2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreNEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:24 · J.T. Barrett pass complete to A.J. Alexander for 6 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 7:45: Drew Brown 20 Yd Field Goal — NEB win probability +0.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q1 3:16: Terry McLaurin 7 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Tyler Durbin Kick) — OSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:21: Mike Weber 23 Yd Run (Tyler Durbin Kick) — OSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:22: Tyler Durbin 28 Yd Field Goal — OSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:03: Curtis Samuel 1 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Tyler Durbin Kick) — OSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 7:45NEB 4th & 3 at OSU 3, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snapGo for it16.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call16.0%−0.193% to makePunt15.3%−0.8average punt
- Q1 0:46NEB 4th & 5 at OSU 45, down 11Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snapGo for it15.9%41% to convertField goal15.5%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call15.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:14NEB 4th & 12 at NEB 3, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it8.8%−1.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.5%average punt
- Q2 8:22OSU 4th & 10 at NEB 11, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.524% to convertField goalTheir call89.9%87% to makePunt86.2%−3.8average punt
- Q2 7:23NEB 4th & 11 at NEB 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.925% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q2 3:42NEB 4th & 1 at OSU 15, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%71% to convertField goal5.6%−1.083% to makePunt2.7%−4.0average punt
- Q3 13:39NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 29, down 35Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:24OSU 4th & 1 at NEB 28, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%71% to convertField goal99.5%−0.260% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:35OSU 4th & 9 at NEB 11, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%87% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:40NEB 4th & 8 at OSU 9, down 52Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.1%89% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:16NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 29, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:26OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:16OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.4%97% to makeGo for two84.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:21OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:03OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:48OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:00OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:34OSU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:19OSU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1INT TD4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1918% → 18%
Q1 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+36
82.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Damon Webb return for 36 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2FG17 plays · 72 yds · 5:3318% → 19%
Q1 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
82.2%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Westerkamp, Jordan, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Conley, Gareon) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA.Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+26
82.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 26 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
81.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Cotton, broken up by Malik HookerSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
81.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 6 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+10
81.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 10 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD14 plays · 57 yds · 4:0981% → 83%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
81.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 9 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+6
81.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 6 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
81.2%
Samuel, Curtis rush for no gain to the NEBRASKA21, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Elflein, Pat) 10 yards to the NEBRASKA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+5
81.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 5 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 15
OPP 26
0
80.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus Baugh, broken up by Joshua KaluSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 20
OPP 31
+22
80.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 22 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1716% → 17%
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+32
83.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
82.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Marshon LattimoreSimilar
Q1 0:46
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
82.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD10 plays · 83 yds · 3:1883% → 89%
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
83.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
84.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 4 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
84.6%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Samuel, Curtis (Jones, Chris), PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Jones, Chris) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5112% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7FG10 plays · 20 yds · 2:4289% → 93%
Q2 10:28
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+8
89.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+8
89.8%
Barrett, J.T. pass complete to Campbell, Parris for 4 yards to the NEBRASKA15, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Jones, Chris) 8 yards to the NEBRASKA11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FUMBLE5 plays · -1 yds · 0:458% → 8%
Q2 7:32
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
92.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Westerkamp, broken up by Gareon ConleySimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 11
OWN 21
-2
92.5%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 39 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 38 Dontre Wilson fumbled, recovered by Neb Luke McNittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 23 yds · 3:338% → 7%
Q2 5:02
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+9
92.1%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Cethan Carter for 9 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD17 plays · 85 yds · 3:3395% → 99%
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
95.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 6 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
95.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 16 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
96.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to A.J. Alexander for 9 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
96.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 14 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass incomplete to Jordan Westerkamp, broken up by Chris WorleySimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
98.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Denzel WardSimilar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 3
OWN 29
-5
98.9%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 53 yds , Curtis Samuel returns for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD9 plays · 87 yds · 3:3599% → 100%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Noah Brown, broken up by Joshua KaluSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+12
98.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 12 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+16
99.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 16 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:321% → 1%
OSUDrive 16FG16 plays · 41 yds · 7:20100% → 100%
Q3 7:50
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 10 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+6
99.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to A.J. Alexander for 6 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+8
99.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 8 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-2
99.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17INT TD4 plays · 1 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q3 0:34
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+48
99.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass intercepted for a TD Malik Hooker return for 48 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 63 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+12
99.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 12 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass incomplete to Cethan Carter, broken up by Joe BurgerSimilar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+18
99.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 18 yds to the OhSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Denzel WardSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+7
99.9%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 7 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD11 plays · 98 yds · 5:15100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+12
99.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to K.J. Hill for 12 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
99.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to K.J. Hill for 26 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:550% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21END OF GAME10 plays · 47 yds · 6:07100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-2
100.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Corey Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
100.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
100.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to A.J. Alexander for 9 yds to the Neb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:21
Mike Weber 23 Yd Run (Tyler Durbin Kick)
+4.2
TD · Q2 0:03
Curtis Samuel 1 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Tyler Durbin Kick)
+3.4
FG · Q2 8:22
Tyler Durbin 28 Yd Field Goal
+3.3