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FUR

Furman 13 at Michigan State 28

MSU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadFUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreFUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:32 · Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 44 yds , R.J. Shelton returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+48.1Home team on offense+1.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 7:34: Jon Croft Hollingsworth 23 yd FG GOOD — FUR win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:26: Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:37: Antonio Wilcox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jon Croft Hollingsworth KICK) — FUR win probability +6.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:39: Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Lj Scott — MSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:55: Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 9:32FUR 4th & 19 at FUR 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23FUR 4th & 9 at FUR 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27MSU 4th & 2 at FUR 26, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:47FUR 4th & 16 at FUR 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51MSU 4th & 7 at FUR 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41FUR 4th & 1 at FUR 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32MSU 4th & 18 at FUR 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:47FUR 4th & 6 at FUR 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:15FUR 4th & 3 at MSU 3, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:33FUR 4th & 1 at MSU 33, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:25FUR 4th & 6 at MSU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:34FUR 4th & 6 at MSU 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:45FUR 4th & 5 at MSU 16, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:04FUR 4th & 5 at FUR 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FUR made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 11:19MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:19MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:26MSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:37FUR Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:55MSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:29100% → 99%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+32
99.5%
R.J. Shelton run for 32 yds to the Furm 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
99.4%
Lj Scott run for 21 yds to the Furm 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.4%
Lj Scott run for 9 yds to the Furm 14Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
99.4%
Prescott Line run for 3 yds to the Furm 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
99.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 8 yds to the Furm 3Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
99.3%
Lj Scott run for 2 yds to the Furm 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Lj Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.3%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 3 yds to the Furm 38Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-4
99.3%
FURMAN Penalty, False Start (Jordan Hawkins) to the Furm 34Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
99.3%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-8
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Furm 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Furm P.J. BlazejowskiSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+6
99.2%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 44 yds , R.J. Shelton returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3899% → 99%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.2%
Lj Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-2
99.2%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Carl Rider for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+5
99.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 58 yds , Andrej Suttles returns for 5 yds to the Furm 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
99.2%
Darius Morehead run for 11 yds to the Furm 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.1%
Darius Morehead run for 1 yd to the Furm 26Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Darius Morehead run for no gain to the Furm 26Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.1%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andy SchumpertSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+13
99.1%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 34 yds , R.J. Shelton returns for 13 yds to the Furm 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4899% → 99%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.1%
Lj Scott run for 3 yds to the Furm 44Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+10
99.0%
FURMAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Byron Johnson) to the Furm 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.0%
Lj Scott run for 5 yds to the Furm 29Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
99.0%
Lj Scott run for 2 yds to the Furm 27Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+1
98.9%
Donnie Corley run for 1 yd to the Furm 26Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+43
98.9%
Michael Geiger 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.8%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
98.8%
Richard Hayes III run for 14 yds to the Furm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
98.8%
Richard Hayes III run for a loss of 6 yards to the Furm 34Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
98.7%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
98.7%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4699% → 99%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
98.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 16 yds to the Furm 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.7%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Furm 47Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
98.7%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the Furm 46Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-15
98.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Josiah Price) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 22
OWN 39
+15
98.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Madre London for 15 yds to the Furm 46Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
98.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, downed at the Furm 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:572% → 2%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.5%
Darius Morehead run for 7 yds to the Furm 15Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+8
98.5%
Darius Morehead run for 8 yds to the Furm 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
98.4%
Darius Morehead run for 6 yds to the Furm 29Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
98.3%
Darius Morehead run for 3 yds to the Furm 32Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
98.2%
Ridge Gibson run for no gain to the Furm 32Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+1
98.2%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 43 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:0098% → 98%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
98.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 12 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
98.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 23 yds to the Furm 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
98.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josiah Price) to the Furm 49Similar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+3
98.1%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Furm 46Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 17
OPP 46
0
98.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 17
OPP 46
-1
97.9%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Jaylan Reid for a loss of 1 yard to the Furm 47Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
97.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, downed at the Furm 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
97.8%
P.J. Blazejowski run for a loss of 4 yards to the Furm 5 P.J. Blazejowski fumbled, recovered by Furm P.J. BlazejowskiSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+2
97.7%
Darius Morehead run for 2 yds to the Furm 7Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+6
97.7%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 6 yds to the Furm 13Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+3
97.7%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 37 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 16 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 3:1198% → 98%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
97.8%
Lj Scott run for 12 yds to the Furm 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
97.8%
Lj Scott run for 4 yds to the Furm 41Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+11
97.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 11 yds to the Furm 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
97.7%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the Furm 27Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+11
