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MSU

Michigan State 21 at Indiana 24

IU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:22 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 153Pregame prior−2.2Home team on offense−3.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Time remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:52: Richard Lagow 5 Yd pass from Mitchell Paige (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +15.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:23: Ricky Jones 22 Yd pass from Richard Lagow (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +32.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:38: Mitchell Paige 15 Yd pass from Richard Lagow (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +28.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:11: Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +40.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Griffin Oakes 20 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +17.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:07MSU 4th & 2 at IU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06MSU 4th & 5 at IU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21IU 4th & 1 at IU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25IU 4th & 18 at IU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:43IU 4th & 28 at IU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:39MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:46IU 4th & 7 at MSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:18IU 4th & 2 at MSU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−12.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:30MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−3.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:42IU 4th & 2 at MSU 23, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%−1.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:45MSU 4th & 8 at IU 32, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:26MSU 4th & 13 at IU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:22MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−1.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:11MSU 4th & 2 at IU 2, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−17.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:39MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:00MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:52IU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:23IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:38IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−1.8
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:11MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1MISSED FG
18 plays · 52 yds · 6:3670% → 67%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
30.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
31.0%
Tyler O'Connor run for 9 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
31.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
31.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-5
31.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+15
31.4%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
31.3%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
31.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
31.8%
Tyler O'Connor run for 1 yd to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+6
32.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 6 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
31.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
32.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 5 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
32.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
33.0%
Michael Geiger 40 yd FG BLOCKED by Patrick Dougherty, Indiana ball at the Ind 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3433% → 35%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
33.4%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 23Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
33.4%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
33.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
33.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 7 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
34.3%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 37Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
34.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
34.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
35.0%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 87 yds · 0:2165% → 69%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
34.6%
Tyler O'Connor run for 1 yd to the MchSt 14 Tyler O'Connor fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+86
31.3%
R.J. Shelton 86 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 4 yds · 3:0732% → 30%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
31.5%
INDIANA Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (-5 Yards) to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
31.4%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+12
31.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 12 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
32.2%
Devine Redding run for 5 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
31.5%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+2
30.6%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 18
OWN 37
0
30.7%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Mike MajetteSimilar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
30.3%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
30.1%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1470% → 68%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
30.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
30.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+2
31.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
31.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
31.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ind 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3731% → 30%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
31.0%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 10 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
31.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 22 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
33.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 20
OPP 43
0
31.8%
Tyler Natee run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+2
31.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 18
OPP 41
-10
31.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 28
OWN 49
0
30.8%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 28
OWN 49
+1
30.4%
Joseph Gedeon punt for 42 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:2369% → 72%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+24
31.3%
Madre London run for 24 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
30.5%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
29.9%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
29.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 4 yds to the MchSt 49 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 16
OWN 39
+5
30.6%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 11
OWN 44
+11
29.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
29.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+10
30.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 10 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
28.1%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-7
28.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ind Nile SykesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:4432% → 33%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
31.7%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+14
31.8%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 14 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
32.3%
Devine Redding run for 9 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
33.3%
Richard Lagow pass intercepted, touchback. Vayante Copeland return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1670% → 69%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
30.2%
Madre London run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+13
31.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 13 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
29.3%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
29.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+24
31.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:3432% → 31%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
31.6%
Devine Redding run for 9 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
32.7%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+11
32.2%
Tyler Natee run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
32.5%
Tyler Natee run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
32.1%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+4
31.5%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
31.3%
Griffin Oakes 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:3773% → 71%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
27.1%
Tyler O'Connor run for 9 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
27.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+9
27.5%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
25.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
27.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+5
28.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
28.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+8
28.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 8 yds to the Ind 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2930% → 31%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
30.3%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Devine ReddingSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
30.1%
Devine Redding run for 7 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+11
31.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
32.9%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 22 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
34.4%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
34.3%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+19
32.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 19 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
34.1%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
34.1%
Richard Lagow pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
32.6%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q3 11:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
31.1%
Tyler Natee pass incomplete to Ian ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3171% → 69%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
28.7%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
29.0%
Madre London run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
29.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+31
30.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 59 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for 31 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2235% → 31%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
34.6%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
34.6%
Mike Majette run for no gain to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+6
32.9%
Mike Majette run for 6 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
31.4%
Griffin Oakes 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:0073% → 89%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
27.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 8 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
25.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 9 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
24.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 12 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
24.1%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
23.6%
Tyler O'Connor run for 7 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
23.6%
LJ Scott run for 13 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
11.2%
Delton Williams 24 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3914% → 32%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
14.2%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Ricky Jones for 57 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
17.0%
Devonte Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+6
16.9%
Devonte Williams run for 6 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
15.8%
Devonte Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
16.2%
Devonte Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
16.0%
Devonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.6%
Richard Lagow 5 Yd pass from Mitchell Paige (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:0876% → 78%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
24.5%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-5
24.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+8
24.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 8 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+18
22.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 18 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
19.5%
Tyler O'Connor run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+22
19.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 22 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
17.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
17.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
18.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-5
20.5%
Tyler O'Connor run for 5 yds to the Ind 27 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 37Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
21.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:3624% → 60%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
23.6%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Ind 11Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
23.4%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 8 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+6
21.1%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Devine Redding for 6 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
22.5%
Richard Lagow pass complete to Luke Timian for 40 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
29.6%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
29.6%
Tyler Natee run for 6 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+4
27.6%
Tyler Natee run for 4 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
60.1%
Ricky Jones 22 Yd pass from Richard Lagow (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4653% → 52%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
44.3%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
45.0%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
48.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:2254% → 88%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+44
53.7%
Devine Redding run for 44 yds to the MchSt 26 Devine Redding fumbled, recovered by IndSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
61.6%
Tyler Natee run for 9 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+2
61.9%
Tyler Natee run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
62.0%
Richard Lagow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.2%
Mitchell Paige 15 Yd pass from Richard Lagow (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
88.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line. Malik McDowell ejected for Targeting.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 3:4915% → 56%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
85.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 16 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
82.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+18
82.0%
R.J. Shelton run for 18 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
79.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
80.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 5 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+5
79.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
77.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 9 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+9
77.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 9 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
77.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the Ind 5Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
81.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
85.0%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 2Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
58.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23MISSED FG
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0060% → 45%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the Ind 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-3
40.5%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Patrick Dougherty for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 26Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-6
43.7%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Nate Hoff for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 32Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+49
55.3%
Michael Geiger 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Devine Redding run for 4 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
64.7%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
62.3%
Tyler Natee run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+8
59.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
64.7%
Tyler Natee run for 3 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
64.7%
Tyler Natee run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
82.1%
Griffin Oakes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:11
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-40.8
TD · Q4 8:23
Ricky Jones 22 Yd pass from Richard Lagow (Griffin Oakes Kick)
+32.5
TD · Q4 4:38
Mitchell Paige 15 Yd pass from Richard Lagow (Griffin Oakes Kick)
+28.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com