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Oklahoma 52 at TCU 46

TCU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:52 · Austin Seibert punt for 49 yds, downed at the TCU 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior−14.6Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:21: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 67 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +9.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:20: Joe Mixon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +13.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:29: Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 64 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +7.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:08: Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +11.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:36: Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 74 yds for a TD, (Kenny Hill pass to Emanuel Porter for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +30.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:52OU 4th & 1 at OU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:36OU 4th & 6 at OU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:21TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:58TCU 4th & 4 at OU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:35TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 16, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:08TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:42TCU 4th & 21 at TCU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:12TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:20TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 30, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:22OU 4th & 1 at OU 44, up 25
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:47OU 4th & 6 at OU 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:46OU 4th & 7 at OU 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:55OU 4th & 4 at TCU 18, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%−1.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−22.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:15TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 18, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 14:11TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:39OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:29TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:42TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:54OU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:23OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:21OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:30OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 12:20OU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:11OU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:29TCU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:08TCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:36TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:3865% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.8%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
35.0%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-11
35.1%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Denzel Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the Okla 18 Baker Mayfield fumbled, recovered by TCU Travin Howard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
35.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 18 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1365% → 63%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
35.7%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
35.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mykel Jones for 7 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
36.0%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
36.4%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 47Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
36.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 49 yds, downed at the TCU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3437% → 39%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
37.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+3
37.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 3 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+11
37.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 11 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-14
38.5%
Kenny Hill sacked by Kapri Doucet for a loss of 14 yards to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 24
OWN 5
+15
38.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 15 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+12
39.1%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Steven Parker return for 12 yds to the TCU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:1662% → 64%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
38.3%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+8
38.5%
Samaje Perine run for 8 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.8%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the TCU 4Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:5938% → 43%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
37.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
37.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 15 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
38.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+41
38.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 41 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
39.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
39.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 11 yds to the Okla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
39.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Okla 3Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Cole Hunt for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4058% → 56%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.1%
Dede Westbrook run for 4 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
42.1%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
43.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 13 yds to the Okla 39 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
43.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
44.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 50 yds , Desmon White returns for 2 yds to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:4644% → 50%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
43.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Darius Anderson for 1 yd to the TCU 24 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.6%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
44.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+61
50.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 61 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2851% → 56%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.8%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
49.3%
Samaje Perine run for 29 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
48.7%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+26
49.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 26 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
48.8%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
49.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 7 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
44.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:1847% → 47%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
46.5%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
46.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-5
47.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+11
47.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 11 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+29
47.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Joe Mixon at the OKLAHOMA 32 TCU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Okla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:4954% → 61%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
46.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mykel Jones for 1 yd to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+13
47.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 13 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
46.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 11 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
46.0%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
46.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+16
47.4%
Samaje Perine run for 16 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
46.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jordan Smallwood for 4 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
39.0%
Samaje Perine 8 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:1743% → 46%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Deante GraySimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
43.2%
Kenny Hill run for 13 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
44.3%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
45.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
45.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 7 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
46.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 13 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
46.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 5 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
47.9%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+1
47.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
46.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:2958% → 68%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
41.9%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+67
32.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 67 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3234% → 33%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
34.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 16
-5
34.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
34.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+5
33.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 5 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
33.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:5567% → 76%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
32.6%
Mayfield, Baker rush for no gain to the OKLAHOMA43, PENALTY OKLAHOMA unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+7
33.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 7 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+22
33.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 22 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
31.0%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
24.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0725% → 24%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
26.0%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
24.9%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
24.2%
Adam Nunez punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Joe Mixon at the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1376% → 79%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
23.7%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
22.3%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+13
21.9%
Samaje Perine run for 13 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
21.2%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Joseph Broadnax for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 35 Baker Mayfield fumbled, recovered by TCU Tipa Galeai , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18END OF HALF
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:2927% → 30%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
26.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 16 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
26.1%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+13
25.8%
Kenny Hill run for 13 yds to the Okla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
29.8%
Brandon Hatfield 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:0626% → 24%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
26.7%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
25.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 12 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
27.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
26.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 15
OWN 36
-6
26.0%
Kenny Hill sacked by Matt Romar for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 21
OWN 30
0
24.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 21
OWN 30
0
24.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Joe Mixon at the Okla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:0975% → 88%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+65
25.3%
Joe Mixon run for 65 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.1%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0016% → 15%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
15.3%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
14.8%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
14.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds, downed at the Okla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
15 plays · 58 yds · 6:5188% → 99%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
11.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
50
+11
11.0%
Joe Mixon run for 11 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
11.1%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+6
10.8%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
10.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 5 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
10.1%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
9.5%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+6
9.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 6 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
9.0%
Mayfield, Baker rush for 2 yards to the TCU15, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 10 yards to the TCU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+3
8.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 3 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+9
8.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 9 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+8
8.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 8 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
7.4%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Andrews, Mark, PENALTY TCU pass interference 5 yards to the TCU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.3%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.8%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
1.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
1.0%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-2
1.0%
Deante Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
0.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Joe Mixon at the Okla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4999% → 99%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
0.6%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 33Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
0.6%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+12
0.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 12 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
0.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 0:441% → 8%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
0.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
0.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 4 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+10
0.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 10 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
0.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+64
8.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 64 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2196% → 96%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
4.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 5 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
4.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 9 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
4.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+5
4.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
4.0%
Austin Seibert punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:325% → 17%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
5.4%
John Diarse pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
4.9%
Kenny Hill run for 11 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
5.2%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
5.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+16
5.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 16 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
5.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 37 yds to the Okla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
5.7%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 3Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
5.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Okla 2Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0189% → 92%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
9.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for no gain to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
9.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for no gain to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
8.3%
Austin Seibert punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Desmon White at the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
38.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 74 yds for a TD, (Kenny Hill pass to Emanuel Porter for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:2472% → 92%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
27.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-4 Yards) to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+25
27.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 25 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
22.4%
Baker Mayfield run for no gain to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
21.8%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+8
18.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
16.4%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
14.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
11.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to A.D. MillerSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
7.6%
Austin Seibert 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31DOWNS
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:4018% → 13%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
17.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 15
OWN 23
-8
16.6%
Kenny Hill sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 23
OWN 15
0
16.3%
TCU Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 23
OWN 15
+9
14.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 9 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 14
OWN 24
-6
14.1%
Kenny Hill sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
13.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-1
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:36
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 74 yds for a TD, (Kenny Hill pass to Emanuel Porter for Two-Point Conversion)
+30.5
TD · Q3 12:20
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q4 8:08
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com