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TTU

Texas Tech 27 at TCU 24

TCU
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.1TCU 68.7%Brandon Hatfield 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q2 9:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:33 · Brandon Hatfield 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 60Pregame prior+12.1Home team on offense+2.8Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Time remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:37: Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +19.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:28: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +43.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Patrick Mahomes II run for 15 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +18.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Foster Sawyer pass complete to Desmon White for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +36.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: Clayton Hatfield 37 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +16.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 3:12TCU 4th & 7 at TTU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:33TCU 4th & 6 at TTU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−3.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:49TTU 4th & 10 at TCU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−4.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:10TCU 4th & 3 at TTU 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−1.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:48TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:04TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:17TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:35TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:50TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 41, tied
    Close callWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:39TCU 4th & 10 at TTU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:49TTU 4th & 11 at TCU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:51TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:43TTU 4th & 20 at TTU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−4.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:12TCU 4th & 7 at TTU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−10.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:40TTU 4th & 3 at TCU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−3.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:40TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:23TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:37TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:28TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−3.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1INT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:2532% → 32%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
68.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 10 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
68.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+8
68.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 8 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
68.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
67.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 7 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
67.7%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Aaron Curry for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
67.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted Nick Orr return for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
17 plays · 99 yds · 6:2268% → 72%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
68.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+6
68.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
68.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
67.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+16
67.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 16 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
68.0%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
68.1%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
67.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 7 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
68.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 11 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
68.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
68.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 13 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
68.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 7 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
68.6%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+7
68.3%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
68.6%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.8%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3030% → 29%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26 Da'Leon Ward fumbled, forced by Chris Bradley, recovered by TexTc Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-3
70.8%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 23 Patrick Mahomes II fumbled, recovered by TCU Chris Bradley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2172% → 71%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
72.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 3 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
72.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
71.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
71.4%
Brandon Hatfield 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:3729% → 36%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
70.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 8 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
70.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+12
71.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 12 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
70.4%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
70.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
70.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
70.0%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
70.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+9
70.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 9 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
70.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
69.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+33
64.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 33 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:3767% → 69%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 8 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
67.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 15 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
68.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 15 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
68.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+12
69.1%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
69.0%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+14
69.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 14 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
69.2%
Derrick Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 6Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Darius AndersonSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
68.7%
Brandon Hatfield 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 2:3533% → 37%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 8 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
66.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.1%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joseph Broadnax) to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+12
66.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 12 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
65.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 16 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
64.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
66.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
67.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
63.0%
Clayton Hatfield 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:2867% → 67%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
67.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 37 for a 1ST down lat. to Deante Gray for 7 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
67.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 19 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
68.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
68.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
68.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
67.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 24 yds, downed at the TexTc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1137% → 36%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
63.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+2
63.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 2 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
63.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+2
64.1%
Michael Barden punt for 49 yds , Desmon White returns for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3566% → 65%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
66.3%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
67.2%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
66.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
65.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3338% → 36%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
62.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 2 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
61.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
62.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
63.7%
Michael Barden punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3166% → 64%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
65.5%
Kenny Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
66.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Daniel WalshSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
65.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+15
64.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 15 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:2439% → 43%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
61.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
58.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
57.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 6 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
56.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
56.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:1064% → 63%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
64.3%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
64.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 8 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-2
65.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+18
62.7%
Adam Nunez run for 18 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
66.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Trevorris JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
66.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for no gain to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
64.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
62.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
14 plays · 60 yds · 6:3940% → 42%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
60.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
60.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+20
61.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 20 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
59.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 8 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
57.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for no gain to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+5
58.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
58.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 9 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
55.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 6 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
55.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 6 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
54.6%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
54.8%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
53.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-7
54.3%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Travin Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
58.2%
Michael Barden punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4561% → 65%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.2%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+12
62.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 12 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.0%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
62.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
50
+6
65.1%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
65.6%
Derrick Green run for 5 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
65.3%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted, touchback. Douglas Coleman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5243% → 41%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
56.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 21Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
57.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
58.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 5 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-11
59.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:4367% → 87%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
66.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 9 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
66.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
66.7%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:4122% → 16%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
76.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
79.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-11
81.1%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+4
83.6%
Michael Barden punt for 44 yds , Desmon White returns for 4 yds to the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:2486% → 86%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.6%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Trevorris JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
85.4%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
84.6%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Taj Williams for 11 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
87.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 5
50
0
87.8%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 5
50
+17
87.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Taj Williams for 17 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
88.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+9
88.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
88.6%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
88.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
87.7%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
86.3%
Brandon Hatfield 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 6:3218% → 62%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
81.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 9 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
79.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
83.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 9 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
81.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
80.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
50
+4
80.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+1
80.9%
Demarcus Felton run for 1 yd to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+11
82.9%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 11 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
78.7%
TCU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+4
77.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
78.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
79.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 7 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
79.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
82.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
81.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the TCU 8Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22END OF GAME
13 plays · 24 yds · 1:2057% → 59%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
56.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 34 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 16
OWN 24
+8
55.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
56.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+11
54.3%
Trevorris Johnson run for 11 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
60.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
56.6%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+16
55.7%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Taj Williams for 16 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
61.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
59.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
40.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 9 yds to the TCU 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
40.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
22.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 15 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
64.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Desmon White for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0065% → 58%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.7%
KaVontae Turpin run for 2 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
64.7%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
62.2%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+39
58.2%
Brandon Hatfield 39 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0060% → 74%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
43.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TCU 20Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
26.1%
Clayton Hatfield 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-43.2
TD · OT 0:00
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Desmon White for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
+36.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-26.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com