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WIS

Wisconsin 30 at Michigan State 6

MSU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFUMBLEFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:23 · Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−0.1Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+11.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:25: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Eric Steffes for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +3.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:14: Corey Clement run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott PAT MISSED) — WIS win probability +6.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Kevin Cronin kickoff for 63 yds , Dare Ogunbowale return for 19 yds to the MICHIGANST 46 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Titus Booker) to the Wisc 11 — MSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 13:10: LJ Scott run for 9 yds LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Jack Cichy, recovered by Wisc Leo Musso , return for 66 yds, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +14.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:52: Corey Clement run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +13.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 12:40MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03MSU 4th & 6 at WIS 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38WIS 4th & 1 at MSU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:23WIS 4th & 1 at MSU 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:42MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:14WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 28, up 4
    Close callPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:18MSU 4th & 11 at WIS 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:04WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:38MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:58WIS 4th & 3 at MSU 23, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%−0.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:58MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 21, down 17
    Numbers favored punt by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%−3.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:46WIS 4th & 6 at MSU 35, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:37WIS 4th & 5 at MSU 49, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:24WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 26, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:25WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:14WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:52WIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1565% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
65.2%
LJ Scott run for 19 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
65.2%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
65.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+3
65.0%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 9
OWN 37
-5
64.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
64.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:5235% → 36%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
65.0%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 17Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-2
65.0%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+19
65.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 19 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
64.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 17 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.3%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-4
64.2%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 47 Alex Hornibrook fumbled, forced by Raequan Williams, recovered by MchSt Kevin WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3165% → 66%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
65.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (David Beedle) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
65.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
65.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+17
64.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 17 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
65.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 4 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
65.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
65.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
65.5%
Michael Geiger 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4TD
17 plays · 65 yds · 7:3035% → 41%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
65.4%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-3
65.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Corey Clement for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+25
65.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 25 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
64.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
64.5%
Alex Hornibrook run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+6
65.0%
Alec Ingold run for 6 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.0%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
64.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 8 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
64.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 5 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
63.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
63.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+9
64.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 9 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
64.4%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.2%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Eric Steffes for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1861% → 61%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.1%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
62.1%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
61.6%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
60.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2140% → 40%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
59.9%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
59.3%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
59.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
60.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 47 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1460% → 59%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.8%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.5%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
58.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Sojourn Shelton return for 8 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1644% → 52%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
56.1%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
56.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+23
57.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 23 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
55.6%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
54.3%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.0%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 5:4448% → 47%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
48.3%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
47.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+7
48.3%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
47.3%
Donnie Corley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+13
46.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 13 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
47.4%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+15
46.7%
Tyler O'Connor run for 15 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
47.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
47.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+8
46.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 8 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
47.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Prescott LineSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
47.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
44.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
47.1%
Michael Geiger 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10INT
12 plays · 45 yds · 1:0555% → 60%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
45.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 16 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
43.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
41.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+17
41.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 17 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
40.1%
Alex Hornibrook run for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
40.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Darian Hicks return for 4 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5155% → 53%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
45.5%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 12Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
45.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
46.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
47.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:4250% → 36%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+7
49.8%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+66
35.5%
LJ Scott run for 9 yds LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Jack Cichy, recovered by Wisc Leo Musso , return for 66 yds, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2433% → 29%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.8%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
31.3%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
30.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-1
29.4%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Miguel Machado) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
28.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds, downed at the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:3272% → 84%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
27.9%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Demetrius Cooper and Shane Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 17Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+5
25.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+15
25.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to George Rushing for 15 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
23.6%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
22.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Eric Steffes for 1 yd to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+31
21.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 31 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
19.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
18.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
18.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for no gain to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
16.1%
Andrew Endicott 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:4419% → 18%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
19.1%
Donnie Corley run for no gain to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
18.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty Madaris MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
18.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 10
OWN 21
-16
18.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.1%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:566% → 6%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
6.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
6.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 16 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
6.4%
Madre London run for 6 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+16
5.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 1 yd to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Vince Biegel) to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
5.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
5.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
5.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted T.J. Edwards return for no gain to the Wisc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 50 yds · 5:5696% → 99%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
3.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-7 Yards) to the Wisc 8Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+22
3.4%
Corey Clement run for 22 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
3.3%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+18
3.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
50
+5
2.7%
Austin Ramesh run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
2.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
1.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+5
2.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Grayson Miller) to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
1.7%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-7
1.4%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the MchSt 32 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 13
OPP 42
-2
1.5%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+9
1.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to George Rushing for 9 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
1.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 27 yds, downed at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:262% → 1%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
2.2%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+15
2.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 15 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+27
2.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 27 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
2.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 7 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
2.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 8 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+16
2.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 16 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
2.2%
O'Connor, Tyler pass incomplete to Corley, Donnie, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (Beedle, David) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 25
OPP 38
-9
1.7%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by D'Cota Dixon for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 34
OPP 47
+7
1.4%
Tyler O'Connor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 27
OPP 40
-6
1.3%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 33
OPP 46
0
1.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
0.6%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+5
0.7%
Alec Ingold run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
50
-5
0.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Michael Deiter) to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+6
0.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
0.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 44 yds, downed at the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
0.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 10 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+40
0.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 40 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
0.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Derrick Tindal return for no gain to the Wisc 45 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
0.5%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 19Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+3
0.5%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+4
0.5%
Austin Ramesh run for 4 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+13
0.4%
Anthony Lotti punt for 48 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 13 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
0.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 10 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
0.3%
Lewerke, Brian rush for no gain to the WISCONSIN36, PENALTY MICHIGANST illegal shift 5 yards to the WISCONSIN41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+16
0.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 16 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
0.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 16 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 13:10
LJ Scott run for 9 yds LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Jack Cichy, recovered by Wisc Leo Musso , return for 66 yds, (Andrew Endicott KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 3:52
Corey Clement run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)
-13.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Kevin Cronin kickoff for 63 yds , Dare Ogunbowale return for 19 yds to the MICHIGANST 46 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Titus Booker) to the Wisc 11
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com