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SDST

South Dakota State 41 at TCU 59

TCU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSDST aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:26 · Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds , Marquise Lewis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+22.0Home team on offense+12.2Garbage-time factor+8.3Score differential+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:26: Taryn Christion pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK) — SDST win probability +7.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:40: Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +4.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:04: Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 34 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK) — SDST win probability +8.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:57: Chase Vinatieri 37 yd FG GOOD — SDST win probability +7.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:36: Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +9.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:08SDST 4th & 12 at TCU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:13SDST 4th & 19 at SDST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:10SDST 4th & 8 at TCU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:51TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:19SDST 4th & 3 at SDST 28, up 10
    Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:41SDST 4th & 8 at SDST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:26TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:42SDST 4th & 21 at SDST 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:27SDST 4th & 21 at SDST 9, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SDST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:25TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:34SDST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:55SDST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:37TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:49SDST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:20TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:26SDST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:40TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:54TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:04SDST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:36TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:07TCU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:401% → 1%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
98.9%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 12 yds to the SDkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
98.9%
Taryn Christion run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 21Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+18
98.8%
Brady Mengarelli run for 18 yds to the SDkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.8%
Brady Mengarelli run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 41Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+18
98.7%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 18 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.6%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Dallas GoedertSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
98.6%
Taryn Christion run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
98.6%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Jake Wieneke, broken up by Nick OrrSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
98.6%
Brady Hale punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3099% → 99%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
98.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 7 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
98.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 8 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
98.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 10 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
98.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 9 yds to the SDkSt 46Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
98.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Cole HuntSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
98.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+22
98.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 22 yds to the SDkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
98.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 3 yds to the SDkSt 15Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
98.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:322% → 2%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Brady Mengarelli run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 29Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Taryn Christion run for no gain to the SDkSt 29Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
98.3%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 23 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.2%
Taryn Christion run for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-10
98.2%
SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SDkSt 45Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 17
OWN 45
-10
98.2%
Taryn Christion sacked by Aaron Curry for a loss of 10 yards to the SDkSt 35Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 27
OWN 35
+8
98.2%
Taryn Christion run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 43Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
98.1%
Brady Hale punt for 46 yds, downed at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4598% → 98%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
98.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 5 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-2
98.0%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
98.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Deante GraySimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+8
97.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 40 yds , Marquise Lewis returns for 8 yds to the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 5FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:002% → 3%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
97.9%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 10 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
97.8%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 28 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.7%
Brady Mengarelli run for no gain to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.6%
Taryn Christion run for no gain to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.6%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Marquise LewisSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
97.3%
Chase Vinatieri 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6INT
12 plays · 49 yds · 2:1797% → 97%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
97.4%
KaVontae Turpin run for 33 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
97.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 8 yds to the SDkSt 29Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
97.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
97.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 4 yds to the SDkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
97.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 21 yds to the SDkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 2 yds to the SDkSt 2Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.3%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY SODAKOTAST pass interference (Brown, Jordan) 1 yards to the SODAKOTAST1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q2 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.3%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the SDkSt 1Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
97.2%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Porter, Emanuel) 15 yards to the SODAKOTAST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
-5
97.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Cordel Iwuagwu) to the SDkSt 21Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
0
97.1%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Makiah Slade return for no gain to the SDkSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 99 yds · 1:573% → 4%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
97.0%
Taryn Christion run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 2Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+8
96.8%
Isaac Wallace run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 10Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+3
96.8%
Taryn Christion run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
95.7%
Isaac Wallace run for 87 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
95.8%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Jordan Brown return for 11 yds to the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 1:215% → 7%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
95.2%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 12 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
94.9%
Brady Mengarelli run for 3 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
93.3%
Taryn Christion run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:5793% → 91%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
92.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
92.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 16 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
92.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
92.1%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
91.8%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 47Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
91.3%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (Adam Nunez) to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
91.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marquise Lewis at the SDkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:219% → 8%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
91.1%
Brady Mengarelli run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 12Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
90.7%
Brady Mengarelli run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 18Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
90.5%
Taryn Christion run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
89.6%
Isaac Wallace run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 28Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Isaac Wallace run for no gain to the SDkSt 28Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
88.4%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Jake WienekeSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+81
92.2%
Brady Hale punt for 53 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 81 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:348% → 9%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.6%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Brady Mengarelli for 4 yds to the SDkSt 29Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-16
90.9%
Taryn Christion run for a loss of 16 yards to the SDkSt 13 Taryn Christion fumbled, forced by Aaron Curry, recovered by TCU Montrel WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3393% → 95%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
92.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 8Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
92.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 4Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
94.8%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:356% → 11%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
94.0%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 14 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
93.4%
Christion, Taryn pass incomplete to Wieneke, Jake, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Texada, Ranthony) 15 yards to the TCU34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SODAKOTAST.Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
