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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreIOWA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Iowa 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:34: RUTGERS Penalty, roughing the kicker (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — IOWA win probability +7.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:50: Timeout RUTGERS, clock 12:50 — RUTG win probability +24.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- SACK · Q4 12:38: C.J. Beathard sacked by Julian Pinnix-Odrick and Quanzell Lambert for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 39 — IOWA win probability +10.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:42: IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 26 — IOWA win probability +32.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:40: LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the Iowa 25 — IOWA win probability +8.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 8IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 15:00RUTG 4th & 1 at IOWA 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.1%71% to convertField goal19.9%−0.185% to makePunt19.5%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:42IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.6%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.8%average punt
- Q1 5:38RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 20, tiedClose callPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it24.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:54IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snapGo for it73.8%−0.431% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%average punt
- Q1 2:34RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it71.1%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.2%average punt
- Q2 14:17RUTG 4th & 7 at IOWA 40, tiedClose callPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.9%37% to convertField goal28.7%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call28.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:57IOWA 4th & 5 at RUTG 10, tiedClose callWent for it · 69.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.3%−0.137% to convertField goal69.4%88% to makePunt64.8%−4.6average punt
- Q2 2:10RUTG 4th & 3 at IOWA 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.7%44% to convertField goal35.8%−0.993% to makePunt30.7%−6.0average punt
- Q3 11:52IOWA 4th & 12 at RUTG 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it75.8%−0.724% to convertField goal75.9%−0.632% to makePuntTheir call76.5%average punt
- Q3 11:12RUTG 4th & 18 at RUTG 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it22.4%−2.813% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%average punt
- Q3 7:54IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snapGo for it75.8%−1.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.3%average punt
- Q3 4:43RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it23.6%−1.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.4%average punt
- Q3 3:03IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 42, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 78.0% before the snapGo for it78.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.1%−1.6average punt
- Q4 12:38IOWA 4th & 26 at IOWA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snapGo for it44.5%−10.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%average punt
- Q4 8:35RUTG 4th & 2 at IOWA 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.4%56% to convertField goal24.2%−1.280% to makePunt11.8%−13.7average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT20 plays · 39 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
18.1%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 7 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
18.1%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 4 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-3
18.1%
Chris Laviano sacked by Matt Nelson for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+5
18.1%
Laviano, Chris pass incomplete (Hesse, Parker), QB hurry by Hesse, Parker, PENALTY IOWA offside defense (Rugamba, Manny) 5 yards to the IOWA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
18.1%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 2 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-15
18.1%
Laviano, Chris pass complete to Martin, Robert for 3 yards to the IOWA5, out-of-bounds (Snyder, Brandon), PENALTY RU pass interference (Arcidiacono, N.) 15 yards to the IOWA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 23
-13
18.1%
Chris Laviano sacked by Parker Hesse for a loss of 13 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
RUTGDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
IOWADrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-5
23.8%
Coluzzi, Ron punt 48 yards to the RU14, Grant, Janarion return to the RU14, PENALTY IOWA illegal formation 5 yards to the IOWA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
24.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 2:34
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
24.5%
Michael Cintron punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4075% → 74%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
24.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 5 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
24.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 12 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 15
0
25.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jerminic Smith, broken up by Blessuan AustinSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 15
+9
26.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to LeShun Daniels Jr. for 9 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
26.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8DOWNS14 plays · 70 yds · 6:1173% → 72%
Q2 12:08
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
27.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 6 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
26.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 10 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+24
26.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jerminic Smith for 24 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9DOWNS10 plays · 89 yds · 3:4332% → 35%
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+76
31.6%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Janarion Grant for 76 yds to the Iowa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10TD9 plays · 99 yds · 1:3069% → 79%
Q2 2:04
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+20
31.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 20 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
28.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 8 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+7
27.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 7 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
20.9%
RUTGERS Penalty, roughing the kicker (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 2:5678% → 78%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
22.0%
Daniels, LeShun rush for 75 yards to the RU0, clock 14:48, PENALTY IOWA personal foul (Boettger, Ike) 12 yards to the IOWA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+30
22.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Akrum Wadley for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 2
OPP 31
-10
19.9%
Wadley, Akrum rush for no gain to the RU31, out-of-bounds (Morris, Trevor), PENALTY IOWA holding (Croston, Cole) 10 yards to the RU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
21.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jawuan Harris at the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+19
24.0%
Chris Laviano pass complete to John Tsimis for 19 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-5
22.5%
Martin, Robert rush for 1 yard to the RU20 (Bazata, Nathan), PENALTY RU illegal formation 5 yards to the RU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+19
22.3%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Robert Martin for 19 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
25.9%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Jawuan Harris for 4 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-15
25.7%
Laviano, Chris pass complete to Tsimis, John for 8 yards to the IOWA30, PENALTY RU pass interference (Arcidiacono, N.) 15 yards to the RU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 18
OWN 47
+1
21.9%
Michael Cintron punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 14 , Desmond King returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
RUTGDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3624% → 22%
Q3 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
23.9%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Nick Arcidiacono, broken up by Bo BowerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2180% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD13 plays · 88 yds · 2:2123% → 28%
Q3 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+7
22.5%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Jawuan Harris for 7 yds to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
26.4%
Chris Laviano pass incomplete to Justin Goodwin, broken up by Desmond KingSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-4
28.1%
Chris Laviano sacked by Matt Nelson for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0062% → 54%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
37.7%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Julian Pinnix-Odrick and Quanzell Lambert for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 39Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 19
OWN 39
0
41.8%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBerg, broken up by Sebastian JosephSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 19
OWN 39
-7
42.8%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Trevor Morris for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 26
OWN 32
0
45.7%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jawuan Harris at the Rutgr 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19FUMBLE6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q4 11:11
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-4
47.5%
Chris Laviano sacked by Parker Hesse for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 16
OWN 24
0
45.3%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Andre Patton for no gain Andre Patton fumbled, forced by Brandon Snyder, recovered by Iowa Brandon SnyderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20TD1 play · 21 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 56 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
IOWADrive 22END OF GAME8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5788% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:42
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 26
-32.6
TD · Q4 12:50
Timeout RUTGERS, clock 12:50
+24.1
SACK · Q4 12:38
C.J. Beathard sacked by Julian Pinnix-Odrick and Quanzell Lambert for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 39
-10.4