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NEB

Nebraska 24 at Northwestern 13

NU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, downed at the Neb 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior−21.7Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:09: Clayton Thorson run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +7.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:41: Terrell Newby run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +14.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:00: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +9.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:29: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell PAT MISSED) — NU win probability +16.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q3 3:06: Jordan Westerkamp run for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +12.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 2 at NU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:28NEB 4th & 22 at NEB 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27NU 4th & 2 at NEB 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:40NEB 4th & 6 at NU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:40NU 4th & 5 at NEB 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:22NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:09NEB 4th & 7 at NU 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:59NU 4th & 10 at NU 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:24NU 4th & 9 at NU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:19NU 4th & 7 at NEB 23, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−5.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:12NU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NEB 4th & 7 at NU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:08NU 4th & 7 at NU 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:33NEB 4th & 18 at NU 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:54NU 4th & 6 at NEB 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 9:09NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:41NEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:00NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:29NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:06NEB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+17
28.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+49
28.3%
Terrell Newby run for 49 yds Terrell Newby fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
28.3%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+12
28.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 12 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
28.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
28.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
28.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
28.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, downed at the Neb 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
28.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
29.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
29.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
29.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
30.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
29.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-11
29.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 22
OWN 20
0
30.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 22
OWN 20
0
30.1%
Caleb Lighbourn punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:1332% → 34%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
31.8%
John Moten IV run for 11 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
32.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 11 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
32.3%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
32.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
32.5%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
32.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
32.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to John Moten IV for 9 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-1
32.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 10Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
32.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Nathan GerrySimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
33.5%
Jack Mitchell 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:4767% → 67%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
32.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
33.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 8 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
32.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+12
32.7%
Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Moore, Alonzo (Igwebuike, G.), QB hurry by Hall, Nate, PENALTY NU pass interference (Igwebuike, G.) 12 yards to the NEB46, 1ST DOWN NEB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
32.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 7 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-1
31.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+14
32.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 14 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
31.7%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+27
32.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 27 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
32.6%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
32.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
33.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 13:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
32.9%
Drew Brown 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
33.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
34.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
35.1%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
35.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 11
50
+10
34.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 10 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-10
35.4%
Jackson, Justin rush for no gain to the NEB40 (Banderas, Josh), PENALTY NU holding (Mahoney, Connor) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 11
50
+6
34.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
34.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
34.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
34.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for no gain to the Neb 12Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
35.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon Reilly, broken up by Alex MillerSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+5
35.8%
Caleb Lighbourn punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 42 , Flynn Nagel returns for 5 yds to the Neb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
42.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
40.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 20 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
38.7%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
38.7%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
38.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
38.2%
Mikale Wilbon run for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
38.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
38.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
39.7%
Caleb Lighbourn punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
43.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+2
43.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
42.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Nathan Gerry NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
41.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:0059% → 61%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
50
+11
41.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 11 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
41.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 37 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+1
39.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd Devine Ozigbo fumbled, forced by Godwin Igwebuike, recovered by Nwest Joseph JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett Dickerson, broken up by Dedrick Young IISimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
45.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
44.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
43.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:4255% → 69%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+59
44.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 59 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.9%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 1:1536% → 37%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
35.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
36.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 8 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+32
38.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 17 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 41 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Aaron Williams) to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
40.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Kevin Maurice for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 16
OPP 32
-6
37.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Kevin Maurice for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 38Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 22
OPP 38
+15
35.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 15 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+2
36.9%
Jack Mitchell pass complete to Matt Micucci for 2 yds to the Neb 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
36.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16INT
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0038% → 41%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
37.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
38.1%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Carr, Austin, PENALTY NEB personal foul (Akinmoladun, F.) 15 yards to the NEB47, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
40.2%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
40.3%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
41.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
41.4%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted, touchback. Aaron Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5264% → 77%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
35.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 17 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
34.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 6 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
33.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
34.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 12 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
33.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
33.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+39
33.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 35 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul (Jared McGee) to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
32.0%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Nwest 4Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
32.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:2425% → 42%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
25.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 15 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
25.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
25.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+8
25.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 8 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
41.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:1766% → 83%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
33.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 13 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
33.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+7
31.6%
Mikale Wilbon run for 7 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
31.4%
Mikale Wilbon run for 12 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
31.0%
Mikale Wilbon run for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
31.1%
Cethan Carter run for 16 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
29.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+9
29.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 9 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
16.9%
Jordan Westerkamp run for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 2:5419% → 19%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.3%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
20.0%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.3%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
20.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
20.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
21.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 8
50
0
21.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 8
50
0
19.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon Vault, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 8
50
0
19.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0384% → 84%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
15.6%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
16.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 12 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
15.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
15.1%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+10
14.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
14.0%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-2
14.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
14.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan Carter, broken up by Anthony Walker Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
15.7%
Caleb Lighbourn punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Aaron WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
15.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+13
15.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 13 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
16.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 8 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
18.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 1 yd to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-10
17.7%
Jackson, Justin rush for 14 yards to the NEB40 (Young II, D.), PENALTY NU holding 10 yards to the NU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+4
15.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
15.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 48 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
8.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 12 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
8.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 25Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
8.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 10 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
8.5%
Mikale Wilbon run for 32 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
7.5%
Mikale Wilbon run for 1 yd to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
7.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-15
7.8%
Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Wilbon, Mikale for 13 yards to the NU19, out-of-bounds (Washington, X.), PENALTY NEB personal foul (Newby, Terrell) 15 yards to the NU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 24
OPP 47
+6
8.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 6 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
8.6%
Caleb Lighbourn punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24INT
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:008% → 10%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
8.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
8.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 5 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
8.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
8.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+23
8.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 23 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
10.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 14 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
12.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 7 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
13.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-3
11.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Mick Stoltenberg and Nathan Gerry for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
9.5%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Joshua Kalu return for no gain to the Neb 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:4997% → 98%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
3.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+15
2.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 15 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
2.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:29
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell PAT MISSED)
+16.3
TD · Q2 1:41
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-14
TD · Q3 3:06
Jordan Westerkamp run for 10 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com