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TCU

TCU 31 at Texas 9

TEX
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Adam Nunez punt for 30 yds, downed at the Texas 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense−1.6Pregame prior+13.2Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:25: Mitchell Becker 24 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +2.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q3 11:44: Brandon Hatfield 28 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +3.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:49: Kenny Hill run for 41 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +19.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:18: Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +14.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:32: Darius Anderson run for 70 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +5.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 11 of 15TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:28TEX 4th & 3 at TCU 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17TCU 4th & 10 at TEX 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:26TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 32, down 4
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TCU 4th & 28 at TCU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:37TEX 4th & 4 at TCU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:37TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:08TEX 4th & 11 at TCU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:08TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:16TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:25TEX 4th & 7 at TCU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:31TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:18TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:44TCU 4th & 10 at TEX 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−9.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:30TEX 4th & 12 at TCU 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−10.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:49TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:05TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:05TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 32, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−1.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:14TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:18TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:27TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 45, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:47TCU 4th & 7 at TEX 42, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:40TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 10, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:09TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 49, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:48TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:49TCU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:18TCU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:32TCU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
67.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+7
67.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 7 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
67.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+8
67.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 8 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
67.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
67.6%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+1
67.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
67.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2133% → 36%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
67.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 15 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
67.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 6
50
+14
67.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 14 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
67.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 5 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+14
66.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 14 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
66.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 13 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.5%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2065% → 65%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
65.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 8 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
65.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+48
65.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 48 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
65.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
65.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+1
65.7%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the TCU 4Similar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
65.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
65.1%
Trent Domingue 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan Austin, broken up by Naashon HughesSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
63.8%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
64.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
64.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
63.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 8 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+7
64.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
64.2%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-4
64.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+12
63.6%
Shane Buechele run for 12 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
63.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:4437% → 36%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
62.8%
Kenny Hill run for 9 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
62.1%
Hill, Kenny right side pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY UT defensive pass interference (Bonney, John) 6 yards to the TCU44, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
62.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-10
62.1%
Hill, Kenny rush over right end for 31 yards to the UT23, PENALTY TCU offensive holding (Collins, A.) 10 yards to the TCU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 18
OWN 36
-3
63.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 33
-7
63.2%
Kenny Hill sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 26 Kenny Hill fumbled, recovered by TCU , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 28
OWN 26
0
63.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 30 yds, downed at the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
64.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Andrew Beck for 20 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
64.4%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
64.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Niko SmallSimilar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+4
64.1%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
63.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian Leonard, broken up by Ranthony TexadaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
61.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-10
61.5%
Hill, Kenny rush over left end for 2 yards to the TCU38 (Jefferson, Malik), PENALTY TCU offensive holding (Noteboom, J.) 10 yards to the TCU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
62.6%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 15
OWN 26
0
63.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
63.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:5162% → 60%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
62.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 15 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
63.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 13 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
64.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+17
63.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 17 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
64.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
64.3%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-5
64.4%
Buechele, Shane post pass incomplete to Foreman, Armanti (Texada, R.), PENALTY UT ineligible downfield on pass (Hodges, Brandon) 5 yards to the TCU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+1
63.1%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
60.0%
Trent Domingue 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
59.6%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+4
60.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 4 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-9
60.5%
Kenny Hill sacked by Paul Boyette Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 18
OWN 13
0
61.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
60.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+23
60.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 23 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
62.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+12
62.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 12 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
62.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 13 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
62.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
62.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
57.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 14 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
56.7%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+24
57.0%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted DeShon Elliott return for 24 yds to the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1461% → 61%
Q2 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
61.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
59.9%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
58.6%
TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-6 Yards) to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
61.4%
Mitchell Becker 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4942% → 40%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
58.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+1
58.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
59.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Deante GraySimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
60.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for no gain to the Texas 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0062% → 58%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
61.8%
Shane Buechele sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
59.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
58.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
57.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
57.5%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
57.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 11 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 3:1642% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
58.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+7
57.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 7 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
57.7%
Kenny Hill run for 9 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+8
56.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 8 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
56.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
55.7%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
54.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+1
54.5%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
54.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 25 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
53.8%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
53.8%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
55.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+28
52.3%
Brandon Hatfield 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:1454% → 58%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
54.3%
Buechele, Shane deep pass incomplete to Foreman, Armanti, PENALTY TCU defensive pass interference (Texada, R.) 15 yards to the UT44, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
56.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 44 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
59.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-6
59.6%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ranthony Texada for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
57.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+31
57.6%
Mitchell Becker 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:3644% → 65%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
56.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 11 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
53.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 9 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
52.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
53.1%
TCU Penalty, false start (Joseph Noteboom) to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+7
54.3%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+41
34.7%
Kenny Hill run for 41 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 9 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
41.6%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
40.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
41.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
39.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
38.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds , Desmon White returns for no gain to the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
36.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
37.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 12 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
35.0%
Kenny Hill sacked by Edwin Freeman for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+10
36.9%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete, PENALTY UT defensive holding (Davis, Davante) 10 yards to the TCU39, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
33.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
33.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Daniel WalshSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
34.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
36.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
33.4%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+11
33.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 11 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
34.6%
Shane Buechele sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+12
33.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 12 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
34.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
34.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4770% → 71%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
30.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+7
30.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
29.9%
Anderson, D. rush over left end for 18 yards to the TCU41 (Locke III, P.J.), PENALTY TCU offensive holding (Morris, Patrick) 10 yards to the TCU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+6
30.1%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+1
30.4%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+12
30.0%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+47
29.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 47 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
28.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 4 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
29.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
27.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Niko SmallSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
26.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 74 yds, downed at the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 97 yds · 3:4575% → 93%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
25.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+7
25.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 7 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
24.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 15 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
23.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 14 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
22.0%
Foster Sawyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+27
22.7%
Darius Anderson run for 27 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
20.6%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 28 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
9.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey Warrick, broken up by Ridwan IssahakuSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
8.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
8.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Ty SummersSimilar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
8.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 1:2293% → 98%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
7.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 7 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+9
7.1%
Foster Sawyer run for 9 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
1.6%
Darius Anderson run for 70 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
1.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
2.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+15
1.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 15 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
2.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-10
2.0%
Buechele, Shane deep pass complete to Warrick, Jacorey for 50 yards to the TCU9 (Orr, Nick), PENALTY UT offensive holding (Williams, Connor) 10 yards to the UT31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+14
1.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 14 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
2.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jake OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
1.0%
Derrick Green run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+7
0.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 7 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
0.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
1.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jake OliverSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
1.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
1.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian Leonard, broken up by Ranthony TexadaSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
1.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
0.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
0.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 5 yds to the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 32INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
0.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 8 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+10
0.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 10 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
0.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 13 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
0.7%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Niko Small return for no gain to the TCU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:49
Kenny Hill run for 41 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q4 9:18
Trevorris Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
-14
TD · Q4 7:32
Darius Anderson run for 70 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com