2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:26 · Michael Cintron punt for 46 yds, downed at the OhSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:19: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin PAT MISSED) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:11: Tyler Durbin 33 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:51: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK) — OSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:27: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK) — OSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:11: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4RUTG made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 11:26RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 6:51RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 1:48RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 45, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 11:14RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 32, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q2 7:36OSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 19, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.8%56% to convertField goal95.6%−0.277% to makePunt94.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:26RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 23, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q2 1:29RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 20, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 0:40OSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 44, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%70% to convertField goal98.5%−0.127% to makePunt98.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:14RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 18, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 5:15RUTG 4th & 20 at RUTG 14, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:36OSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 20, up 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.175% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 2:18RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 28, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:41RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 27, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:17OSU 4th & 11 at RUTG 11, up 58Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−0.122% to convertField goal100.0%87% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 4:19OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:51OSU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:27OSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:11OSU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:36OSU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:24OSU Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:36OSU Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:50OSU Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT12 plays · 32 yds · 3:202% → 2%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
98.3%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Jawuan Harris for 21 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+10
98.2%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Jawuan Harris for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
98.0%
Jawuan Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 45 Jawuan Harris fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Jawuan Harris Jawuan Harris fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Chris LavianoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2INT7 plays · 34 yds · 3:0098% → 98%
RUTGDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:083% → 3%
Q1 6:51
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+16
97.3%
Michael Cintron punt for 33 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 16 yds to the OHIOST 35 RUTGERS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2197% → 97%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
97.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 8 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+8
97.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
97.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:193% → 3%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
96.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Jawuan Harris for 2 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-7
96.8%
Chris Laviano sacked by Robert Landers for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
96.8%
Michael Cintron punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6FG11 plays · 54 yds · 2:3097% → 97%
Q1 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+6
96.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the Rutgr 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
96.9%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Brown, Noah) 15 yards to the RUTGERS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+5
96.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 5 yds to the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:263% → 4%
Q2 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
96.5%
Michael Cintron punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD13 plays · 72 yds · 5:1597% → 98%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
96.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to James Clark for 8 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+16
96.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 16 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:173% → 3%
Q2 4:26
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+13
97.0%
Michael Cintron punt for 47 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 13 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD7 plays · 57 yds · 1:4698% → 99%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
97.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 11 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
97.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 9 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
97.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Parris Campbell for 8 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+7
97.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 7 yds to the Rutgr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
98.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q2 1:29
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
98.4%
Michael Cintron punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD12 plays · 53 yds · 1:1399% → 100%
Q2 0:54
3RD & 25
OWN 32
+24
98.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 24 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.0%
RUTGERS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
99.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 13 yds to the Rutgr 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q3 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+16
99.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 16 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:010% → 0%
OSUDrive 16TD7 plays · 48 yds · 3:42100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 0 yds · 1:540% → 0%
OSUDrive 18TD5 plays · 44 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q3 2:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+44
99.9%
Michael Cintron punt for 44 yds , Demario McCall returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD10 plays · 73 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q4 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 11:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Michael Cintron punt for 37 yds , Demario McCall returns for no gain to the OhSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22DOWNS16 plays · 55 yds · 10:13100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 23END OF GAME5 plays · 19 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 0:39
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+15
100.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:51
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Terry McLaurin for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 2:27
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Marcus Baugh for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 0:11
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Durbin KICK)
+0.7