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OSU

Ohio State 17 at Michigan State 16

MSU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:40 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, downed at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior−42.6Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:03: Tyler Durbin 39 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:33: Mike Weber run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK) — OSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:41: LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler O'Connor intercepted ) — MSU win probability +27.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:36: J.T. Barrett pass incomplete — OSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:17: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 35 — OSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:22OSU 4th & 16 at MSU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:06OSU 4th & 15 at OSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:42MSU 4th & 9 at OSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:03OSU 4th & 6 at MSU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:47MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:05OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:02MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:52OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:19MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:55MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−3.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:26OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:06MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 38, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:13MSU 4th & 18 at OSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−1.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:34OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:04OSU 4th & 8 at MSU 47, up 1
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:14MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:56OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:33OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:417% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
6.6%
R.J. Shelton run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
6.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to LJ Scott for 64 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:4893% → 91%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
6.9%
Mike Weber run for 7 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+16
7.1%
Mike Weber run for 16 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
7.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
7.4%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
7.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 5 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
7.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 2 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
8.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to K.J. HillSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-8
8.2%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Shane Jones and Chris Frey for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 16
OPP 34
0
8.7%
Cameron Johnston punt for 30 yds, downed at the MchSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:359% → 9%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
8.8%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 11
OWN 3
0
9.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Monty Madaris) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 3
0
9.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 11
OWN 3
0
9.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3991% → 91%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
50
+10
8.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
9.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Parris CampbellSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
9.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+9
9.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
8.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:129% → 11%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.2%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
9.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Prescott Line) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
9.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
10.0%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
10.5%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
10.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+12
10.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds , Curtis Samuel returns for 12 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2490% → 89%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
10.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 19 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
10.4%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 43Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
11.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus BaughSimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
11.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 15
OWN 43
-3
11.5%
Cameron Johnston punt for 41 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:1311% → 15%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+61
11.4%
LJ Scott run for 61 yds to the OhSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
12.4%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
12.9%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the OhSt 22Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+10
13.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 10 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-7
14.5%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 19Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 17
OPP 19
+8
14.3%
Tyler O'Connor run for 8 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
14.7%
R.J. Shelton run for no gain to the OhSt 11Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
15.1%
Michael Geiger 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:2485% → 85%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
15.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+19
15.5%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Demetrius Cooper) to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
15.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-6
14.9%
Mike Weber run for 9 yds to the OhSt 37 OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Jordan) to the OhSt 48Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
15.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Montae Nicholson) to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
15.5%
Curtis Samuel run for 7 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+4
15.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
15.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
15.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Terry McLaurinSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+4
16.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
15.4%
Tyler Durbin 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4617% → 18%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
17.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Chris Worley return for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5985% → 84%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
15.1%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Robert Bowers and Mike Panasiuk for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+6
16.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+14
15.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 14 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
15.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
15.5%
Curtis Samuel run for 3 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
16.3%
Mike Weber run for no gain to the MchSt 16 Mike Weber fumbled, forced by Auston Robertson, recovered by MchSt Justice AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0720% → 22%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
20.0%
LJ Scott run for 24 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.5%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
21.1%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+3
21.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
21.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 53 yds , Curtis Samuel returns for no gain to the OhSt 4 Curtis Samuel fumbled, recovered by OhSt Curtis SamuelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:3980% → 78%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
20.1%
Curtis Samuel run for no gain to the OhSt 4Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+9
20.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+4
20.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
20.7%
Curtis Samuel run for 3 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
21.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 6 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+6
22.0%
Mike Weber run for 6 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5078% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
21.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
21.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
21.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to James ClarkSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
22.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to James Clark for 9 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
21.6%
Mike Weber run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
23.7%
Cameron Johnston punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5426% → 27%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
26.4%
Damion Terry run for 7 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+5
27.3%
Damion Terry run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
27.8%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
27.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+5
26.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 5 yds to the MchSt 28 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Benny McGowan) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
26.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds, downed at the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0675% → 71%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Noah BrownSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
26.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 6 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-8
25.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 40 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
28.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
28.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2529% → 30%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.4%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
30.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
29.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Curtis Samuel at the OhSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:3773% → 87%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+52
27.2%
Mike Weber run for 52 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
23.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+8
23.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.3%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:3118% → 16%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
17.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 8 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
19.6%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
20.0%
O'Connor, Tyler rush for 5 yards to the OHIOST48, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Clemons, Brandon) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
17.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 20
OWN 37
0
17.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 20
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Tyler O'Connor run for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 20
OWN 37
0
16.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds, downed at the OhSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1985% → 84%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
15.2%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
15.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus BaughSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
15.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+8
17.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
15.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 5:0519% → 18%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
18.5%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
18.6%
Damion Terry pass complete to LJ Scott for 12 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
17.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-1
17.4%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
17.2%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+10
16.3%
Damion Terry pass complete to Josiah Price for 10 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+25
16.9%
Chris Frey run for 25 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
21.6%
Holmes, Gerald rush for 2 yards to the OHIOST35, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Clemons, Brandon) 10 yards to the OHIOST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-1
20.1%
R.J. Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 21
OPP 48
+8
20.0%
Damion Terry run for 8 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 13
OPP 40
-5
19.9%
Damion Terry sacked by Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
17.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Curtis Samuel at the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3083% → 83%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
16.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 10Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+4
15.4%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
16.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Parris CampbellSimilar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
17.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 42 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for no gain to the MchSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 4:4621% → 52%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
20.8%
LJ Scott run for 26 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
24.8%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+12
25.1%
LJ Scott run for 12 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
25.1%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 8Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
24.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+4
22.4%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.9%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the OhSt 1Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.6%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler O'Connor intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 2:3268% → 70%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
32.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
30.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
28.6%
Mike Weber run for a loss of 6 yards to the MICHIGANST 45 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Pat Elflein) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 16
OWN 45
-10
31.6%
Barrett, J.T. rush for 10 yards to the MICHIGANST45, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Prince, Isaiah) 10 yards to the OHIOST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 26
OWN 35
+11
33.5%
Mike Weber run for 11 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+7
31.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
30.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24INT
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:3035% → 35%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
35.4%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 10 Tyler O'Connor fumbled, forced by Tyquan Lewis, recovered by MchSt Tyler O'Connor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
34.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Gareon Conley return for no gain to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:1782% → 94%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
18.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-1
12.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-2
5.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:41
LJ Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler O'Connor intercepted )
+27.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:17
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 35
-16.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:36
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete
-10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com