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TTU

Texas Tech 44 at Oklahoma State 45

OKST
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.6OKST 85.1%Ben Grogan 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 28 - HOME 38 · Q3 2:04
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:04 · Ben Grogan 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+7.8Home team on offense+14.6Score differential+2.0Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Travis Bruffy for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +13.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:25: Chris Carson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +12.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:24: Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +17.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 0:06: Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 82 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +16.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:44: Quinton White Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED) — TTU win probability +24.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:50OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:10TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:08TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:08TTU 4th & 8 at OKST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−1.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:25TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:04OKST 4th & 3 at TTU 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%−0.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TTU 4th & 3 at OKST 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−2.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:23TTU 4th & 9 at OKST 9, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:13OKST 4th & 17 at TTU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:14OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:20OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:14TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:21OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:23TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:55OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:44TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:27TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:25OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:24TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:06OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:44TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−4.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.5%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
76.5%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
76.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.5%
Michael Barden punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3176% → 77%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
50
+12
76.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 12 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.3%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
76.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 12 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
76.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.6%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Tralund Webber for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
76.7%
Michael Barden punt for 44 yds, downed at the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
76.8%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Jordyn Brooks for a loss of 11 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 21
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+4
76.5%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+2
76.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 53 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.7%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
76.8%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
76.8%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
76.9%
Michael Barden punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:5577% → 80%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+33
77.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 33 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
77.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
77.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 10 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.2%
Mason Rudolph run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0621% → 24%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
79.2%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
79.2%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Cantrell, Dylan for 9 yards to the TTU32 (Phillips,Justin), PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TTU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+16
79.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 16 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
79.0%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+13
80.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 3 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Kirk Tucker) to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
79.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 15 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
79.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
79.2%
Reginald Davis III run for 5 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+15
79.4%
Demarcus Felton run for 15 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
79.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 3 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+7
79.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 7 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5377% → 83%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.3%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
77.7%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
77.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 13 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
78.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 32 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
78.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 18 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.3%
Mason Rudolph run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.9%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5819% → 25%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
81.2%
Demarcus Felton run for 6 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
81.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 24 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
80.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
80.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+4
80.5%
Demarcus Felton run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
80.1%
Justin Stockton run for 10 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
80.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds to the OKSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
80.1%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the OKSt 4Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2878% → 85%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan Seales, broken up by Jah'Shawn JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.6%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+38
77.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 38 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
79.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 1 yd to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
79.0%
Chris Carson run for 8 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
78.6%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
79.1%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
85.1%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:1117% → 24%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 10 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.1%
Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
82.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
83.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
83.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 9 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+15
82.2%
Felton, Dem. rush for no gain to the OSU42 (Averette, D.), PENALTY OSU face mask (Richards, Ramon) 15 yards to the OSU27, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
81.7%
Demarcus Felton run for 6 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-3
81.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 21 Patrick Mahomes II fumbled, recovered by TexTc Patrick Mahomes IISimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+6
82.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 6 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
81.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
81.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 9 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
83.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
82.7%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the OKSt 3Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.3%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
79.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
80.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 7 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
80.6%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+19
80.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds Jalen McCleskey fumbled, forced by Paul Banks III, recovered by TexTc Kris Williams , return for 19 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:3423% → 38%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for no gain to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+29
77.8%
Demarcus Felton run for 29 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
76.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 12 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
76.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 5Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Travis Bruffy for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
69.5%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 15Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-3
69.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
68.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 16 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
69.4%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+3
68.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 3 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
67.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kolin Hill at the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
64.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+3
64.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
65.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 2
OWN 22
+15
66.4%
Michael Barden pass complete to Talor Nunez for 15 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
63.3%
Demarcus Felton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
62.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 12 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
61.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 5 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-5
60.8%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Batson, Cameron for 21 yards to the OSU22, PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass (Steele, Terence) 5 yards to the OSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
61.4%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
62.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
64.4%
Michael Barden punt for 38 yds, downed at the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 1:3666% → 83%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
65.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+31
65.6%
Justice Hill run for 31 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+22
67.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 22 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
69.8%
Justice Hill run for 16 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
70.7%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
83.4%
Chris Carson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.6%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
79.3%
Michael Barden punt for 57 yds, downed at the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:3681% → 85%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
81.1%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+20
81.5%
Rennie Childs run for 20 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
82.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
83.3%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-1
83.2%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+22
82.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 22 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
83.5%
Chris Carson run for 8 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-1
83.5%
Mason Rudolph run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 10Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
82.6%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the TexTc 10Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
85.1%
Ben Grogan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:4016% → 37%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 5 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
83.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 6 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
83.7%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Willies, D., PENALTY OSU pass interference (Lampkin, Ashton) 15 yards to the TTU46, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
82.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Mason Reed for 24 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+23
80.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Mason Reed for 23 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
86.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 82 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22FG
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:3714% → 19%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
86.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 14 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
85.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 13 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
84.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 1 yd to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-5
84.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Terence Steele) to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+15
86.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 15 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
83.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 2 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
84.2%
Quinton White Jr. run for 5 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+4
85.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 4 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
82.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
82.6%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Batson, Cameron, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Flowers, Tre) 14 yards to the OSU21, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
82.2%
Cameron Batson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
82.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke Coutee, broken up by Tre FlowersSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Quinton White Jr., broken up by Ashton LampkinSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
81.2%
Clayton Hatfield 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
79.0%
Quinton White Jr. run for 3 yds to the OKSt 43 Quinton White Jr. fumbled, forced by Justin Phillips, recovered by OKSt Vincent TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
88.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 44 lat. to James Washington for 6 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+15
88.4%
Justice Hill run for 15 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
89.0%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Luke Stice for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
88.2%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 17
OPP 48
0
87.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
86.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25TD
16 plays · 88 yds · 4:5414% → 46%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
86.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+11
86.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
85.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 4 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
84.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 7 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
84.5%
Quinton White Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-9
85.9%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Justin Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+23
87.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 23 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+33
82.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 33 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
79.4%
Quinton White Jr. run for 3 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
79.4%
Quinton White Jr. run for 4 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+11
81.3%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Batson, Cameron, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Flowers, Tre) 11 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
79.4%
Quinton White Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 5Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 4 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.4%
Quinton White Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:3575% → 83%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
75.4%
Chris Carson run for 17 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
81.5%
Justice Hill run for 12 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
79.9%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
81.7%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
80.3%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
83.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:44
Quinton White Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED)
-24.8
TD · Q3 0:24
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-17.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com