Try the model
OKST

Oklahoma State 20 at Oklahoma 38

OU
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:39 · Chris Carson run for 16 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+16.0Score differential+5.8Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:05: Chris Carson 6 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +9.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:28: Mason Rudolph 6 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +11.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:27: Geno Lewis 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +11.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:56: Samaje Perine 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +7.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:35: Joe Mixon run for 79 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +9.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:17OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27OU 4th & 9 at OU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:49OKST 4th & 1 at OU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:05OU 4th & 9 at OU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:16OKST 4th & 2 at OU 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:20OU 4th & 9 at OU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:45OKST 4th & 13 at OU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:41OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:04OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:43OU 4th & 16 at OU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:35OU 4th & 5 at OU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:45OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:00OKST 4th & 10 at OU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−5.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:39OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:49OKST 4th & 2 at OU 21, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:28OKST 4th & 4 at OU 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:52OU 4th & 1 at OKST 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:46OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:05OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:28OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:56OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:21OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:35OU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:3715% → 16%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
84.7%
Justice Hill run for 18 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
84.6%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Zach Sinor punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4085% → 84%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
84.5%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-3
84.2%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 15 Samaje Perine fumbled, forced by Jordan Burton, recovered by Okla Dimitri FlowersSimilar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+2
84.1%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
83.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2416% → 17%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 4 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
83.6%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 2
50
+1
83.4%
Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
83.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3383% → 83%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
83.4%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Okla 13Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-6
83.3%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Jordan Burton for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 7Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+6
82.9%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
82.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:4218% → 19%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
82.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 13 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
82.2%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
82.0%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+26
81.8%
Chris Carson run for 26 yds to the Okla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
81.4%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the Okla 5Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
81.1%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the Okla 1Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
81.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 2 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OKSt Mason RudolphSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
80.7%
Ben Grogan 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4480% → 79%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
80.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 18 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.5%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 36Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.0%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Okla 37Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
79.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede Westbrook, broken up by Justin PhillipsSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
79.2%
Austin Seibert punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1920% → 21%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
79.8%
Justice Hill run for 32 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
78.6%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
78.3%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-10
77.8%
Hill, Justice rush for 14 yards to the OKLAHOMA17, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Crabtree, Zachary) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
78.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskey, broken up by Jordan EvansSimilar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
79.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 29 yds, downed at the Okla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 0:5278% → 81%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
78.1%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+20
77.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 20 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
81.1%
Dede Westbrook 69 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5320% → 19%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
80.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
80.6%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
80.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
81.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:5381% → 83%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+67
80.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 67 yds to the OKSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
81.7%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the OKSt 2Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.5%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
81.0%
Mayfield, Baker pass complete to Lewis, Geno for 1 yard to the OKLAST0, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Westbrook, Dede) 15 yards to the OKLAST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
80.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Joe MixonSimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
82.8%
Austin Seibert 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2618% → 17%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.0%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
83.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 5 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
83.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0783% → 82%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
82.9%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 27Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+9
82.7%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
83.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 4 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
84.0%
Joe Mixon run for 13 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
84.2%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 47 Joe Mixon fumbled, recovered by Okla Baker MayfieldSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
82.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jeffery Mead, broken up by Ramon RichardsSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
82.2%
Austin Seibert punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:3017% → 30%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
83.0%
Hill, Justice rush for loss of 3 yards to the OKLAST7, PENALTY OKLAHOMA face mask (Beal, Emmanuel) 15 yards to the OKLAST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.9%
Mason Rudolph run for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
81.9%
Justice Hill run for 10 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
81.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 44 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
80.1%
Chris Carson run for 6 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
70.4%
Chris Carson 6 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1476% → 74%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
75.7%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 12Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
75.6%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 13Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
74.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jordan SmallwoodSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
73.8%
Austin Seibert punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:5730% → 43%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
50
+2
70.3%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
70.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+9
70.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 9 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
69.6%
Chris Carson run for 12 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
68.3%
Justice Hill run for 12 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
68.1%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 18 Mason Rudolph fumbled, recovered by OKSt Mason Rudolph , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+12
68.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
56.7%
Mason Rudolph 6 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 0:4462% → 77%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
62.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 7 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+12
63.3%
Samaje Perine run for 12 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
63.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 42 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
66.9%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
77.3%
Geno Lewis 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
50
+5
67.9%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the Okla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:4774% → 84%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+66
73.8%
Samaje Perine run for 66 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
76.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
76.6%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
75.6%
Mayfield, Baker rush for no gain to the OKLAST6, PENALTY OKLAST face mask (Maile, Motekiai) 3 yards to the OKLAST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.2%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.0%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.5%
Samaje Perine 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0019% → 17%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
81.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
81.5%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 22Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
82.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
82.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 58 yds, downed at the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:1682% → 93%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.0%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 21Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
81.9%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Basquine, Nick, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Averette, Devante) 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.3%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
83.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to A.D. MillerSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+12
82.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 12 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
84.5%
Joe Mixon run for 9 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
84.9%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the OKSt 49Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
85.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
85.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 6 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+10
85.8%
Samaje Perine run for 10 yds to the OKSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
86.0%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
86.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jordan Smallwood for 12 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
85.9%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
92.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21FG
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:069% → 12%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+54
91.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 54 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
89.1%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
89.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+21
90.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 21 yds to the Okla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.9%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the Okla 13Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
88.9%
Mason Rudolph run for 4 yds to the Okla 9Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-4
89.7%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 13Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
87.6%
Ben Grogan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22FUMBLE
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:1789% → 91%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
89.1%
Samaje Perine run for 19 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
90.6%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
90.6%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
90.5%
Samaje Perine run for 21 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
90.5%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-15
90.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Orlando Brown) to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+7
90.5%
Samaje Perine run for 7 yds to the OKSt 18 Samaje Perine fumbled, forced by Tre Flowers, recovered by OKSt Kenneth Edison-McGruderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 3:3211% → 11%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
88.7%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+6
87.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 6 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.0%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
88.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskey OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zachary Crabtree) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
89.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 9 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+16
90.7%
Chris Carson run for 16 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
89.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 15 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
87.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris CarsonSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
88.5%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the Okla 29Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+8
89.9%
Chris Carson run for 8 yds to the Okla 21Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
89.5%
Ben Grogan 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
98.8%
Joe Mixon run for 79 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:494% → 3%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
96.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 7 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-1
96.2%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 37Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
96.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
96.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26END OF GAME
13 plays · 59 yds · 8:0899% → 100%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.9%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
99.0%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
99.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jordan Smallwood for 9 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.2%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
99.2%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.3%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
99.4%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+12
99.4%
Samaje Perine run for 12 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.5%
Samaje Perine run for 7 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
99.5%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+9
99.5%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:28
Mason Rudolph 6 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)
-11.6
TD · Q2 0:27
Geno Lewis 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
+11.2
TD · Q2 5:05
Chris Carson 6 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com