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KSU

Kansas State 30 at TCU 6

TCU
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:12 · Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense−19.8Score differential−10.4Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:17: Jesse Ertz run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:09: Brandon Hatfield 40 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +2.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:01: Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 83 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:22: Justin Silmon run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson PAT MISSED) — KSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:53: Justin Silmon run for no gain to the KanSt 35 — KSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:56KSU 4th & 7 at TCU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49TCU 4th & 3 at KSU 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:46KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:12TCU 4th & 12 at KSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:43TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:27KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:27TCU 4th & 16 at TCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:15TCU 4th & 10 at KSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09TCU 4th & 12 at KSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:52TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:55TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 37, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:12TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 34, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:04KSU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:16TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00KSU 4th & 6 at TCU 42, up 17
    Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−1.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:46TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:53KSU 4th & 20 at KSU 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:55TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:27TCU 4th & 14 at KSU 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 9:17KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:01KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:22KSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:32KSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:0438% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
61.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
61.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 12 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
61.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron Pringle, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
61.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 8 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+5
61.9%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
61.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 29 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
61.9%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
61.9%
Charles Jones run for 1 yd to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
61.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
61.9%
Winston Dimel run for 5 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-2
61.9%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
61.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
61.3%
Ian Patterson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
61.3%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+4
61.3%
Foster Sawyer run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+20
61.1%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Deante Gray for 20 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Desmon White for no gain to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
61.6%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+10
61.3%
Foster Sawyer run for 10 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
61.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+6
61.9%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to John Diarse for 6 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
61.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
61.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds, downed at the KanSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
61.0%
Justin Silmon run for 1 yd to the KanSt 4Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+9
61.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
60.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
60.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete, broken up by Chris BradleySimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+5
61.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 2
OWN 21
+13
61.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 36 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 13 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:4361% → 61%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.3%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
61.2%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 14 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
61.7%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Desmon White for 3 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
61.7%
Foster Sawyer run for 4 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+11
61.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (11 Yards) to the KanSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
61.7%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 14Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 12
OPP 14
0
61.7%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
61.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+31
61.3%
Brandon Hatfield 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0639% → 39%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
60.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
60.7%
Dalvin Warmack run for no gain to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+12
61.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 12 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
60.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for 2 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
59.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
59.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+5
60.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 45 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 5 yds to the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
61.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
61.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Taj Williams for 4 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
61.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.6%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
61.5%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+4
60.7%
Foster Sawyer run for 4 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-8
60.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 28 yds , Byron Pringle returns for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
59.9%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
59.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-5
60.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+7
61.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 36 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 7 yds to the TCU 33 TCU Penalty, illegal block (Sammy Douglas) to the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.6%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
61.4%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Deante GraySimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-8
60.6%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 29 Foster Sawyer fumbled, recovered by TCU Foster Sawyer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
59.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:1841% → 51%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
58.8%
Justin Silmon run for 35 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Deante Burton) to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
57.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+32
49.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
51.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 27 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
54.4%
TCU Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
52.6%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+13
51.9%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 13 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
53.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
54.3%
Sawyer, Foster pass complete to Stewart, J. for 3 yards to the KS46, out-of-bounds (Lee, Elijah), PENALTY TCU holding (White, Desmon) 10 yards to the TCU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 20
OWN 41
-1
52.5%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 21
OWN 40
+13
52.3%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Desmon White for 13 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-2
53.5%
Foster Sawyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
51.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:0051% → 54%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
48.8%
Justin Silmon run for 11 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
48.4%
Justin Silmon run for 15 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
46.7%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
46.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 6 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
47.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 4 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
46.3%
Winston Dimel run for 9 yds to the TCU 37 Winston Dimel fumbled, forced by Niko Small, recovered by TCU Nick OrrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 3:0249% → 50%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
48.5%
Foster Sawyer run for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
49.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
49.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
50.3%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+11
51.1%
Darius Anderson run for 11 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
52.2%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
50.3%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to John Diarse for 7 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
48.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 5 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-6
50.5%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 16
OPP 27
+4
48.5%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Trevorris Johnson for 4 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
47.7%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Desmon White, broken up by Elijah LeeSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
49.6%
Brandon Hatfield 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
47.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.3%
Deante Gray run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
53.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
54.0%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to John Diarse, broken up by Trent TankingSimilar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
51.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:5850% → 62%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
50.5%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
51.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron Pringle, broken up by Julius LewisSimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+83
38.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 83 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
37.2%
Kenny Hill run for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-2
38.3%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
36.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:4865% → 82%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
34.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Scott Frantz) to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+26
35.5%
Justin Silmon run for 26 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
33.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 31 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
33.2%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
33.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 4 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+11
33.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 11 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.5%
Justin Silmon run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1022% → 22%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
21.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
21.5%
Kenny Hill sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
21.3%
Kenny Hill run for 15 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
21.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
18.3%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
18.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 9 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
17.5%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
17.4%
Justin Silmon run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 3
50
0
17.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 3
50
0
18.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
17.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Daniel WalshSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
17.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+4
17.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 4 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
18.0%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
18.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 3 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
18.3%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
18.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+3
17.9%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 3 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5390% → 91%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
9.6%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the KanSt 35Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
9.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 19 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
8.9%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
9.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
7.9%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
8.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
13.2%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
13.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
13.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dominique Heath at the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
7.5%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
7.5%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 32Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
7.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
7.1%
Silmon, Justin rush for no gain to the KS41 (Douglas, Sammy), PENALTY KS personal foul (Mitchell, Tyler) 15 yards to the KS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+3
7.4%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 22
OWN 29
+2
7.6%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 20
OWN 31
0
7.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante Burton, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 20
OWN 31
-7
7.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 47 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
6.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
6.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
6.6%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+8
6.6%
Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 8 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:1396% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
4.3%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
4.3%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+10
4.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 10 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
4.2%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+4
4.3%
Justin Silmon run for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+19
4.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for 19 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
4.3%
Justin Silmon run for 4 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
4.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 4 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
1.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
1.3%
Justin Silmon run for 7 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.4%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26INT
10 plays · 69 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+39
0.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 39 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
1.1%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+15
1.2%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Williams, Taj, PENALTY KS pass interference (Reed, D.J.) 15 yards to the KS16, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
1.2%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 17Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-10
1.2%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to Anderson, D. for 6 yards to the KS11 (Tanking, Trent), PENALTY TCU holding (Noteboom, J.) 10 yards to the KS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 21
OPP 27
0
1.1%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 21
OPP 27
+7
1.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 7 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+15
1.0%
Kenny Hill run for 15 yds to the KanSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+11
1.3%
Foster Sawyer pass intercepted Trent Tanking return for 11 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:22
Justin Silmon run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson PAT MISSED)
-15.2
TD · Q3 13:01
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 83 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q2 9:17
Jesse Ertz run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com