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OKST

Oklahoma State 43 at Kansas State 37

KSU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:13 · Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Austin Hays
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.2Pregame prior+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:20: Duke Shelley 29 Yd Interception Return (Ian Patterson Kick) — KSU win probability +19.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 0:41: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 34 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +23.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:21: Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:45: Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 82 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +23.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Chris Carson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jalen McCleskey pass to Rennie Childs for Two-Point Conversion) — OKST win probability +48.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:13OKST 4th & 1 at KSU 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:54KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:19KSU 4th & 14 at OKST 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−4.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:47KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 48, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:42OKST 4th & 4 at KSU 49, up 5
    Close callPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:14KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 24, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:05KSU 4th & 4 at OKST 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−12.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:41OKST 4th & 15 at KSU 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−2.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:16KSU 4th & 1 at OKST 48, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:35KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 33, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−2.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:20KSU 4th & 4 at OKST 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−7.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−10.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:20KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:58KSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:58OKST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:42OKST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:44OKST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:20KSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:34KSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:41OKST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:21KSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:45OKST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−1.0
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:46OKST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2555% → 58%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.9%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
54.9%
Charles Jones run for 14 yds to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
55.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 14 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
55.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
55.5%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
55.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 7 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
55.8%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
55.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
56.0%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+11
56.2%
Charles Jones run for 11 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
57.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:4843% → 42%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
57.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 19 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
56.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+13
57.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 13 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
56.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
56.7%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
57.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
57.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Austin HaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:0859% → 66%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
58.4%
Ertz, Jesse pass incomplete to Burton, Deante, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Pipkins, Lenzy) 15 yards to the OKLAST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
59.2%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
59.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+32
59.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 32 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
60.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 4 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
65.6%
Winston Dimel run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4037% → 42%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
63.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 7 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
63.4%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+48
64.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 48 yds to the KanSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
64.1%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
58.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5660% → 61%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 8 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
61.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 9 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
61.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 4 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
61.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Abdul Beecham) to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-2
61.6%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Motekiai Maile for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+5
61.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
60.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:0739% → 47%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
61.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 12 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
61.0%
Chris Carson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
60.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 4 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+5
60.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
53.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 54 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:0455% → 60%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
55.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 5 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
54.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 5 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
55.6%
Charles Jones run for 35 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
58.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 6 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
58.7%
Byron Pringle run for 3 yds to the OKSt 23 Byron Pringle fumbled, forced by Gyasi Akem, recovered by KanSt Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
57.7%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
59.0%
Dalvin Warmack run for 6 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-5
59.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Tom Killilea) to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+1
59.2%
Dalvin Warmack run for 1 yd to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-6
57.3%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Vincent Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+43
59.5%
Ian Patterson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2141% → 56%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
58.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 42 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
55.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 5 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
55.4%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+21
56.4%
Mason Rudolph run for 21 yds to the KanSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
55.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Zachary Crabtree) to the KanSt 10Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-9
55.4%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Jordan Willis for a loss of 9 yards to the KanSt 19Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
56.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+13
57.8%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the KanSt 12 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (D.J. Reed) to the KanSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
55.4%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2150% → 50%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
49.8%
Justin Silmon run for 6 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
50.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 1 yd to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
50.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
49.9%
Nick Walsh punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:3552% → 58%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
47.8%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+6
47.1%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
46.7%
Sanders, Barry rush for 3 yards to the OKLAST20, PENALTY KANSASST holding (Crabtree, Zachary) 8 yards to the OKLAST9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+1
46.0%
Barry Sanders run for 1 yd to the OKSt 10Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+26
44.2%
Barry Sanders run for 26 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
42.2%
Barry Sanders run for 7 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:0956% → 57%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.9%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
43.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 10 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
41.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 6 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
40.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
41.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
42.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Byron Pringle at the KanSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2145% → 42%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
44.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
44.1%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+7
42.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 7 yds to the KanSt 24Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
42.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 37 yds to the OKSt 39, Barry Sanders returns for no gain, Barry Sanders fumbled, recovered by KanSt Elijah LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:4948% → 45%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
47.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+24
47.2%
Justin Silmon run for 24 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
48.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds to the OKSt 7Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 1
OPP 7
-5
48.8%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 12Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+2
46.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Justin Silmon for 2 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 4
OPP 10
0
44.7%
Mitch Lochbihler run for no gain to the OKSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14INT TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3559% → 40%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
41.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 4 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+29
60.3%
Duke Shelley 29 Yd Interception Return (Ian Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:2940% → 39%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.0%
Jalen McCleskey run for no gain to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 12 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
58.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Carson for 6 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
56.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 6 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
56.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 11 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
56.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Marcus Keyes) to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+3
57.5%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-10
57.2%
Rudolph, Mason rush for 7 yards to the KANSASST35, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Lundblade, Brad) 10 yards to the OKLAST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+7
59.1%
Mason Rudolph run for 7 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
59.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
61.4%
TEAM punt for 7 yds, downed at the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5666% → 83%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+29
65.6%
Alex Barnes run for 14 yds to the KANSASST 48 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ramon Richards) to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
66.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 11 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
66.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-4
66.8%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Derrick Moncrief) to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
67.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 6 yds to the OKSt 2Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.8%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4720% → 46%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
79.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+15
80.6%
Chris Carson run for 15 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
78.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 17 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
54.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 34 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:4166% → 85%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
65.6%
Alex Barnes run for 27 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
68.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
68.7%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
68.7%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
68.8%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+10
68.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 10 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4316% → 16%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
83.7%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
84.2%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted D.J. Reed return for no gain to the KanSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5783% → 85%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
83.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 9 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
85.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
85.8%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
86.5%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
86.2%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the OKSt 48Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
85.2%
Nick Walsh punt for 40 yds, downed at the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:1714% → 37%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
86.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 10 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
62.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 82 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4365% → 67%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
65.0%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
66.9%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 35Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-2
69.9%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
67.4%
Nick Walsh punt for 47 yds, downed at the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3638% → 94%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
62.1%
Mason Rudolph run for 3 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+18
62.4%
Chris Carson run for 18 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
60.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 14 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
57.4%
Mason Rudolph run for 4 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+11
57.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 11 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
55.5%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+8
54.5%
Justice Hill run for 8 yds to the KanSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
6.0%
Chris Carson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jalen McCleskey pass to Rennie Childs for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24INT
15 plays · 43 yds · 1:3120% → 15%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
19.5%
Jesse Ertz run for 7 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+9
21.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 9 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
22.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 25 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
28.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
25.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 9 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-3
22.2%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 14Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+6
17.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 6 yds to the OKSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
23.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
19.7%
Ertz, Jesse pass complete to Heath, Dominique for 2 yards to the OKLAST1, PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Pringle, Byron) 15 yards to the OKLAST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
0
14.8%
Jesse Ertz pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Sterns return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:46
Chris Carson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jalen McCleskey pass to Rennie Childs for Two-Point Conversion)
-48.5
TD · Q3 0:41
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 34 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-23.6
TD · Q4 7:45
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 82 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-23.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com