97.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 11 yds to the Furm 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
97.7%
Lj Scott run for 2 yds to the Furm 14Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
97.6%
Lj Scott run for 1 yd to the Furm 13Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
98.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Felton Davis III for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 12FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 2:502% → 3%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
98.1%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Jd Tuten for 16 yds to the Furm 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
98.0%
Richard Hayes III run for 7 yds to the Furm 48Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
97.9%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
97.8%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Duncan Fletcher for 7 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
97.8%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Jd Tuten for 14 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
97.6%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 13 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
97.6%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Richard Hayes III for 4 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
97.6%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+11
97.6%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Logan McCarter for 11 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.6%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Duncan Fletcher for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.6%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andy SchumpertSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.8%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
97.5%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:213% → 4%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Darian Hicks) to the Furm 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.1%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
97.0%
P.J. Blazejowski sacked by Evan Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Furm 35Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+23
97.3%
Darius Morehead run for 8 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
96.7%
Darius Morehead run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
96.5%
Darius Morehead run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
96.4%
Darius Morehead run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+50
96.5%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
96.9%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for 1 yd to the MchSt 35 Darrell Stewart Jr. fumbled, recovered by Furm Aaquil AnnoorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 16FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:464% → 5%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
96.0%
Richard Hayes III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-5
96.0%
FURMAN Penalty, False Start (Terrell Bush) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
96.2%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andy SchumpertSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+8
96.4%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Duncan Fletcher for 8 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+10
96.6%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 10 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
96.0%
Darius Morehead run for 1 yd to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+15
95.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Darian Hicks) to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.9%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
95.8%
Darius Morehead run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.9%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
94.6%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:4296% → 98%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
96.1%
Lj Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-5
96.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Brandon Clemons) to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
96.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 2
50
+31
96.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 31 yds to the Furm 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
96.7%
Lj Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Furm 21Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+21
98.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 18TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:233% → 9%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
97.3%
Darius Morehead run for 7 yds to the Furm 34Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
97.1%
Darius Morehead run for 2 yds to the Furm 36Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
97.0%
Antonio Wilcox run for 3 yds to the Furm 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
97.3%
Darius Morehead run for 9 yds to the Furm 48Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
97.2%
Darius Morehead run for 5 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
97.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Demetrious Cox) to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
97.2%
Duncan Fletcher pass complete to Darius Morehead for 16 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
96.7%
Darius Morehead run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
96.7%
P.J. Blazejowski pass incomplete to Logan McCarterSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+2
96.9%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Duncan Fletcher for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+10
97.0%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Logan McCarter for 10 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.9%
Antonio Wilcox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jon Croft Hollingsworth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2594% → 94%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
94.4%
Lj Scott run for 9 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
95.1%
Lj Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
95.2%
Lj Scott run for 9 yds to the MICHIGANST 47 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Felton Davis III) to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 16
OWN 38
0
94.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+2
94.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Byron Johnson return for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.1%
P.J. Blazejowski pass intercepted Andrew Dowell return for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:4495% → 98%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Lj ScottSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
94.3%
Monty Madaris run for 12 yds to the Furm 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
94.8%
Tyler O'Connor run for 9 yds to the Furm 39Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
94.7%
Lj Scott run for 5 yds to the Furm 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.8%
Tyler O'Connor run for no gain to the Furm 34Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
94.6%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the Furm 32Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+11
94.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 11 yds to the Furm 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
94.8%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the Furm 18Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
95.0%
Madre London run for 5 yds to the Furm 13Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+9
94.7%
Lj Scott run for 9 yds to the Furm 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
95.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Furm 14Similar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
96.0%
Lj Scott run for 2 yds to the Furm 12Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
98.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:392% → 2%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.0%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Darius Morehead for 9 yds to the Furm 34Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.8%
Darius Morehead run for 2 yds to the Furm 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
97.9%
P.J. Blazejowski run for a loss of 8 yards to the Furm 28Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+10
98.0%
P.J. Blazejowski pass complete to Logan McCarter for 10 yds to the Furm 38Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+3
98.0%
P.J. Blazejowski run for 3 yds to the Furm 41Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+1
98.1%
Antonio Wilcox run for 1 yd to the Furm 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Furm 45Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 13
OPP 45
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Furm 47Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 15
OPP 47
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Furm 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:37
Antonio Wilcox run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jon Croft Hollingsworth KICK)
-6.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:39
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Lj Scott
+3.5
TD · Q4 4:55
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com