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OU

Oklahoma 66 at Texas Tech 59

TTU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.8TTU 21.3%Austin Seibert 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 17 · Q2 6:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:14 · Austin Seibert 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior−22.3Home team on offense−6.6Garbage-time factor−1.5Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:37: Jonathan Giles 23 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +16.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:57: Patrick Mahomes II 22 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +17.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 9:15: Joe Mixon 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield Pass to Dede Westbrook for Two-Point Conversion) — OU win probability +15.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:56: Keke Coutee 56 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +17.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:38: Cameron Batson 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick) — TTU win probability +19.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 3:08OU 4th & 6 at TTU 40, up 6
    Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:06TTU 4th & 9 at OU 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:46OU 4th & 2 at OU 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43TTU 4th & 1 at OU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:14OU 4th & 6 at TTU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:03OU 4th & 1 at TTU 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−1.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:08TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:21TTU 4th & 2 at OU 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−1.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:23OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:28OU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:23TTU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:31OU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:06TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:37TTU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:17OU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:51OU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:33TTU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 7:59OU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 4:10TTU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 1:36OU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 12:57TTU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 9:15OU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.2%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 7:56TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 5:03OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
  17. Q4 1:38TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2282% → 82%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
17.9%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 24Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
18.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to A.D. Miller for 7 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
18.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 13 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
18.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to A.D. MillerSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
18.4%
Joe Mixon 56 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 0:4819% → 19%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
18.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+14
18.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 14 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
19.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 13 yds Jonathan Giles fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Beal, recovered by Okla Jordan EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:3281% → 82%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
18.9%
Joe Mixon run for 11 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
18.9%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+49
18.3%
Dede Westbrook 49 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 3:5118% → 21%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
18.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
18.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+31
18.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 31 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
18.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Terence Steele) to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+19
18.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 19 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
18.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 6 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+9
19.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
19.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Mason Reed for 8 yds to the Okla 16Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
19.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
19.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
19.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 9 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-1
19.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 4Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
20.9%
Da'Leon Ward 4 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:0880% → 79%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.3%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
20.5%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
20.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 12 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
20.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 9 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
20.3%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
20.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to A.D. MillerSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
20.2%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-3
20.3%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
20.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:5721% → 24%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
21.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+17
21.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 17 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
21.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 16 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
22.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
22.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+31
21.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 31 yds to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
23.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+6
23.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 6 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
23.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Mason ReedSimilar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
22.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
23.6%
Clayton Hatfield 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1177% → 76%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.5%
Joe Mixon run for 8 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
23.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for no gain to the Okla 33Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
23.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
23.8%
Austin Seibert punt for 53 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 8 yds to the TexTc 22 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2724% → 23%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
23.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 13Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
23.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
23.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
23.1%
Michael Barden punt for 28 yds, downed at the TexTc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:3277% → 80%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
22.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+46
19.6%
Joe Mixon 46 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:1920% → 29%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Terence Steele) to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-10
19.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Stawarz) to the TexTc 10Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+13
19.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 13 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+14
19.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 14 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
20.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+20
19.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Mason Reed for 20 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
20.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
20.8%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+20
20.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 20 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
21.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
21.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the Okla 24Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+8
20.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 8 yds to the Okla 16Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
20.5%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 2 yds to the Okla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
21.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Okla 11Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
28.8%
Patrick Mahomes II 11 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4574% → 79%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
25.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
25.5%
Joe Mixon run for 26 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
24.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 15 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
23.2%
Abdul Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+15
23.7%
Dede Westbrook run for 15 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
23.5%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
23.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
24.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
21.3%
Austin Seibert 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:1223% → 27%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
22.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Stawarz) to the TexTc 15Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
22.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+24
22.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 24 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
24.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Will Johnson) to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
25.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
25.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 26 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
26.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted Steven Parker return for no gain to the Okla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:4477% → 78%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+33
23.4%
Joe Mixon run for 33 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
22.1%
Abdul Adams run for 16 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
21.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 6 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
21.0%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+14
21.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 14 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
20.9%
Abdul Adams run for no gain to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
21.0%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+9
21.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 9 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
22.3%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:2124% → 42%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
23.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 7 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
23.8%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
24.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 14 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
26.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
26.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+22
26.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 22 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
42.3%
Jonathan Giles 23 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:1163% → 80%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
36.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 52 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
20.2%
Nick Basquine 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4626% → 25%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
25.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
25.2%
Michael Barden punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0977% → 86%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
23.4%
Joe Mixon run for 15 yds to the Okla 47 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 37Similar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+25
22.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dahu Green for 25 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
22.1%
Abdul Adams run for 7 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
21.7%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
22.1%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
13.7%
Dede Westbrook 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:0817% → 30%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
17.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Mason Reed for 21 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
18.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
18.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-5
17.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Paul Stawarz) to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+21
16.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 21 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
18.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
19.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+16
18.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 16 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
19.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Okla 22Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+5
19.6%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-15
19.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 25
OPP 32
+32
30.0%
Reginald Davis III 32 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2976% → 86%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.0%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
23.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 24 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
21.9%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
21.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+43
13.9%
Joe Mixon 43 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3117% → 30%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
17.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
16.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 8 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
17.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 19 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
18.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quan Shorts for 4 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
19.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+3
19.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
20.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Okla 49Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+8
17.8%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
17.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+41
30.3%
Jonathan Giles 41 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:0974% → 92%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
25.7%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+17
25.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 17 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
23.5%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+13
23.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 13 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
22.5%
Joe Mixon run for 8 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+34
8.1%
Dimitri Flowers 34 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3516% → 37%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
15.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Reginald Davis IIISimilar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
14.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quan Shorts for 11 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
15.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
16.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 7 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
16.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
16.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 3 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
15.9%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 10 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
18.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 11 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
18.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 2 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
18.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+22
36.5%
Patrick Mahomes II 22 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3375% → 97%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
23.8%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Okla 34 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bobby Evans) to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
25.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 16 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
22.0%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+26
21.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 26 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
18.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 12 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
18.4%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
3.0%
Joe Mixon 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield Pass to Dede Westbrook for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:067% → 25%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
7.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
6.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 8 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+13
6.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 13 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
7.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
25.0%
Keke Coutee 56 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4282% → 98%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.3%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
18.5%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
15.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 16 yds to the TEXASTECH 48 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Baker Mayfield) to the Okla 37Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 9
OWN 37
0
17.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+17
16.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 17 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
12.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mykel Jones for 4 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
2.2%
Joe Mixon 42 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 3:094% → 24%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+18
4.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 18 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
3.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 17 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
3.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
3.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
3.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 4 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
3.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quan Shorts for 12 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
4.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 13 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
4.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+5
4.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the Okla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
4.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 5 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
3.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.5%
Cameron Batson 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 2 yds · 1:2496% → 95%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
4.1%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
2.3%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
2.2%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 15
OPP 40
-5
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:38
Cameron Batson 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
+19.6
TD · Q4 7:56
Keke Coutee 56 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes II (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
+17.9
TD · Q4 12:57
Patrick Mahomes II 22 Yd Run (Clayton Hatfield Kick)
+17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com