Try the model
ILST

Illinois State 9 at Northwestern 7

NU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadILST aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreILST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:00 · Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the IllSt 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior+22.7Home team on offense+2.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:32: George Moreira run for 6 yds for a TD, (Sean Slattery PAT MISSED) — ILST win probability +12.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:43: Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 9 yds to the IllSt 31 — ILST win probability +8.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:08: Jamal Towns run for 1 yd to the IllSt 9 — ILST win probability +6.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:10: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +17.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Sean Slattery 33 yd FG GOOD — ILST win probability +62.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12ILST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:29ILST 4th & 14 at ILST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:42NU 4th & 14 at NU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11ILST 4th & 22 at NU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11NU 4th & 24 at ILST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ILST 4th & 4 at ILST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:39NU 4th & 3 at NU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:00NU 4th & 8 at ILST 30, tied
    Close callWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:49NU 4th & 10 at ILST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:46ILST 4th & 1 at NU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−2.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:54NU 4th & 8 at NU 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:18ILST 4th & 9 at ILST 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:53NU 4th & 3 at ILST 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    57.1%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−8.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:40NU 4th & 4 at ILST 45, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−4.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ILST 4th & 6 at ILST 12, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−2.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54NU 4th & 1 at ILST 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−4.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−19.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:10NU 4th & 5 at ILST 10, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−15.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:04ILST 4th & 7 at ILST 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:07NU 4th & 12 at NU 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−6.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:15ILST 4th & 7 at ILST 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:44NU 4th & 4 at NU 46, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ILST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:32ILST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 9:10NU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:3116% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 9 yds to the IllSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
84.4%
Jamal Towns run for 2 yds to the IllSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
84.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 11 yds to the IllSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
84.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Christian Gibbs for 7 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-3
84.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-8
83.6%
Jake Kolbe sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 8 yards to the IllSt 43Similar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
83.8%
Reece Attard punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
83.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
83.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Dalton KeeneSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-4
83.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 14
OWN 18
0
83.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
83.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds, downed at the IllSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0717% → 18%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
82.9%
KOLBE,Jake pass incomplete to WARRUM,Anthony, PENALTY NU pass interference (Harris, Matthew) 15 yards to the NU45, 1ST DOWN ILS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
82.8%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to George Moreira for 13 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
82.7%
George Moreira run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
82.7%
Jake Kolbe run for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
82.8%
DeMarco Corbin run for 3 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
82.7%
ROBINSON,James rush for 2 yards to the NU18 (Hartage, Montre), PENALTY ILS holding (SPELMAN,Mark) 10 yards to the NU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 20
OPP 30
-3
82.8%
Jake Kolbe sacked by C.J. Robbins for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 23
OPP 33
0
82.8%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to George Moreira, broken up by Fred WyattSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 23
OPP 33
+1
83.0%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 1 yd to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 22
OPP 32
+49
81.9%
Sean Slattery 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
82.0%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
82.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 6 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+15
82.2%
Justin Jackson run for 15 yds to the IllSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
82.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 5 yds to the IllSt 40Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+14
82.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the IllSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-9
82.7%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the IllSt 25 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Eric Olson) to the IllSt 35Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 19
OPP 35
+3
82.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the IllSt 32Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 16
OPP 32
-3
82.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Dalton Keene for a loss of 3 yards to the IllSt 35Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 19
OPP 35
-5
82.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by James Graham for a loss of 5 yards to the IllSt 40Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 24
OPP 40
0
81.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Spencer Schnell at the IllSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0320% → 20%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
80.4%
George Moreira run for 6 yds to the IllSt 13Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+3
80.1%
Jamal Towns run for 3 yds to the IllSt 16Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
80.3%
Jake Kolbe run for 2 yds to the IllSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
80.1%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Christian Gibbs for 10 yds to the IllSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
79.2%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to James Robinson for 4 yds to the IllSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
79.1%
DeMarco Corbin run for 2 yds to the IllSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
79.3%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Spencer SchnellSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 34
-2
79.7%
Reece Attard punt for 56 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
79.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 8Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
79.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 7 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
79.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
78.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 62 yds, downed at the IllSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 7INT
8 plays · 69 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
78.3%
Jamal Towns run for a loss of 4 yards to the IllSt 19 Jamal Towns fumbled, recovered by IllSt Jamal Towns , return for no gain to the IllSt 19Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+36
78.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 36 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
76.9%
George Moreira run for 6 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
76.8%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 7 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
76.5%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 26 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
76.5%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Anthony WarrumSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
76.5%
Jamal Towns run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 8Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.9%
Jake Kolbe pass intercepted, touchback. Montre Hartage return for no gain ILLINOIS ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 2:4378% → 78%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
78.1%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
78.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
78.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
79.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
78.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+12
78.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 12 yds to the IllSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
79.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 14 yds to the IllSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to John Moten IVSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+2
79.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the IllSt 30Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+14
78.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the IllSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
79.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
77.9%
Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 9TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:1725% → 43%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
75.0%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Jamal Towns for 12 yds to the IllSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
74.5%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Jamal Towns for 7 yds to the IllSt 39Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+11
73.2%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Christian Gibbs for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
50
0
72.6%
Jake Kolbe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
50
0
73.1%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to George Moreira for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 10
50
+9
73.8%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 9 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+10
