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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreULM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:50 · Austin Seibert punt for 52 yds , Marcus Green returns for 25 yds to the LaMon 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:53: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — ULM win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:07: Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:49: Joe Mixon run for no gain Jarvis Baxter for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:03: Samaje Perine run for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:41: Austin Seibert 39 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
- Q1 12:53ULM 4th & 2 at OU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%57% to convertField goal0.8%−0.142% to makePunt0.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:17ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 10, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 3:07ULM 4th & 4 at OU 45, down 21Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.1%48% to convertField goal0.9%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call1.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:49ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 37, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 13:16OU 4th & 18 at OU 44, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q2 11:13ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 17, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 9:17ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 47, down 35Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:31OU 4th & 20 at midfield, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q2 4:28ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 13, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 9:41OU 4th & 15 at ULM 22, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%72% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 7:50OU 4th & 21 at OU 30, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 3:06ULM 4th & 10 at OU 26, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%64% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 2:31ULM 4th & 10 at OU 28, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.129% to convertField goal0.1%60% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 15:00OU 4th & 3 at OU 44, up 28Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:48ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 21, down 28Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:01ULM 4th & 5 at OU 47, down 42Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:53OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:17OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:07OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:17OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03OU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:41ULM Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:50ULM Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:26OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:01OU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 8 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 9 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+39
99.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2DOWNS7 plays · 39 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 13 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kyle Nevels for 6 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
99.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Kyle Nevels, broken up by Jordan EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD8 plays · 64 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q1 10:18
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+9
99.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to A.D. Miller for 9 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+15
99.1%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Flowers, D., PENALTY ULM pass interference (Day, Chase) 15 yards to the ULM14, 1ST DOWN OU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
99.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+8
99.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 8 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-10
99.1%
Smith, Garrett pass complete to Green, Marcus for 18 yards to the ULM38 (Thomas, Ahmad), PENALTY ULM holding 10 yards to the ULM10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 17
OWN 10
+49
99.1%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 49 yds , Jarvis Baxter returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5099% → 99%
Q1 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 6 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 1 yd to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+21
99.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 21 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
99.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 16 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 11
OPP 0
0
99.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the LaMon 48Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+7
99.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 7 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
99.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rj Turner, broken up by Jordan ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD6 plays · 80 yds · 1:2999% → 100%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to A.D. Miller for 11 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.5%
Joe Mixon run for no gain Jarvis Baxter for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 10 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Jordan EvansSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+7
99.5%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 52 yds , Joe Mixon returns for 7 yds to the Okla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
ULMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
OUDrive 11TD1 play · 62 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 62 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.6%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST down Marcus Green for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+5
99.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 6 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
99.7%
Mayfield, Baker pass complete to Lewis, Geno for 21 yards to the ULM19 (Amoako, Stephen), PENALTY OU holding (Evans, Bobby) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 20
50
0
99.6%
Austin Seibert punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+2
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to De'Vonte Haggerty for 2 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+2
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ben Luckett for 2 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+15
99.8%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 52 yds , Joe Mixon returns for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD5 plays · 50 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q2 2:18
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+29
99.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 29 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST down Baker Mayfield pass complete Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 29 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST down Baker Mayfield pass complete Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 29 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST down Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 29 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
99.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 15 yds to the LaMon 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16END OF HALF9 plays · 30 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 12 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:190% → 0%
OUDrive 18FG12 plays · 43 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q3 13:41
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+13
99.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Nick Basquine for 13 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+16
99.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Abdul Adams for 16 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-7
99.8%
Austin Kendall sacked by Chase Day for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kyle Nevels for 14 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Alec Osborne for 43 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
ULMDrive 21FG8 plays · 31 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+17
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 17 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 12 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+2
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 2 yds to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Mykel Jones for 6 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
Austin Kendall sacked by Shaquille Warren for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 28 Austin Kendall fumbled, recovered by LaMon Tyler Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23DOWNS4 plays · -9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q3 1:09
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Mykel Jones for 5 yds to the Okla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:48
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeffery Mead at the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+17
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Jordan Smallwood for 17 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+18
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Mykel Jones for 18 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Mykel Jones for 8 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to A.D. Miller for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27FUMBLE4 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
99.9%
Will Collins sacked by Neville Gallimore for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 21 Will Collins fumbled, recovered by Okla Ricky DeBerry , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28TD4 plays · 21 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+7
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Mykel Jones for 7 yds to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Mykel Jones for 4 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 29PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OUDrive 30END OF GAME7 plays · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Nick Basquine for 5 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
100.0%
Adams, Abdul rush for 3 yards to the 50 yardline (Sisco, Cortez), PENALTY OU personal foul (Hartsook, Dylan) 15 yards to the OU32, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:49
Joe Mixon run for no gain Jarvis Baxter for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q1 12:53
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
-0.1
TD · Q1 3:07
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+0.1