Try the model
NU

Northwestern 20 at Ohio State 24

OSU
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-9.9OSU 76.9%Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 24 · Q4 3:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:31 · Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense+7.6Garbage-time factor+3.4Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +2.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:17: Mike Weber run for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK) — OSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:49: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +13.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:43: Curtis Samuel run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK) — OSU win probability +18.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:31: Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +9.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:30NU 4th & 9 at OSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:36OSU 4th & 4 at NU 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:00NU 4th & 2 at OSU 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:43NU 4th & 6 at OSU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:16OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:43NU 4th & 11 at NU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:14OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:23OSU 4th & 3 at NU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:19NU 4th & 10 at NU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:30OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:17NU 4th & 2 at OSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−2.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:43OSU 4th & 7 at NU 36, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−0.9
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:19NU 4th & 6 at NU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−2.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:31NU 4th & 15 at OSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:34OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:17OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:49NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:43OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:256% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
93.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 17 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
93.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 13 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
93.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
93.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
93.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 2:4193% → 93%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
93.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 3 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+7
93.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Noah Brown for 7 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
93.1%
Mike Weber run for 14 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Terry McLaurinSimilar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
93.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 15 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
93.0%
Parris Campbell run for 24 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
93.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 15 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.2%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:177% → 7%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
93.0%
John Moten IV run for 16 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.9%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Damon Arnette return for no gain to the OhSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2993% → 93%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.2%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
93.1%
Mike Weber run for 7 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Dontre Wilson, broken up by Jordan ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.1%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+11
92.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 11 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
92.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus BaughSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
92.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Noah Brown for 6 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
92.7%
Dontre Wilson run for no gain to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
92.6%
Tyler Durbin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:378% → 11%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.4%
John Moten IV run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
92.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
92.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 10 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
92.1%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 2 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+8
92.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 8 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
91.7%
Justin Jackson run for 22 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
91.7%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+11
91.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 11 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
91.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 4 yds to the OhSt 8Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
91.2%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the OhSt 8Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+4
91.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 4 yds to the OhSt 4Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+3
91.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 3 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.9%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the OhSt 1Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 8:2190% → 91%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
89.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
89.7%
Curtis Samuel run for 1 yd to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
89.0%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
89.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to James Clark for 9 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
89.3%
Mike Weber run for 1 yd to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus BaughSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+9
88.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 9 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
88.9%
Dontre Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 14
50
+13
88.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Noah Brown for 13 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
88.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
88.6%
J.T. Barrett sacked by C.J. Robbins for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+4
87.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+13
87.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 13 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
91.1%
Mike Weber run for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 82 yds · 4:2310% → 12%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
90.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Charlie FesslerSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+17
90.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 17 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
90.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 7 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+9
89.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 9 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+35
89.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 35 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
88.7%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
88.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
88.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 8Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
88.6%
Matt Alviti run for 2 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
88.1%
Jack Mitchell 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2089% → 88%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Marcus Baugh, broken up by Nate HallSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
88.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Jamarco Jones) to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
88.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:2411% → 10%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
88.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+3
89.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+4
90.3%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
90.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2390% → 89%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
90.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Mike Weber for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
90.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Curtis Samuel, broken up by Kyle QueiroSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
89.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Mike WeberSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
88.7%
Cameron Johnston punt for 27 yds, downed at the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0711% → 11%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
89.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Denzel WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2789% → 88%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
88.5%
Curtis Samuel run for 23 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
89.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
89.3%
Dontre Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+1
88.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
87.7%
Cameron Johnston punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:5613% → 13%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
87.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 11 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
87.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+24
87.4%
Justin Jackson run for 24 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
86.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 3 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-3
85.6%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
86.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+7
87.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 7 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4487% → 87%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.3%
Parris Campbell run for 3 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
88.1%
Mike Weber run for 5 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
87.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
88.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (James Clark) to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
87.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+3
88.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 3 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
88.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to James ClarkSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
87.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:3414% → 33%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+30
85.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 30 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
84.2%
Thorson, Clayton pass complete to Carr, Austin for 16 yards to the OHIOST38, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Olson, Eric) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+2
85.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 18
OWN 38
0
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 18
OWN 38
+16
85.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 16 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+6
84.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 6 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+35
83.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 35 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
81.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 3:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:5574% → 71%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
73.9%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
72.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 19 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
75.8%
Curtis Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 48Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+9
74.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 9 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+4
75.2%
Mike Weber run for 4 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
75.3%
Curtis Samuel run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
75.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-1
74.5%
Curtis Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
71.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1934% → 32%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
66.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
66.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
66.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
68.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds, downed at the OhSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:2970% → 91%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
70.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
71.6%
Curtis Samuel run for 6 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
71.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Noah Brown for 9 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+34
72.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to K.J. Hill for 34 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
72.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.2%
Curtis Samuel run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FG
18 plays · 60 yds · 6:0514% → 23%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
83.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
85.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 2 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
85.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
84.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Green for 13 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
82.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
84.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+18
84.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 18 yds to the OhSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
82.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 14
OPP 30
0
84.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+27
86.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 27 yds to the OhSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
81.9%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 5Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.6%
Andrew Scanlan pass incomplete to James PratherSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
84.4%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete to Carr, Austin, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Hance, Blake) 10 yards to the OHIOST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
86.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
76.9%
Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20END OF GAME
14 plays · 60 yds · 2:5787% → 95%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Noah BrownSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
86.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Noah Brown for 16 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.1%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
90.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Noah Brown, broken up by Marcus McShepardSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+35
91.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 35 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
95.0%
Mike Weber run for 11 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
95.2%
Mike Weber run for 2 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-4
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 12
OPP 13
-2
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:43
Curtis Samuel run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q3 3:49
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-13.9
FG · Q4 3:31
Jack Mitchell 33 yd FG GOOD
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com