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INST

Indiana State 28 at Minnesota 58

MINN
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadINST aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreINST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Thomas Bouldin punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINNESOTA 43 INDIANA ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Minn 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+45.3Home team on offense+2.1Score differential+0.5Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:46: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 20 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — INST win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:46: Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Jerry Nunez KICK) — INST win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: INST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:07: Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:41: Tyler Johnson 13 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Emmit Carpenter Kick) — MINN win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:49: Kobe McCrary 6 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick) — MINN win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5INST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:46INST 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:52INST 4th & 1 at MINN 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00INST 4th & 6 at INST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:26INST 4th & 20 at INST 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:14INST 4th & 4 at MINN 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00INST 4th & 5 at INST 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:50MINN 4th & 1 at INST 39, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:51MINN 4th & 5 at INST 26, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:49MINN 4th & 6 at INST 27, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:49INST 4th & 7 at INST 27, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:44INST 4th & 2 at MINN 18, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:44MINN 4th & 2 at INST 33, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7INST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:46MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:46INST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:07MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:26MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:41MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:49MINN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:15INST Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:21MINN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:40INST Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:19MINN Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:44INST Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:14100% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.5%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
99.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Vincent Calhoun) to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-5
99.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Tyler Moore) to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+21
99.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 21 yds to the IndSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the IndSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
99.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+14
99.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 14 yds to the IndSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
99.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Vincent Calhoun) to the IndSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the IndSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+17
99.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 17 yds to the IndSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 20 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.3%
Roland Genesy run for 2 yds to the IndSt 37Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
99.3%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 9 yds to the IndSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.3%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Clayton Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the IndSt 44Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+6
99.3%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Roland Genesy for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
50
0
99.3%
Isaac Harker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 6
50
+43
99.3%
Thomas Bouldin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Myrick at the MINNESOTA 13 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (6 Yards) to the Minn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
99.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 8 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+5
99.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
99.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 16 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 4TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:121% → 2%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.0%
Roland Genesy run for 4 yds to the IndSt 19Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
99.0%
Roland Genesy run for 6 yds to the IndSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.0%
Isaac Harker sacked by Scott Ekpe for a loss of 3 yards to the IndSt 22Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+58
99.0%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Clayton Smith for 58 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.0%
Roland Genesy run for 1 yd to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
98.8%
Dimitri Taylor run for no gain to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+8
98.8%
Dimitri Taylor run for 8 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
98.8%
Isaac Harker run for 3 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
98.8%
Lafaele Fautanu run for 1 yd to the Minn 7Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.8%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Robert Tonyan Jr.Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.3%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Jerry Nunez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 26 yds to the IndSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
98.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the IndSt 10Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
98.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the IndSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:072% → 2%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.5%
Dimitri Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the IndSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
98.5%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Miles Thompson for 5 yds to the IndSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
98.5%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Robert Tonyan Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+13
98.5%
Thomas Bouldin punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINNESOTA 43 INDIANA ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:4199% → 99%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
98.5%
Kobe McCrary run for 13 yds to the IndSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Kobe McCrary for 8 yds to the IndSt 31Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+21
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 21 yds to the IndSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
98.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Tyler Moore) to the IndSt 15Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
98.5%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the IndSt 11Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
98.5%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the IndSt 6Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 6 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Sampson LevingstonSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Robert Tonyan Jr.Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.6%
Isaac Harker sacked by Kamal Martin and Jack Lynn for a loss of 10 yards to the IndSt 15Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+4
98.6%
Thomas Bouldin punt for 35 yds , Drew Wolitarsky returns for 4 yds to the IndSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:4299% → 99%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 20 yds to the IndSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
98.7%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the IndSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
98.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the IndSt 13Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
98.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.3%
Tyler Johnson 13 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Emmit Carpenter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Dimitri Taylor run for no gain to the IndSt 25Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.2%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Bob Pugh for 24 yds to the IndSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.1%
Dimitri Taylor run for 4 yds to the Minn 47 Dimitri Taylor fumbled, forced by Julian Huff, recovered by Minn Damarius TravisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:0199% → 100%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 6 yds to the IndSt 47Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+12
