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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 17 at Texas Tech 69

TTU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:42 · Michael Barden punt for 50 yds, downed at the SFAus 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior+30.4Home team on offense+29.5Score differential+26.5Blowout margin+13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.8Garbage-time factor+10.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:03: Keke Coutee run for 6 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:10: Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:12: Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:15: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 22 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — SFA win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 9:24: Storm Ruiz 43 yd FG GOOD — SFA win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SFA made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:22SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16TTU 4th & 16 at SFA 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:31SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03SFA 4th & 19 at SFA 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00SFA 4th & 3 at SFA 41, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:12SFA 4th & 15 at SFA 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:24SFA 4th & 19 at TTU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:24TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 35, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:19SFA 4th & 1 at TTU 7, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:17TTU 4th & 8 at SFA 13, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:24SFA 4th & 17 at TTU 41, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:42TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 24, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:08TTU 4th & 15 at SFA 25, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:08SFA 4th & 14 at SFA 21, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00TTU 4th & 20 at SFA 40, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:14TTU 4th & 16 at SFA 49, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:07SFA 4th & 8 at SFA 17, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:20TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 29, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:56SFA 4th & 11 at TTU 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:25SFA 4th & 1 at SFA 35, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9SFA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:22TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:10TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:12TTU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:15TTU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:33TTU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:50TTU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:42SFA Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:11SFA Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:25TTU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:10TTU Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 5 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+7
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds to the SFAus 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the SFAus 40 for a 1ST down SFA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Trent Perriman) to the SFAus 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 31
0
99.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+18
98.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 18 yds to the SFAus 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 13 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
98.9%
Joshawa West run for 1 yd to the SFAus 18Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+10
98.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to De'Quann Ruffin for 10 yds to the SFAus 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.9%
Joshawa West run for 1 yd to the SFAus 29Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
98.9%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Robert SylvesterSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+3
98.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Joshawa West for 3 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+30
98.9%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 43 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 30 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
98.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 15
50
+12
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 12 yds to the SFAus 38Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
98.8%
Justin Stockton run for 8 yds to the SFAus 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-6
98.8%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 36Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
98.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
98.8%
Michael Barden punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
98.7%
Joshawa West run for 1 yd to the SFAus 12Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+3
98.7%
Joshawa West run for 3 yds to the SFAus 15Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
98.7%
Zach Conque pass incomplete, broken up by Kolin HillSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+10
98.7%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 40 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 10 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
98.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 14 yds to the SFAus 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
98.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 21 yds to the SFAus 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
98.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds to the SFAus 6Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Keke Coutee run for 6 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
98.7%
Zach Conque pass complete to Robert Sylvester for 1 yd to the SFAus 31Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-1
98.7%
Joshawa West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 30Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-9
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the SFAus 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFAus Zach ConqueSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 19
OWN 21
+2
98.7%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 50 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4699% → 99%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+35
98.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 35 yds to the SFAus 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
98.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 2 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
98.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 1 yd to the SFAus 31Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+12
98.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 12 yds to the SFAus 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
98.7%
Justin Stockton run for 7 yds to the SFAus 12Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
98.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds to the SFAus 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
98.7%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the SFAus 3Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
98.9%
Joshawa West run for 1 yd to the SFAus 24Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+10
98.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Kiki Hill for 10 yds to the SFAus 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Joshawa WestSimilar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Zach Conque pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for 7 yds to the SFAus 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+53
98.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 53 yds to the SFAus 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
99.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 14 yds to the SFAus 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.0%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds to the SFAus 7Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
99.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Kijana Amous run for no gain to the SFAus 25Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Zach Conque pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Robert SylvesterSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.5%
SFA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 20Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+33
99.5%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 35 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 33 yds to the SFAus 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 22 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 12FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Kijana AmousSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 12 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.5%
Zach Conque sacked by Kolin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 35Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Nick JonesSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+20
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 20 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 7 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+21
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Kijana Amous for 21 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 3 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
99.5%
Kijana Amous run for 2 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-14
99.5%
Zach Conque sacked by Kris Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+43
99.4%
Storm Ruiz 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+10
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 10 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+36
99.4%
Michael Barden punt for 39 yds , Trae Hart returns for 36 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:170% → 1%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
99.6%
Joshawa West run for 11 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 11 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
99.5%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for 9 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Joshawa West run for no gain to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Zach Conque run for no gain to the TexTc 7Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
99.2%
Zach Conque run for no gain to the TexTc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
99.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-5
99.6%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Lauderdale, D. (Perriman, Trent), PENALTY TTU holding (Brown, Baylen) 5 yards to the TTU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+33
99.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 33 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+54
