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TEX

Texas 45 at Texas Tech 37

TTU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:38 · Michael Barden punt for 31 yds, downed at the Texas 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense+2.0Pregame prior−8.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:57: Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +11.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:33: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +16.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:15: D'Onta Foreman run for 38 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +15.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:49: D'Onta Foreman run for 74 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +15.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:50: Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +13.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:02TTU 4th & 1 at TEX 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:36TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:40TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 40, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:33TEX 4th & 1 at TTU 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−1.0
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:50TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:31TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 36, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:38TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:26TEX 4th & 7 at TTU 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:57TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 27, down 8
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:15TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:36TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:49TTU 4th & 10 at TEX 29, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:50TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:26TTU 4th & 17 at TTU 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−4.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:49TEX 4th & 10 at TTU 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:29TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−2.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:29TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%−3.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:59TEX 4th & 1 at TTU 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−1.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−6.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:11TTU 4th & 3 at TEX 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−2.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:37TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:43TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:30TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:23TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:01TEX Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:57TEX Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:33TTU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:15TEX Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:49TEX Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:50TTU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2334% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
34.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 17 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
34.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 15 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
34.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 11 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
34.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
34.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 12 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
34.3%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
34.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 4 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+5
34.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 0:5463% → 65%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+52
36.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 52 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
36.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 6 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+7
36.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:4136% → 39%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
36.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 11 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
36.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 6 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
36.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-4
36.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Da'Leon Ward) to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+20
36.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 20 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
36.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
36.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+11
36.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
38.5%
Clayton Hatfield 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3262% → 64%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
38.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 18 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
37.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
37.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 6 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
37.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 12 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
37.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 9 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
37.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
37.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
37.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
36.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 3:0737% → 43%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
36.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+12
36.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
37.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 30 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
38.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 12 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
38.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+13
38.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 13 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
38.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
43.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 6 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:4759% → 57%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
40.8%
Foreman, D'Onta rush for 5 yards to the UT30 (Johnson, Jah.), PENALTY UT holding (McMillon, Jake) 10 yards to the UT15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+11
41.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 11 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
40.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
42.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey Warrick, broken up by Jah'Shawn JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
43.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:4443% → 42%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
42.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
42.2%
Stockton, J. rush for 1 yard to the TTU31 (Hill, Holton), PENALTY UT offside (Hager, Breckyn) 5 yards to the TTU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+10
43.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 10 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
43.9%
Patrick Mahomes II run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+4
42.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 4 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
42.8%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Coutee, Keke for 11 yards to the UT44 (Cottrell, Bryce), PENALTY TTU illegal formation (Steele, Terence) 5 yards to the TTU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
42.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
41.9%
Michael Barden punt for 59 yds, downed at the Texas 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FUMBLE TD
16 plays · 99 yds · 4:4354% → 53%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
46.2%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 8 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+4
46.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
45.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
45.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+6
46.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 6 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+55
45.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 55 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
42.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 3 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
42.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
43.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
44.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 2 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
42.6%
Swoopes, Tyrone pass complete to Bluiett, Caleb for 9 yards to the TTU0, PENALTY UT personal foul (Perkins, Kent) 15 yards to the TTU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
0
43.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jake OliverSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
0
43.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Paul Banks IIISimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 0
OPP 24
+100
46.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 23 yds D'Onta Foreman fumbled, forced by Douglas Coleman, recovered by TexTc Douglas Coleman , return for 100 yds, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
50.9%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
51.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Dorian LeonardSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-3
51.6%
Shane Buechele sacked by Kris Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+22
52.3%
Michael Dickson punt for 63 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 22 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
55.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
55.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Jonathan Giles) to the TexTc 28Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
55.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete, broken up by Dylan HainesSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+8
54.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
54.4%
Michael Barden punt for 39 yds , Lil'Jordan Humphrey returns for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3247% → 53%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.9%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
52.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
52.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 5 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+19
50.9%
Kyle Porter run for 19 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
49.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+30
49.4%
Kyle Porter run for 30 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
48.1%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
48.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod Heard, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
47.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2349% → 47%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
48.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
48.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Michael Barden punt for 31 yds, downed at the Texas 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 1:2850% → 62%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
49.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for no gain to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
50.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Paul Banks IIISimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+17
51.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 17 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
47.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
48.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+14
49.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 14 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
45.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 14 yds to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
45.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 3 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
45.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete, broken up by Ondre PipkinsSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
46.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
38.3%
Trent Domingue 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
45.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0360% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
40.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 11 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
39.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
40.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 16 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
37.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
37.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
37.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+8
36.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 8 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
36.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+16
36.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 16 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
36.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2429% → 51%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
28.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
27.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+25
26.8%
Michael Barden run for 25 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
31.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by Jason HallSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
31.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 3 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+25
31.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Malcolm Roach) to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
33.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
33.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
31.8%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
33.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
34.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1857% → 76%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
43.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 12 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
41.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
50
+12
40.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 12 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
24.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 38 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
28.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
28.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+7
27.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 7 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
29.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis III, broken up by DeShon ElliottSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
28.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 6 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-6
29.8%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by D'Andre Christmas for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
27.0%
Michael Barden punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
22.6%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
22.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
22.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Douglas ColemanSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
24.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 71 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
24.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
24.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+14
23.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 14 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
25.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 11 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
26.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+9
27.7%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
50
0
28.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Sheroid EvansSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
50
0
27.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 10
50
+31
26.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 31 yds Derrick Willies fumbled, forced by John Bonney, recovered by Texas Jeffrey McCullochSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:4277% → 92%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
23.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
23.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+74
7.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 74 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0013% → 15%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
13.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+25
13.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 10 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Kris Boyd) to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
14.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 1 yd to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+24
14.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 24 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
16.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan Giles, broken up by John BonneySimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
16.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
15.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick Willies, broken up by DeShon ElliottSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 10
OPP 29
-21
14.8%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Malik Jefferson and Bryce Cottrell for a loss of 21 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
50
+7
6.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+7
6.2%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
6.3%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Texas 37 Kyle Porter fumbled, forced by Jah'Shawn Johnson, recovered by TexTc Ondre Pipkins , return for 23 yds to the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:4913% → 28%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
13.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 10 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Kris Boyd) to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
14.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
28.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
17.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
17.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
17.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
16.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete, broken up by Kolin HillSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
18.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
19.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
19.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-11
18.2%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 13 TEXAS TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (Patrick Mahomes II) to the TexTc 13Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
17.1%
Michael Barden punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
12.1%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
12.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete, broken up by Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
12.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
14.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexTc 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 1:3516% → 14%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
15.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+4
15.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
14.8%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
15.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
15.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 9 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
15.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TexTc 24 Patrick Mahomes II fumbled, recovered by TexTc Patrick Mahomes IISimilar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
13.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
14.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
14.9%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 5 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
14.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
14.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0293% → 97%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
6.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
6.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
2.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
3.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the TexTc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30INT
10 plays · 54 yds · 0:009% → 11%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
8.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 6 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
9.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 4 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
8.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 7 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Paul Boyette Jr.) to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
10.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
10.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
10.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+15
10.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 15 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
13.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
13.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by P.J. Locke IIISimilar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
11.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted, touchback. Kris Boyd return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
7.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:33
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+16.2
TD · Q3 6:15
D'Onta Foreman run for 38 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q4 14:49
D'Onta Foreman run for 74 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
-15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com