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NU

Northwestern 38 at Iowa 31

IOWA
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:19 · Hunter Niswander punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+1.3Home team on offense−28.6Garbage-time factor−13.6Score differential−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:02: Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 6:15: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +15.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:07: Justin Jackson run for 58 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +24.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:06: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 25 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +21.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:10: LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD NORTHWESTERN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +16.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 17 at IOWA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:20IOWA 4th & 8 at NU 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08NU 4th & 9 at NU 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:07NU 4th & 3 at IOWA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:50NU 4th & 2 at IOWA 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00IOWA 4th & 21 at IOWA 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:33IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:32NU 4th & 14 at NU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:29NU 4th & 5 at NU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:44IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:19NU 4th & 1 at NU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 13 at NU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:29IOWA 4th & 3 at NU 6, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−6.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:29NU 4th & 1 at NU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.8%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:15IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:07IOWA 4th & 10 at NU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:10NU 4th & 3 at NU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:52IOWA 4th & 17 at IOWA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−3.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:19NU 4th & 4 at NU 26, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:20NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:07IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:33NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:02IOWA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:51IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:15NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:07NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:06NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:10IOWA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
80.2%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
80.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 5 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
80.2%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Joseph Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+47
80.2%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 34 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 47 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3621% → 21%
Q1 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
79.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 4Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
78.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
78.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 7 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
78.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
78.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+12
78.8%
C.J. Beathard run for 12 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic Smith, broken up by Joe GazianoSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
79.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 8 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
79.1%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.1%
Akrum Wadley run for no gain to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-8
79.1%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Xavier Washington for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 18
OPP 45
+10
78.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for 10 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
78.9%
C.J. Beathard punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
75.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 2Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
75.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
75.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+32
75.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds , Desmond King returns for 32 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.4%
Akrum Wadley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:1723% → 26%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
77.3%
Justin Jackson run for 35 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
76.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
76.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Ben NiemannSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
76.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+4
76.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+7
76.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 7 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
76.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 5 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
76.3%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Iowa 7Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-1
76.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 8Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
74.2%
Jack Mitchell 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 0:5075% → 73%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
74.7%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 9 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-15
75.5%
Daniels, LeShun rush up middle for 3 yards to the IOWA40 (Walker, Jr. A.;Prater, Jaylen), PENALTY IOWA face mask 15 yards to the IOWA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 22
-5
74.0%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 17
0
74.0%
C.J. Beathard run for no gain to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 17
0
73.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
73.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:3528% → 35%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
72.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 18 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
72.3%
Solomon Vault run for 3 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
71.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
72.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
71.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 8 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
71.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
71.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
71.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
64.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to George KittleSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
64.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to George KittleSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
63.5%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.9%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+15
65.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 15 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
64.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
64.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-8
64.2%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Parker Hesse and Josey Jewell for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 14
OWN 40
+32
65.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Desmond King returns for 32 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0562% → 72%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
61.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 5
50
+6
62.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
62.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 10 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
63.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
63.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+22
62.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jay Scheel for 22 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
71.5%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.4%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
66.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35 Justin Jackson fumbled, forced by Brandon Snyder, recovered by Iowa Matt NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:3371% → 77%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
71.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 20 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
71.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-4
71.3%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 15 Akrum Wadley fumbled, forced by C.J. Robbins, recovered by Iowa Akrum Wadley IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
77.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 15 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2224% → 21%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.8%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
75.7%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
79.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Desmond King returns for 6 yds to the Iowa 36 IOWA Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3477% → 75%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
76.9%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
76.8%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jay Scheel, broken up by Joseph JonesSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-2
76.3%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
75.1%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1721% → 22%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
78.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
78.9%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
77.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+7
78.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 43 yds , Desmond King returns for 7 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
76.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew Scanlan, broken up by Desmond KingSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
75.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Tommy Doles) to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
75.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Joshua JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+38
76.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds , Riley McCarron returns for 38 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4678% → 80%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
77.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Ronald Nash for 8 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+7
77.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
77.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
77.6%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+1
76.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 1 yd to the Nwest 6Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
80.3%
Keith Duncan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1421% → 40%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.1%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
79.2%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
77.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
78.3%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
77.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
78.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.7%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
76.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 15 yds to the Iowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
75.5%
[SG], Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Skowronek, Ben, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Snyder, Brandon) 15 yards to the IOWA18, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
75.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for no gain to the Iowa 18Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
75.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
60.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 16 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 65%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
68.2%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+5
67.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 5 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
67.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 7 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-7
69.1%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
65.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:0538% → 63%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
62.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
62.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
61.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 5 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
61.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 6 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+58
36.6%
Justin Jackson run for 58 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 43%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
48.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Ronald NashSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
48.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-4
48.0%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
43.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:1167% → 89%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+17
32.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
32.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
32.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
33.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
32.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 8 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
31.9%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
10.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 25 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5617% → 38%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
18.2%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
18.2%
C.J. Beathard run for 2 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
18.3%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
18.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+11
18.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 11 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+46
20.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 46 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
21.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.0%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD NORTHWESTERN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
23.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
24.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett Dickerson, broken up by Josey JewellSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
25.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 23%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
26.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
26.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 6 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
27.0%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
26.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 9 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
29.4%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+5
27.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to LeShun Daniels Jr. for 5 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-11
28.1%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 11 yards to the Iowa 35 C.J. Beathard fumbled, recovered by Iowa Cole Croston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
23.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1689% → 88%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
11.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
11.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
10.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
12.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0614% → 14%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
13.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for no gain to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
13.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 18 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
15.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jay Scheel for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
17.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic SmithSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
13.6%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted Trae Williams return for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-1
5.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:07
Justin Jackson run for 58 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-24.5
TD · Q4 12:06
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 25 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-21
TD · Q4 8:10
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD NORTHWESTERN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Keith Duncan KICK)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com