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OKST

Oklahoma State 31 at TCU 6

TCU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:19 · Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Home team on offense−22.2Score differential−13.5Pregame prior+3.1Garbage-time factor−6.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:19: Chris Carson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +16.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:25: Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +17.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:10: Timeout OKLAHOMA ST, clock 00:10 — OKST win probability +6.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:54: OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (Michael Wilson) to the OKSt 3 — OKST win probability +6.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:14: Mason Rudolph run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +5.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00OKST 4th & 3 at TCU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:27OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:41TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TCU 4th & 5 at OKST 48, down 1
    Close callPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:41OKST 4th & 8 at TCU 41, up 1
    Close callPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:35TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:57OKST 4th & 7 at TCU 40, up 1
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:58TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:34OKST 4th & 5 at TCU 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:07TCU 4th & 1 at OKST 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00TCU 4th & 11 at OKST 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:19TCU 4th & 1 at OKST 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−4.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 1 at OKST 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−3.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−13.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:00OKST 4th & 11 at TCU 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:00TCU 4th & 6 at OKST 22, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:34TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:42OKST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:19OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:25OKST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:14OKST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
59.5%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Justice HillSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+14
59.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 14 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
59.5%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+10
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 10 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.5%
Chris Carson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
59.5%
Justice Hill run for 19 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 8 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-1
59.5%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
59.6%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+7
59.5%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
59.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
59.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
59.5%
Chris Carson run for 20 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
59.1%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Josh Carraway and Chris Bradley for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 16
OWN 37
0
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+2
59.6%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 14
OWN 39
-5
59.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 52 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
59.3%
Hicks, Kyle rush for no gain to the TCU4 (Owens, Jarrell), PENALTY OSU face mask (Owens, Jarrell) 15 yards to the TCU19, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
59.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 9 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
59.8%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+11
59.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 11 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
59.7%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+4
59.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
59.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+48
59.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 48 yds , Barry Sanders returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 6 Barry Sanders fumbled, recovered by TCU Paul WhitmillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3861% → 64%
Q1 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
60.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:4738% → 44%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
62.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 7 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+9
61.5%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
61.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Justice Hill for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
50
+15
61.3%
Chris Carson run for 15 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
60.8%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+30
60.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 30 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
60.7%
Chris Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 3Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Zac VeatchSimilar
Q1 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:4258% → 59%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
58.3%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+24
58.2%
Kenny Hill run for 24 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
59.7%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
58.7%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+8
57.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 8 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
58.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:2043% → 42%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+32
57.4%
Justice Hill run for 32 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
56.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+15
57.5%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Lacy, Chris, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Gladney, Jeff) 15 yards to the TCU43, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
56.2%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
56.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris Carson, broken up by Travin HowardSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
56.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
57.6%
Zach Sinor punt for 34 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for no gain to the TCU 4 KaVontae Turpin fumbled, recovered by TCU KaVontae TurpinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
58.4%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+4
58.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
57.7%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
57.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds, downed at the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
55.6%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
55.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
57.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 29 yds, downed at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
58.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 11 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
58.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
58.9%
Kenny Hill sacked by Justin Phillips and Motekiai Maile for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
57.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
57.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds, downed at the OKSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:4745% → 48%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
55.3%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Joseph Broadnax and Travin Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+9
56.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
55.2%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
54.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Rennie ChildsSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
54.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 6 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
54.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 6 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
53.6%
Chris Carson run for 8 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
52.9%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
52.9%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+3
53.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 3 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-4
55.1%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
51.9%
Ben Grogan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:2754% → 55%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.2%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
54.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 16 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
55.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+12
54.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 12 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+40
57.2%
Kenny Hill run for 40 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
58.7%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.2%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.0%
Kyle Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
51.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.3%
KaVontae Turpin run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
53.0%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
50.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 23 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
54.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
55.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-8
54.6%
Kenny Hill sacked by Tralund Webber for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
50.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:3851% → 72%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+29
49.3%
Justice Hill run for 29 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
47.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 2 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+14
46.5%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive holding (Chris Bradley) to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
45.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
44.8%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
44.4%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
45.7%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
44.4%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
27.7%
Chris Carson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:0031% → 34%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
30.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 1 yd to the TCU 11Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+7
30.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 7 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+14
29.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 14 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
31.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 14 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
32.8%
Kenny Hill run for 16 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
33.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
33.8%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Lenzy Pipkins return for no gain to the OKSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:3471% → 89%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
28.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+63
28.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 63 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.3%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:1916% → 13%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
16.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Motekiai Maile) to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
17.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 6 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+7
17.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 7 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
18.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 5 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
18.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
18.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the OKSt 36Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
18.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
18.9%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+12
17.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 12 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+11
18.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 11 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
19.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 8 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
19.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the OKSt 5Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
12.8%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the OKSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
12.6%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the OKSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 3:4094% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
6.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (Michael Wilson) to the OKSt 3Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 13
OWN 3
0
6.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James Washington, broken up by Ranthony TexadaSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 3
0
6.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 3
+25
6.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 25 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
6.2%
Chris Carson run for 24 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
5.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
5.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+15
5.7%
Justice Hill run for 15 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
5.5%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the TCU 21 Chris Carson fumbled, forced by Travin Howard, recovered by OKSt Brad LundbladeSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+9
5.5%
Chris Carson run for 9 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.4%
Mason Rudolph run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
0.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 7 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
0.5%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Justin Phillips return for no gain to the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
0.4%
James Washington run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
0.4%
Mason Rudolph run for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+9
0.4%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
0.4%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Washington, J., PENALTY OSU illegal formation (Salako, Victor) 5 yards to the TCU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+1
0.4%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 14
OPP 30
0
0.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James Washington, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+3
0.4%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+43
0.3%
Ben Grogan 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 51 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Isaiah Graham run for no gain to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
0.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+11
0.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
0.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+2
0.4%
Foster Sawyer run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
0.4%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
0.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 21 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
0.5%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
0.5%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
0.5%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Daniel WalshSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 6
OPP 22
0
0.4%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Deante GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
0.2%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+23
0.2%
Justice Hill run for 23 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
0.2%
Chris Carson run for 11 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
0.2%
Chris Carson run for 19 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
0.2%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-1
0.2%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+5
0.2%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:25
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q3 8:19
Chris Carson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-16.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:10
Timeout OKLAHOMA ST, clock 00:10
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com