92.9%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Brady Mengarelli for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
92.7%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Connor LandbergSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
88.8%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 31 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 0:4491% → 93%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+23
90.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 23 yds to the SDkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
91.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 18 yds to the SDkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
91.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 4 yds to the SDkSt 21Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
91.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 6 yds to the SDkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
91.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
91.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj Williams, broken up by Zy MosleySimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+32
92.7%
Ryan Graf 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
90.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2992% → 95%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
91.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel Porter, broken up by Dallas BrownSimilar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
91.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 10 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
91.9%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+60
95.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 60 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:476% → 16%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
94.2%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 35 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.3%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Jake WienekeSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
93.2%
Isaac Wallace run for 4 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+7
93.1%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Adam Anderson for 7 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
92.1%
Isaac Wallace run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
91.8%
Brady Mengarelli run for 5 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
92.2%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Connor Landberg for 6 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
84.4%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:3888% → 93%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
88.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 21 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
89.5%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 46Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+10
89.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 10 yds to the SDkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
89.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 15 yds to the SDkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
89.6%
Derrick Green run for 15 yds to the SDkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
89.5%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 3Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.1%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the SDkSt 3Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
93.3%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Offside (Alec Dunham) to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:298% → 8%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
91.8%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Dallas Goedert for 7 yds to the SDkSt 29Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
91.1%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Dallas GoedertSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
91.5%
Taryn Christion run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDkSt 24 Taryn Christion fumbled, recovered by SDkSt Taryn ChristionSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+1
92.2%
Brady Hale punt for 49 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 1 yd to the TCU 27 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (Ty Slanina) to the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 1:3793% → 97%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
92.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 6 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
92.3%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
92.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 20 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
93.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 16 yds to the SDkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
93.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 12 yds to the SDkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
93.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 15Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+9
93.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the SDkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.9%
Kenny Hill run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:354% → 13%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
96.0%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Connor Landberg for 9 yds to the SDkSt 30Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
95.5%
Isaac Wallace run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
95.6%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Isaac Wallace for 12 yds to the SDkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
95.3%
Christion, Taryn pass incomplete to Goedert, Dallas, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Orr, Nick) 15 yards to the TCU39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SODAKOTAST.Similar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
95.2%
Brady Mengarelli run for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
86.9%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 34 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:2893% → 92%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
93.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
92.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel Porter, broken up by Zy MosleySimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-10
92.5%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to Williams, Taj for 19 yards to the TCU45, PENALTY TCU holding (Pryor, Matt) 10 yards to the TCU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 20
OWN 16
0
92.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q4 14:26
4TH & 20
OWN 16
+44
91.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds , Marquise Lewis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 24FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:2011% → 19%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+52
88.9%
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 52 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
87.7%
Brady Mengarelli run for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
87.2%
SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Taryn Christion) to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-8
87.2%
Taryn Christion sacked by James McFarland for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
89.4%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Jake WienekeSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
81.5%
Chase Vinatieri 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 3:1084% → 96%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
84.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
84.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+13
82.9%
Kenny Hill run for 13 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
84.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
83.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-25
85.2%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 11 yards to the SODAKOTAST49, PENALTY TCU holding (Collins, Aviante) 25 yards to the TCU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
83.1%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to Slanina, Ty for 23 yards to the TCU38, PENALTY TCU personal foul (Collins, Aviante) 15 yards to the TCU15, NO PLAY, PENALTY SODAKOTAST personal foul 15 yards to the TCU30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
83.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
84.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Derrick GreenSimilar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+15
83.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 15 yds to the SDkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
86.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 3 yds to the SDkSt 46Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
95.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:405% → 4%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
95.3%
Taryn Christion sacked by Aaron Curry and Denzel Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the SDkSt 14Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
95.3%
Zach Lujan pass incomplete to Jake WienekeSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
95.6%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Connor LandbergSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
95.7%
Brady Hale punt for 32 yds, downed at the SDkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2596% → 99%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
95.7%
Deante Gray run for 8 yds to the SDkSt 38Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
95.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 15 yds to the SDkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
95.9%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 21Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
96.3%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 20Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+8
96.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 8 yds to the SDkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
96.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 1 yd to the SDkSt 11Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
96.2%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 8Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
99.1%
Kenny Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Jake Wieneke, broken up by Denzel JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-11
98.6%
Taryn Christion sacked by Chris Bradley for a loss of 11 yards to the SDkSt 9 SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taryn Christion) to the SDkSt 9Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 21
OWN 9
0
98.7%
Taryn Christion pass incomplete to Dallas GoedertSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 21
OWN 9
+10
98.7%
Brady Hale punt for 48 yds , Desmon White returns for 10 yds to the TCU 19 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Orr) to the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.1%
Darius Anderson run for 10 yds to the SDkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.1%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the SDkSt 38Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+21
99.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 21 yds to the SDkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 15Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
99.3%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 9Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
99.3%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:36
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q3 0:04
Taryn Christion pass complete to Jake Wieneke for 34 yds for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK)
-8.3
FG · Q4 11:57
Chase Vinatieri 37 yd FG GOOD
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com