Try the model
WIS

Wisconsin 7 at Michigan 14

MICH
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:06 · Kenny Allen punt for 55 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 7 yds to the Wisc 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+25.4Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.2Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:22: Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Mich 30 — WIS win probability +6.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:03: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +15.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. MISSED FG · Q3 2:25: Ryan Tice 40 yd FG MISSED — WIS win probability +5.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: 4th down).
  4. TD · Q4 7:56: Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — MICH win probability +28.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:19: De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Wisc 45 — MICH win probability +7.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 9:43WIS 4th & 11 at MICH 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:06MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:37WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:54WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:47MICH 4th & 8 at WIS 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:12WIS 4th & 18 at WIS 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49MICH 4th & 8 at WIS 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:06WIS 4th & 23 at WIS 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:13MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00MICH 4th & 8 at WIS 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:25MICH 4th & 15 at WIS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−3.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−10.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:25WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:48MICH 4th & 26 at MICH 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−6.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54WIS 4th & 10 at MICH 35, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:14MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:49WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−8.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:01WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 32, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:05MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:59MICH 4th & 6 at WIS 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:15WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:56MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:03WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:56MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:0821% → 22%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.9%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
78.8%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+24
78.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 24 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
78.3%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
78.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 6 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
77.9%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
77.7%
Austin Ramesh run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-5
77.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Maxwell) to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+2
77.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
77.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to George Rushing, broken up by Channing StriblingSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
77.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 27 yds, downed at the Mich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2878% → 77%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
77.5%
Wilton Speight run for 2 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+23
77.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 23 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
77.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
77.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
77.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by D'Cota DixonSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+7
76.8%
Kenny Allen punt for 55 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 7 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:2123% → 24%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+19
76.7%
Corey Clement run for 19 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
76.4%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
76.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
76.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:3276% → 80%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
76.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+22
76.0%
Chris Evans run for 22 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
76.6%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
76.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 12 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
76.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chris Evans for 9 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
76.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by Leo MussoSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
76.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 11 yds to the Wisc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
76.3%
Jehu Chesson run for 8 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+5
76.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.6%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4922% → 21%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
78.2%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
78.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
78.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+6
78.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 39 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:0479% → 79%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
79.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by Chikwe ObasihSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+20
79.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 20 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
79.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
79.7%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
79.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
79.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
79.3%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
79.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
79.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 13Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
79.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant Perry, broken up by Lubern FigaroSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
78.7%
Kenny Allen 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2822% → 20%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
78.2%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 20Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-8
78.8%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Ryan Glasgow and Taco Charlton for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 12Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+13
79.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 40 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 13 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1280% → 79%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
80.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
80.5%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
80.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
80.0%
Kekoa Crawford run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
79.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
79.4%
Kenny Allen 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3622% → 21%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
77.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 20 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
76.0%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
76.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Corey ClementSimilar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-13
77.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Wisc 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Wisc Alex HornibrookSimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 23
OWN 39
0
79.2%
P.J. Rosowski punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4982% → 80%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
81.5%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
81.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-5
80.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 11
OWN 30
-5
80.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
80.2%
Kenny Allen punt for 56 yds, downed at the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:0422% → 22%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
77.9%
Jazz Peavy run for 17 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
77.2%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
77.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy, broken up by Ryan GlasgowSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
77.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Channing Stribling return for 5 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5082% → 79%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
81.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 4 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-2
81.6%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jack Cichy and Chikwe Obasih for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
80.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu Chesson, broken up by Sojourn SheltonSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
78.9%
Kenny Allen punt for 28 yds, downed at the Wisc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 11 yds · 4:2679% → 82%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
79.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 6 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
80.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-2
80.3%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 5 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 41
-5
78.3%
Allen, Kenny punt 52 yards to the WISCONSIN7, fair catch by Peavy, Jazz, PENALTY MICHIGAN illegal motion 5 yards to the MICHIGAN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+15
78.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (Garrett Rand) to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.3%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+24
81.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 24 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
81.8%
Shane Morris run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Juwann Bushell-Beatty) to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 18
OPP 33
+46
81.6%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted Derrick Tindal return for 46 yds to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:1925% → 41%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
74.7%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+6
74.7%
Jazz Peavy run for 6 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
75.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 5 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
74.1%
Austin Ramesh run for 2 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
58.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:1667% → 63%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
66.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 5 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+13
66.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 13 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
67.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 16 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Olive Sagapolu) to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
70.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
70.2%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+8
69.6%
Ty Isaac run for 8 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
70.6%
Ty Isaac run for 10 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
70.5%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-1
70.4%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 13Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-9
68.7%
Wilton Speight sacked by Alec James for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 22Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+40
63.0%
Ryan Tice 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5439% → 37%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
60.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
61.0%
Corey Clement run for 7 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
60.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Alec IngoldSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
62.6%
P.J. Rosowski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:3165% → 60%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
64.7%
Evans, Chris rush for 13 yards to the MICHIGAN48, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Braden, Ben) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+5
63.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
63.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
-11
61.3%
Wilton Speight sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 26
OWN 19
+12
60.4%
Kenny Allen punt for 54 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 12 yds to the Wisc 39 MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4145% → 41%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
55.2%
Corey Clement run for 16 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
52.9%
Alex Hornibrook run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+3
55.6%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
55.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
59.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3662% → 60%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
61.9%
Ty Isaac run for 13 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
62.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
62.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Henry Poggi for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
61.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by D'Cota DixonSimilar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
59.6%
Kenny Allen punt for 47 yds, downed at the Wisc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1943% → 39%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.5%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy, broken up by Channing StriblingSimilar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
58.7%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
60.9%
P.J. Rosowski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3963% → 90%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.8%
Jehu Chesson run for no gain to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
61.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 3 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+15
60.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 15 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
89.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4916% → 13%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.6%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.9%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
85.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
86.7%
P.J. Rosowski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:5190% → 91%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.9%
Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.3%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-10
90.2%
Wilton Speight sacked by Garret Dooley for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+2
90.8%
Kenny Allen punt for 53 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3413% → 14%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
86.6%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
86.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Channing Stribling return for 4 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2094% → 94%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.7%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
94.9%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+1
95.0%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
94.4%
Kenny Allen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:316% → 6%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
93.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for no gain to the Wisc 8Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
93.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
93.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli, broken up by Ben GedeonSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
93.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Jourdan Lewis return for no gain to the Wisc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0296% → 97%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
95.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
96.4%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
97.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:56
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+28.8
TD · Q3 8:03
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)
-15.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:19
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Wisc 45
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com