982% → 84%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
81.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 28 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
83.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Darius Mosely return for 24 yds to the Neb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:2024% → 28%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
76.4%
Wes Lunt run for 14 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
75.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 7 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+43
72.4%
Chase McLaughlin 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0624% → 23%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
75.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-8
76.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Dionte Taylor) to the Illin 8Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+4
76.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
76.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+27
76.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 44 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 27 yds to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5579% → 77%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
79.0%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
78.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+12
77.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 12 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
77.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+3
77.2%
Mikale Wilbon run for 3 yds to the Illin 12 Mikale Wilbon fumbled, recovered by IllinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11FG
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:3727% → 40%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+25
73.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 25 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+17
70.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 17 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
67.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 31 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
65.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the Neb 13Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
64.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
65.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Nathan EchardSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 5
OPP 9
-5
67.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 14Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+33
60.0%
Chase McLaughlin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 10:2464% → 78%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
63.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
61.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 6 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
62.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+10
64.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 10 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
62.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+15
58.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Chunky Clements) to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
63.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
62.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 5 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-1
59.6%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+5
56.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Darius Mosely) to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
61.1%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-2
60.1%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+8
57.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
59.1%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
58.5%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
55.3%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
52.1%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.9%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1229% → 27%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
68.9%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
70.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
73.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 42 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 13 yds to the Neb 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:2774% → 95%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
73.8%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
74.4%
Terrell Newby run for 7 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
75.0%
Terrell Newby run for 7 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
74.9%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
74.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
75.6%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
75.4%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+21
73.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 21 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
74.8%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
74.6%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Trey Foster for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:239% → 9%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.0%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
90.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
89.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
90.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 38 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 2 yds to the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:1995% → 98%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
95.3%
Terrell Newby run for 7 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+63
97.9%
Terrell Newby run for 63 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:373% → 3%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
97.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 4 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dominic ThiemanSimilar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
97.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for no gain to the Illin 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
98.4%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:58
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+25.8
TD · Q4 4:32
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Trey Foster for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+19.9
FG · Q3 7:40
Chase McLaughlin 33 yd FG GOOD
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com