72.1%
DeMarco Corbin run for 10 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
69.4%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 14 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
69.2%
Jake Kolbe run for 4 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
69.2%
George Moreira run for 7 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.9%
George Moreira run for 6 yds for a TD, (Sean Slattery PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
64.1%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Scanlan, Andrew for 20 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (KOCOUR,Alec), PENALTY NU holding (Hance, Blake) 10 yards to the NU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
63.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
63.7%
Jackson, Justin rush for 2 yards to the NU32 (RIVERA,Alejandr), PENALTY NU holding (Olson, Eric) 10 yards to the NU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+16
63.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 16 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
65.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
64.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 7 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
64.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
63.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew Scanlan, broken up by Davontae HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
58.2%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Christian Gibbs for 21 yds to the IllSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
55.5%
George Moreira run for 1 yd to the IllSt 42Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
55.8%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Anthony Warrum, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
56.6%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Spencer Schnell, broken up by Anthony Walker Jr.Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
58.8%
Reece Attard punt for 57 yds, downed at the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 76 yds · 0:0059% → 61%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
58.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 2Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
58.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 3Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
57.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+12
56.5%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Wilson, Macan (NEWBOLD,La'Dari), PENALTY ILS pass interference (NEWBOLD,La'Dari) 12 yards to the NU15, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
59.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
58.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew Scanlan, broken up by DraShane GlassSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+15
57.5%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Skowronek, Ben, PENALTY ILS pass interference (HARRIS,Davontae) 15 yards to the NU30, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ifeadi Odenigbo, broken up by Matt SwaineSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
59.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 7 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+34
60.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 34 yds to the IllSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
64.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+7
62.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 7 yds to the IllSt 22Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 3
OPP 22
0
60.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan Wilson, broken up by Mitchell BreesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 14INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0047% → 49%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
52.7%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 9 yds to the IllSt 31Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
50.7%
George Moreira run for 6 yds to the IllSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
50.7%
Jamal Towns run for 10 yds to the IllSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
49.3%
Jamal Towns run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 7
50
+4
48.9%
George Moreira run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+15
49.4%
KOLBE,Jake pass incomplete to WARRUM,Anthony, PENALTY NU pass interference (Harris, Matthew) 15 yards to the NU31, 1ST DOWN ILS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
48.3%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-5
48.4%
ILLINOIS ST Penalty, false start (Cameron Lee) to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
49.0%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Anthony WarrumSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+10
50.8%
Jake Kolbe pass intercepted Jared McGee return for 25 yds to the Nwest 10 ILLINOIS ST Penalty, illegal block (Reece Attard) to the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
55.0%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the IllSt 43Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-10
55.8%
Jackson, Justin rush for 2 yards to the ILS41, out-of-bounds (BARRY,Brannon), PENALTY NU holding (Mahoney, Connor) 10 yards to the NU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
52.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin Jackson, broken up by Brannon BarrySimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+8
51.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 8 yds to the IllSt 45Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
52.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IllSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0854% → 55%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
46.1%
Jamal Towns run for 1 yd to the IllSt 9Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-3
46.5%
Jake Kolbe sacked by Joseph Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the IllSt 6Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 12
OWN 6
-3
47.6%
ILLINOIS ST Penalty, delay of game (-3 Yards) to the IllSt 3Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 15
OWN 3
+9
47.6%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Tylor Petkovich for 9 yds to the IllSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
44.7%
Reece Attard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:4451% → 69%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
50.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 17 yds to the IllSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
52.5%
Tommy Vitale run for 3 yds to the IllSt 35Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-5
54.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by B.J. Bello for a loss of 5 yards to the IllSt 40 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Clayton Thorson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+12
49.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the IllSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
54.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the IllSt 24Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
54.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the IllSt 22Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+3
52.1%
Matt Alviti run for 3 yds to the IllSt 19Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+4
49.8%
Auston Anderson run for 4 yds to the IllSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
54.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the IllSt 14Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
54.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the IllSt 10Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
52.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+10
69.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
66.3%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Christian Gibbs for 11 yds to the IllSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
65.9%
George Moreira run for 4 yds to the IllSt 25Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-1
65.5%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for a loss of 1 yard to the IllSt 24Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
67.6%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Christian GibbsSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
69.3%
Reece Attard punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 64%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
67.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew ScanlanSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
67.1%
Auston Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
64.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Dalton KeeneSimilar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+6
63.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IllSt 16 , Spencer Schnell returns for 6 yds to the IllSt 33 ILLINOIS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the IllSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0036% → 32%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
63.9%
Jamal Towns run for 1 yd to the IllSt 17Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
64.4%
Jake Kolbe pass incomplete to Christian GibbsSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+2
66.6%
Jake Kolbe run for 2 yds to the IllSt 19Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
68.1%
Reece Attard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
69.4%
Auston Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
69.6%
Auston Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
69.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
66.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds, downed at the IllSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 22FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 3:1137% → 95%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
63.1%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 18 yds to the IllSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
61.6%
ILLINOIS ST Penalty, false start (Mark Spelman) to the IllSt 26Similar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+7
62.6%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 7 yds to the IllSt 33Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
61.3%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Spencer Schnell for 4 yds to the IllSt 37Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
65.5%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Fowler for 9 yds to the IllSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
61.3%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 3 yds to the IllSt 49Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+11
59.5%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Anthony Warrum for 11 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
58.2%
George Moreira run for 11 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
58.2%
Jake Kolbe pass complete to Christian Gibbs for 11 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
58.2%
George Moreira run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+3
62.8%
George Moreira run for 3 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+33
5.1%
Sean Slattery 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Sean Slattery 33 yd FG GOOD
-62.2
TD · Q4 9:10
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+17.2
TD · Q2 0:32
George Moreira run for 6 yds for a TD, (Sean Slattery PAT MISSED)
-12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com