2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreSELA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:45 · Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 22 yds to the SELa 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:10: Jhajuan Seales 24 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:24: Barry Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:41: Kaelyn Henderson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jonathon Tatum KICK) — SELA win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:38: Ramon Richards 9 Yd Fumble Return (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SELA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 8:46SELA 4th & 13 at SELA 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 5:34SELA 4th & 2 at SELA 30, down 21Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:12SELA 4th & 6 at SELA 17, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q1 0:29SELA 4th & 10 at SELA 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 13:45OKST 4th & 7 at SELA 40, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%37% to convertField goal99.5%−0.134% to makePunt99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:42OKST 4th & 7 at SELA 15, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%83% to makePunt99.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 9:55SELA 4th & 6 at SELA 45, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 8:11OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 6, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q2 2:18OKST 4th & 14 at SELA 45, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.119% to convertField goal99.1%−<0.125% to makePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q2 0:00SELA 4th & 25 at SELA 7, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 11:08SELA 4th & 7 at OKST 17, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%80% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:19OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 26, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 7:14SELA 4th & 6 at OKST 42, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%40% to convertField goal0.1%−0.130% to makePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 0:52SELA 4th & 6 at SELA 29, down 45Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:50OKST 4th & 5 at SELA 11, up 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%87% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:58SELA 4th & 18 at SELA 39, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:47SELA 4th & 9 at OKST 37, down 54Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.0%40% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SELA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:15OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:50OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:10OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:24OKST Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:41SELA Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:38OKST Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:40OKST Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:13OKST Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:00OKST Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOKSTDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD7 plays · 23 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 5 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
99.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 2 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 2DOWNS4 plays · 14 yds · 0:120% → 0%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
D'Shaie Landor run for no gain to the SELa 36 D'Shaie Landor fumbled, recovered by OKStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3TD4 plays · 36 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 15 yds to the SELa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:591% → 1%
Q1 10:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.5%
D'Shaie Landor sacked by Jordan Burton for a loss of 5 yards to the SELa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD3 plays · 34 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
SELADrive 6PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:211% → 1%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
99.5%
D'Shaie Landor pass complete to Javon Conner for 12 yds to the SELa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-5
99.5%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the SELa 21Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Jim Speights punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
SELADrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q1 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+57
99.7%
Jim Speights punt for 41 yds , Barry Sanders returns for 57 yds to the SELa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
SELADrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:410% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11FG10 plays · 46 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+12
99.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 12 yds to the SELa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 6 yds to the SELa 37Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+22
99.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 22 yds to the SELa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 12PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:150% → 1%
Q2 9:55
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Jim Speights punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13DOWNS3 plays · -11 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
SELADrive 14TD5 plays · 51 yds · 2:020% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 2:4999% → 99%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.4%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Jeff Carr for 4 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 16PUNT8 plays · -3 yds · 1:491% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · 0 yds · 0:131% → 0%
SELADrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 57 yds · 2:550% → 0%
Q3 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+55
99.9%
Justin Alo pass complete to Brandon Acker for 55 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q3 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-10
99.9%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Lee Spight for a loss of 10 yards to the OKSt 18Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 8 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+19
99.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 39 yds , Javon Tillman returns for 19 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 20DOWNS5 plays · -4 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q3 7:14
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-8
99.9%
Justin Alo sacked by Jarrell Owens for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD9 plays · 50 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+11
99.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 11 yds to the SELa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
99.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 7 yds to the SELa 14Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
99.9%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Caleb Young for a loss of 5 yards to the SELa 16Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 16 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · 10 yds · 0:140% → 0%
OKSTDrive 23TD3 plays · 19 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
SELADrive 24DOWNS6 plays · -9 yds · 0:580% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25FG4 plays · 5 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 26PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:320% → 0%
OKSTDrive 27TD16 plays · 90 yds · 8:42100% → 100%
Q4 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
100.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Obi Obialo for 1 yd to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+10
100.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 10 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+9
100.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Keenen Brown for 9 yds to the SELa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
100.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Terry Tillman for 13 yds to the SELa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
100.0%
Taylor Cornelius run for 15 yds to the SELa 2 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SELa 12Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 5
OPP 12
-10
100.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SELa 22Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+17
100.0%
Taylor Cornelius pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 17 yds to the SELa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Taylor Cornelius run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 28DOWNS9 plays · 52 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+24
100.0%
Justin Alo run for 9 yds to the SELa 20 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SELa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
100.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SELa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
100.0%
Justin Alo pass complete to Javon Conner for 13 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 29Uncategorized1 play · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:38
Ramon Richards 9 Yd Fumble Return (Ben Grogan Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q2 5:41
Kaelyn Henderson run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jonathon Tatum KICK)
-0.4
TD · Q1 8:10
Jhajuan Seales 24 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)
+0.1