99.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 54 yds to the SFAus 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 16INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Zach Conque pass complete to Nick Jones for 6 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.7%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 6 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.7%
Conque, Zach pass incomplete to Liggins, Justic, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Bowman, De'Quan) 11 yards to the SFA48, 1ST DOWN SFA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Zach Conque pass intercepted Keenon Ward return for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17FG
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:16100% → 100%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 11 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
99.7%
Justin Stockton run for 7 yds to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+5
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 5 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 8 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-6
99.7%
Mahomes, P. rush for 3 yards to the TTU35, PENALTY TTU substitution infraction (Brown, Tony) 6 yards to the TTU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+59
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 59 yds to the SFAus 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
99.7%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the SFAus 13Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
99.7%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Lauderdale, D. for no gain to the SFA13, PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass (Murphy, Justin) 5 yards to the SFA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
99.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+5
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 5 yds to the SFAus 13Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
99.8%
Clayton Hatfield 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Kijana Amous run for 1 yd to the SFAus 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 19PUNT
17 plays · 43 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
99.8%
Joshawa West run for 7 yds to the SFAus 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+7
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 7 yds to the SFAus 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for 8 yds to the SFAus 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-1
99.8%
Joshawa West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 37Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 5 yds to the SFAus 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Aaron PiperSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Aaron Piper, broken up by D.J. Polite-BraySimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+10
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Kiki Hill for 10 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Joshawa WestSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Joshawa West for 6 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+8
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Robert Sylvester for 8 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.7%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Justice LigginsSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-7
99.7%
Zach Conque sacked by Broderick Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 17
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for no gain to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:43100% → 100%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 7 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.8%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 10 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 27 yds to the SFAus 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan Cantrell, broken up by Tarrin MitchellSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 4 yds to the SFAus 25Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+11
99.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 11 yds to the SFAus 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 14 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) SFA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
99.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Trae Hart for 17 yds to the SFAus 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
99.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for 13 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Justice LigginsSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
99.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Nick Jones for 13 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass intercepted Thierry Nguema return for no gain to the TexTc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 3 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by Germod WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keenon WardSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Michael Barden punt for 50 yds, downed at the SFAus 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
Zach Conque sacked by Zach Barnes for a loss of 5 yards to the SFAus 30 Zach Conque fumbled, recovered by TexTc Malik Jenkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass intercepted Zack Starnes return for no gain to the SFAus 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.9%
Joshawa West run for 15 yds to the SFAus 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
99.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Aaron Piper for 13 yds to the SFAus 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Joshawa WestSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.9%
Joshawa West run for 13 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
99.9%
Kijana Amous run for 20 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Mitchel ZimmerleSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
Kijana Amous run for 4 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 10 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Tamrick Pace, broken up by D.J. Polite-BraySimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Justice Liggins for 9 yds for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 15 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST down SFA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Kash Knutson for 22 yds to the SFAus 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 7 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 12 yds to the SFAus 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 25Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+43
99.9%
Clayton Hatfield 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Zach Conque pass complete to Robert Sylvester for 1 yd to the SFAus 26Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
SFA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 21Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Zach Conque pass incomplete to Aaron Piper, broken up by Douglas ColemanSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:06100% → 100%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek run for no gain to the SFAus 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
99.9%
Corey Dauphine run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-8
99.9%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Kedrick Harrison for a loss of 8 yards to the SFAus 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Michael Barden punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 29TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Kijana Amous run for 1 yd to the SFAus 26Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass complete to Will Taylor for 11 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass complete to Trae Hart for 17 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.9%
Kijana Amous run for 8 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+38
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 38 yds for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 10 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Quan Shorts for 16 yds to the SFAus 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 4 yds to the SFAus 39Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-10
99.9%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Zack Kanipes for a loss of 10 yards to the SFAus 49Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Michael Barden punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trae Hart at the SFAus 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
Hunter Taylor run for 2 yds to the SFAus 17Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Jonathan SamSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass incomplete to Jonathan SamSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 63 yds, downed at the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 32DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Caleb Woodward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Kash Knutson for 7 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 33MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Jacolby Whitaker run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-3
99.9%
Jacolby Whitaker run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Hunter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
100.0%
Troy Duran 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 34TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tony Brown for 5 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Kash Knutson for 7 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Kash Knutson for 4 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
100.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 7 yds to the SFAus 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
100.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Hunter Rittimann for 9 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
100.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 11 yds to the SFAus 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Kash Knutson for 5 yds to the SFAus 20Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
100.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 6 yds to the SFAus 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tony Brown for 5 yds to the SFAus 9Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 9 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 35DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Jamall Shaw run for 4 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Jamall Shaw run for 4 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
100.0%
Jamall Shaw run for 1 yd to the SFAus 35Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-7
100.0%
Hunter Taylor sacked by Lonzell Gilmore for a loss of 7 yards to the SFAus 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 36TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
100.0%
Corey Dauphine run for 27 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 37END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
100.0%
Jamall Shaw run for 1 yd to the SFAus 28Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-5
100.0%
Jamall Shaw run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFAus 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:12
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 1:10
Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 6:03
Keke Coutee run for 6 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com