99.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 12 yds to the IndSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
99.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 11 yds to the IndSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 10 yds to the IndSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
99.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the IndSt 10Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
99.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the IndSt 6Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Kobe McCrary 6 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 12DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Bob PughSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.7%
Dimitri Taylor run for 8 yds to the IndSt 33Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.6%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Sampson Levingston for 3 yds to the IndSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.6%
Dimitri Taylor run for 1 yd to the IndSt 37Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+17
99.6%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Bob Pugh for 17 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Robert Tonyan Jr.Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.6%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 15 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.6%
Dimitri Taylor run for 1 yd to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Robert Tonyan Jr.Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Miles ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+5
99.7%
Harker, Isaac pass incomplete to Tonyan, Robert (Shenault, A), PENALTY MINN offside (Poock, Cody) 5 yards to the MINN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
99.7%
Isaac Harker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 13 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.7%
Leidner, Mitch sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MINN44 (Cassidy, Conlan), PENALTY INS personal foul (Cassidy, Conlan) 15 yards to the INS37, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+14
99.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 14 yds to the IndSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
99.7%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard to the IndSt 24Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+42
99.8%
Emmit Carpenter 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Dimitri Taylor run for 7 yds to the IndSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Isaac Harker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
99.8%
Dimitri Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the IndSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Thomas Bouldin punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IndSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the IndSt 46Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the IndSt 40Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the IndSt 39Similar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+8
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the IndSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the IndSt 29Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+3
99.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds to the IndSt 26Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
99.9%
Emmit Carpenter 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.8%
Jaquan Keys run for 14 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
99.8%
Harker, Isaac sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MINN44 (Martin, Kamal), fumble by Harker, Isaac recovered by MINN Richardson, S at MINN44, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Richardson, S) 16 yards to the MINN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.8%
Isaac Harker run for 10 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
99.8%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 4 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Bob Pugh pass complete to Isaac Harker for 10 yds for a TD, (Jerry Nunez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 10 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the IndSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds to the IndSt 33Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+11
99.9%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the IndSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 22 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.9%
Jaquan Keys run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Jacquet McClendonSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Jaquan Keys run for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Isaac Harker run for 6 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
99.9%
Dimitri Taylor run for 1 yd to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+32
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 32 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.8%
Jaquan Keys run for 1 yd to the Minn 2Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Isaac Harker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Jerry Nunez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 6 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 6 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
99.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Colton Beebe for 22 yds to the IndSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Kobe McCrarySimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 4 yds to the IndSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
99.9%
Emmit Carpenter 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.9%
Isaac Harker run for 2 yds to the IndSt 8Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 8
-4
99.9%
Taylor, Dimitri rush for 25 yards to the INS33 (Travis,Damarius), PENALTY INS personal foul (Wozniak, Wyatt) 4 yards to the INS4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 12
OWN 4
0
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+5
99.9%
Harker, Isaac pass incomplete to Thompson, Miles, PENALTY MINN offside (Devers, Tai'yon) 5 yards to the INS9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+15
99.9%
Harker, Isaac pass incomplete to Levingston, Sam, PENALTY MINN pass interference (McGhee, D) 15 yards to the INS24, 1ST DOWN INS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Jaquan Keys run for 2 yds to the IndSt 26Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Sampson Levingston for 1 yd to the IndSt 27Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Thomas Bouldin punt for 59 yds , Drew Wolitarsky returns for 3 yds to the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+43
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 43 yds to the IndSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for a loss of 1 yard to the IndSt 41Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
99.9%
Conor Rhoda pass complete to Hunter Register for 6 yds to the IndSt 35Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-15
99.9%
McCrary, Kobe rush for 6 yards to the INS29 (Moss, Katrell), PENALTY MINN personal foul (Greene, Donnell) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 20
50
+50
99.9%
Kobe McCrary run for 50 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 22TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:350% → 0%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.9%
Jaquan Keys run for 13 yds to the IndSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Jaquan Keys run for no gain to the IndSt 48Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
99.9%
Isaac Harker run for a loss of 3 yards to the IndSt 45Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+18
100.0%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Bob Pugh for 18 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass incomplete to Bob Pugh, broken up by Zo CraightonSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Miles Thompson for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+6
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Miles Thompson for 6 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Jaquan Keys run for 2 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Jaquan Keys for 6 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Jaquan Keys run for no gain to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 18 yds for a TD, (Jerry Nunez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Carlton Djam run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Carlton Djam run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+24
99.9%
Carlton Djam run for 24 yds to the IndSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
100.0%
Carlton Djam run for a loss of 1 yard to the IndSt 42Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Carlton Djam run for 6 yds to the IndSt 36Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+3
100.0%
Carlton Djam run for 3 yds to the IndSt 33Similar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+1
99.9%
Carlton Djam run for 1 yd to the IndSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
INSTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Dimitri Taylor run for 1 yd to the IndSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:41
Tyler Johnson 13 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Emmit Carpenter Kick)
+0.7
TD · Q1 1:46
Isaac Harker pass complete to Robert Tonyan Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Jerry Nunez KICK)
-0.5
TD · Q2 4:49
Kobe McCrary 6 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com