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PSU

Penn State 10 at Michigan 49

MICH
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:08 · Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds, downed at the Mich 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+23.4Pregame prior+19.3Score differential+21.3Blowout margin+10.6Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:57: De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +2.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:09: Wilton Speight pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +5.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:46: Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 11:31: Tyler Davis 21 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:22: Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:02PSU 4th & 18 at PSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51MICH 4th & 1 at PSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27PSU 4th & 5 at MICH 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:49PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:15PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:33MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:01PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 45, down 21
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59MICH 4th & 7 at PSU 24, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08PSU 4th & 14 at MICH 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:32MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:31PSU 4th & 2 at MICH 2, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:57MICH 4th & 4 at PSU 28, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:24PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 37, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:09PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:07PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 9:51MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:57MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:09MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:46MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:42MICH Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:22PSU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:11MICH Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:04MICH Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5215% → 15%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
85.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Matthew Godin for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 7Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+1
84.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 1 yd to the PnSt 8Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 11
OWN 8
-7
84.7%
Trace McSorley sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 18
OWN 1
+53
84.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 61 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 53 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:1185% → 85%
Q1 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
84.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
-2
84.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+9
84.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 9 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+15
84.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 15 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
84.5%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 3Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.4%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 2 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.7%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:0316% → 16%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
84.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 17 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
84.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
84.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
84.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
84.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+5
84.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-4
84.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:0385% → 87%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
84.6%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
84.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 5 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
84.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-5
84.6%
Eddie McDoom run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+25
84.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 25 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
84.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Ian BuntingSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
84.6%
Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
84.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 6 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5114% → 14%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
86.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
86.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-9
85.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 15
OWN 19
+1
86.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 46 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 2:2987% → 92%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
86.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 39 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.0%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
87.0%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+6
86.9%
Eddie McDoom run for 6 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.1%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
87.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+4
86.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
87.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:469% → 8%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
91.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
91.4%
Trace McSorley sacked by Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
92.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3793% → 94%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.7%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
92.7%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+16
92.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 16 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.4%
Wilton Speight run for no gain to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
93.5%
Ty Isaac run for 11 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
94.3%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
94.4%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+7
94.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 7 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
93.9%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:267% → 7%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
92.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-3
92.3%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:5895% → 99%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
94.6%
Karan Higdon run for 7 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
94.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.0%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
95.1%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+16
94.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 16 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
95.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 18 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
95.5%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-10
95.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (De'Veon Smith) to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 21
OPP 38
0
95.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 21
OPP 38
+14
95.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chris Evans for 14 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+9
95.4%
Wilton Speight run for 9 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
95.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+9
95.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.7%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:302% → 2%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
98.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 30 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
98.0%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-4
97.8%
Trace McSorley sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds, downed at the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
98.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.9%
Kenny Allen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 1:401% → 3%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+33
99.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 33 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
98.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+19
99.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 19 yds to the Mich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+21
96.8%
Tyler Davis 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:0198% → 99%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
98.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 9 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+4
98.4%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
98.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 9 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+30
98.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 30 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
98.7%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
98.7%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 4
OPP 28
0
98.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for no gain to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:162% → 2%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
98.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
98.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
98.4%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3499% → 100%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+37
98.9%
Chris Evans run for 37 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
99.2%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.2%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
99.3%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+8
99.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
99.3%
Karan Higdon run for 11 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:580% → 1%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.8%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
99.8%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Trace McSorley sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+15
99.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 6 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-3
99.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+12
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 12 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+15
99.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 11 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:49100% → 100%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.6%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
99.6%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
99.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 5 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.7%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
99.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Henry Poggi for 15 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.7%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
99.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+10
99.8%
Ty Isaac run for 10 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 40 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:230% → 0%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
100.0%
Trace McSorley run for 13 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Mark Allen run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Mike McCray return for 22 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+25
100.0%
Ty Isaac run for 25 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
100.0%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Andre Robinson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+24
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for 24 yds to the PnSt 37 Miles Sanders fumbled, recovered by Mich , return for 17 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:09
Wilton Speight pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 0:46
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q1 3:57
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com